Imperial59
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Red Sox Spring Training thread
Imperial59 replied to riverside sluggers's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Ortiz says he's ready to do damage next year: He says he wasn't comfortable last year: And he sounds like he wants back into the third spot in the order, when asked about whether he'd get the protection he wants next year, he said: http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2010/02/ortiz_ready_to.html This sounds like a man on a mission. He he is able to post a .900+ OPS as he's been able to do over the majority of his career, we'd have a lethal offense to go with our lethal rotation and defense. If not, we'll still have a top 5 offense as we did last year. -
Lee lives and dies with his command and Beckett lives and dies with his velocity. Lee could stand to bring his hit rates down and Beckett could stand to bring his home run rates down. I wouldn't be all that disappointed if we sign either one, but traditionally it's been the finesse pitchers that age better than the power guys and I think that's why most of the posters here seem to prefer Lee.
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He had his own fangraphs article devoted to how "good" he is.
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And I never said that you said that I said the Yankees depserately needed a starter I simply said that I think people are expecting Park to do better than a 3.90 FIP.
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I never said anything about the Yankees desperately needing a reliever. I just said that I think people are expecting him to do better than a 3.90 ERA as a reliever
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He's 1.5 years older.
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What was the best cumulative FIP? That's the stats we're discussing. EDIT: Answered my own question, it's 3.35. I'm sure a FIP of 3.90 is above average for a reliever, I just doubt it's above average by a significant margin.
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I'd feel differently if we were talking about Javier Vazquez who had a 4.67 ERA in 2008 and then a 2.87 ERA last year because a larger sample size would probably be needed to determine which year is more representative of their career abilities. But Lee and Beckett have been pretty consistent the last two years.
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It can't be much more than .30 points better than league average for a relief pitcher. I think people are expecting him to be better than a 5th reliever or a depth signing because he had an ERA in the 2's last year as a reliever. But a 3.90 FIP isn't anything special for a reliever.
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I wouldn't give anything much more than two years ago much relevance when considering the ability of a starting pitcher, especially when they just entered their prime 2-3 years ago.
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We could post these sabermetrics until we're blue in the face but Lee has had the better FIP, tRA+ and WAR over the last two years by a rather safe margin and I believe his pitching style ages better. I'd much rather sign him than sign Beckett to a long-term deal.
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Red Sox Spring Training thread
Imperial59 replied to riverside sluggers's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
He's supposedly going to throw on a daily basis now so we shall see. -
I think he gets a bad rep because he has an American League ERA of 5.79 and he's posted ERA's of 4.43, 3.40, 15.75, 4.81 and 5.74 over the last five years.
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How is a 3.90 FIP good for a reliever?
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Red Sox Spring Training thread
Imperial59 replied to riverside sluggers's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Per rotoworld -
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The exact opposite of a power hitter? I think Jason Kendall, David Eckstein and Randy Winn's power stats are just a slight bit worse
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I agree with you Jacko. I'd rather sign Lee for all the reasons you've stated in this thread. He's the better pitcher now and I think he'll be the better pitcher over the long haul.
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I'll ask permission next time I post the chart Yeah, the wrist is certainly complicated but it's hard not to get a little excited about the possibility of what he could do if he was healthy. He was one of our top prospects before he got hurt.
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Lowrie's a good candidate. A guy with a ton a talent who's been held back by injury the last couple years. And his ability to play third could make him a good backup.
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We know, we know... [table]Topic|Player Leaves|Team|Content Prospect|Yankees|The player in question is made of 150% pure awesomeness. Fear us. Prospect|Sox|He could be good, but this is why he won't be. Signing|Yankees|This is the missing piece. We'll win 160 games, and the umps will screw us out of 2. Signing|Sox|Risky move, overpaid here, they'll regret this. Injury|Yankees|They don't get hurt. Hypothetically, if they did, the recovery will be speedy with no impact to ability. Injury|Sox|Everyone is a ticking time bomb. Once hurt, they'll never heal right. Player Leaves|Yankees|They are better off without him, he was hurt/too old/sucked Player Leaves|Redsox|They are really gunna regret it, he wasnt all that hurt/hes still young/He has a lot left in the tank.[/table]