Here's my take.
Beltre - 5% likely to return. I'd put it was 0%, but I felt optimistic. In any event, Beltre has played way too good to want what Boston wants to give him, and with Boras as his agent, he's definitely going to want to test the market. He's a type A, so Boston won't mind getting the draft picks, and I think that Boston would be concerned to sign Beltre to a long term deal because of potential inconsistencies between contract years. I think that this is another chapter in the "sign a veteran looking for a chance to redeem himself" phase.
V-mart - 75% likely to return. I really think the Sox are going to give V-mart close to what he wants. The Red Sox really do need a catcher, and even if he might better be served as a 1B/DH, I think that the Sox will give into his demands in order to ensure his production behind the plate and fit more powerful options at 1B/DH/3B etc. I think that signing him would be more beneficial than letting him go for 2 draft picks and starting Salty.
Ortiz - 85% likely to return. At the beginning of the season, I was going to say 5-10% since there'd be no shot at him getting the $12 million option, but now, he's played well enough that the Sox may either take the option and then end the Ortiz chapter in Boston history, or they may decline the option and sign him to a longer year/smaller AAV type contract. In any event, I definitely see him in Boston for at least one more year.