FanGraphs ranks Mayer 69th and Teel 80th in most recent top 100.
Mayer has now had two years of underlying issues and we’re starting to worry.
The pandemic definitely made it more difficult to evaluate Mayer’s draft class, but it’s still pretty shocking that this particular player, who for so long seemed like a lock to be a slugging big league shortstop, has now had two years of scary underlying issues against secondary stuff. Even as he hit .286/.406/.504 at Low-A and .280/.371/.494 at High-A across his first 126 full-season games, all as a young-for-the-level hitter, Mayer has had pretty gnarly splits against offspeed and breaking pitches for the past two seasons. His offensive performance collapsed when he was promoted to Double-A Portland and he was shut down in early August with a left shoulder impingement and inflammation. Synergy Sports has Mayer slashing .154/.221/.269 against secondary pitches in 2023, but with a .795 OPS versus fastballs. While Marcelo’s hands are explosive and powerful, his front side is so upright and stiff through contact that it makes it tough for him to cover the bottom of the strike zone. He swings over the top of a ton of softer stuff in the strike zone. There are players who have remedied similar issues in recent years — such as Max Muncy and seemingly Spencer Torkelson — and the ceiling on Marcelo’s power output is huge if he can do so too.
Compounding things was a regression in his defense. Mayer was a bit boxier than the usual elite shortstop prospect, but his hands and actions were so skillful and polished that he seemed likely to play there despite middling range. Perhaps because his mobility was compromised from the general discomfort of a shoulder issue, Mayer’s range backed up in 2023. His footwork and actions are still very polished, but his range and arm were on the fringe. He may be able to play short if just one of those traits is an issue, but probably not both. Again, there are recent examples of players who have undergone a rapid physical transformation while still a prospect (be it Bo Bichette and Julio Rodríguez in a helpful way, Kevin Maitan in a seemingly detrimental way), and it feels like Mayer is perhaps at a fork in the road of this kind. Lefty-hitting shortstops with plus power are rare, and we want to signal some alarm here while still holding Mayer’s grade in a place that values his upside in the event that this stuff gets resolved. Because of the missing 2020 summer, we aren’t long from Mayer having been frustrating for a longer than he was good, and whether or not he looks much better out of the gate in Fort Myers is an important thing to monitor. We will probably have a quick hook here here if things don’t look good.
f***ing LOL.
Teel is a decorated college catcher with a fabulous offensive resume.
Teel’s high school senior season was wiped out by the pandemic, and he ended up opting out of that year’s draft in favor of committing to UVA, where he spent three years maturing as a hitter and tapping into his power. His 2023 stats were eye-popping, with a .418/.484/.673 slash line that helped earn him the 14th overall selection in last year’s draft. Teel climbed through Boston’s minor league system after being drafted, spending time on the complex and at High-A before wrapping up the season at Double-A; he finished the year with a 173 wRC+ across those three levels. That’s especially impressive given that he had already played a full season of college baseball before that, and as a catcher no less.
His swing is not particularly aesthetically pleasing, with enough violence to knock his helmet clean off with virtually every hack, but given the results it has yielded, it seems to be working well enough for him not to mess with it too much at this point, especially given how quick his hands are and how well he’s able to get his barrel on balls throughout the zone. While Teel’s chase rate crept up over the course of his college career (it was an uncomfortably high 28% his junior year), his early days as a professional haven’t been as plagued by chase as that would imply, though the sample is of course rather small.
Teel’s defensive movements are also rather mechanically maniacal, with a ton of extraneous movement as the pitcher completes his windup. Unlike the ain’t-broke-don’t-fix-it approach to his offensive mechanics, his defense may need to be simplified as he’s tasked with receiving more advanced arsenals as he progresses. Teel’s arm is strong, but as with the rest of his movements, it’s an atypical look for a catcher, as he slings the ball from a sidearm slot that at times looks more like an off-balance cross-diamond throw from a shortstop. Odd duck as he may be across the board, Teel nevertheless presents a well-rounded overall profile and seems likely to stick at catcher.
