Tax difference between SP and Spotrac is only 6M and it seems to be in player benefits/MiLB pay. My guess it that the same assumptions carry over to TOR payroll tax.
What would push them over would be a considerable extension to Crochet that begins this season. The Devers extension began in the following season. If they extend one of Campbell or Anthony, I think that still leaves them behind TOR in the absence of other moves. If they extend both of them, it would likely push them over. They are edging closer to the 2nd CBT and we don't know if they have an appetite to go over that. THEY SHOULD since they have a lot of payroll coming off the books next offseason (50M+).