The easier way to look at it is:
2002: no CBT
2003: under
2004: over
2005: over
2006: over
2007: over
2008: under
2009: under
2010: over
2011: over
2012: under
2013: under
2014: under
2015: over
2016: over
2017: under
2018: over
2019: over
2020: under
2021: under
2022: over for now
It's hard to really say if they'll go over again this year or try to go under. They reset for 1 - 3 years it seems like. If they stay over, I guess they go over in 2023 and then get back under in 2024? It's hard to really forecast. It's not as simple as moon is making it out to seem. If they go for it with younger core teams, why didn't they go over in 2009? There was no difference between that team and 2010 really. They reset in 2020, so why not go over in 2021 when you still have JD/Xander/Raffy? If they are waiting for the next young core to mature, that might not be until 2024 or 2025. Will they go over in 22 and 23 and then force themselves to get under in 24 when they could have a young core? Who knows! Not us.