Dipre

I don't bitch. I point and laugh. You get pissed. I keep attacking you and laughing. You're a troll, and i'm trolling you back. Get it now, troll?

You mean what you do mr. strawman and cop-out? The premise is ridiculous. The Sox were a bad road club last year, but trying to "predict" their road production for 2010 is downright laughable. But oh wait, it's coming from you, so it's the norm.....

You mean the reactionary posts? Oh yeah, those.

The irony is delicious.

Also signed Vlad Guerrero to a one-year contract with an option and several performance bonuses. http://rangersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2010/01/rangers-agree-to-terms-with-guerrero.html

I agree with this. But not with this. To score runs, you need to get on base. The only way to score runs without getting on base first is via the homerun, which is not a viable strategy, therefore, a hitter's main objective is to get on base, since every time you don't make an out, you increase the chances of scoring a run.

The bench will also be very much upgraded. Hermida, Hall, Varitek, and Lowell/Signee is a pretty good bench with Lowrie waiting in the wings.

Well i did mention "full year of Bucholz" for one. And i didn't try WAR because it also accounts for defense, and i wanted to look at each area individually. Otherwise, agree with you 100%.

3.23 xFIP. Start throwing the splitter again.

You lose the feel for it for the entire season? I call BS. There has to be another reason.

While i agree with you on this, it's still puzzling why he abandoned his splitter.

Area-to-area comparison of the 2009-2010 (Projected) Boston Red Sox: Offense: We'll use OPS ranks from last year, with the exception of Scutaro, who will be adjusted to his career averages: 2009: CF: .755(17th) 2B: .818(7th) c: .754(9th 1B: .874(11th) DH: .780(7th AL) LF: .916(1st) RF: .912(1st) 3B: .841(5th) SS: .653(21st) There are some variables created by last year's roster turmoil, namely in the 1B/3B conondrum with Youkilis shifting between them, but they pretty much even each other out. 2010: CF:.780 2B:.803 C: .822 1B:.945 DH:.765 LF:.740 RF:.897 3B:.765 SS:.705 There are two caveats, number one is not including the whole 162 game sample as in 2009 for 2010, which is impossible, because it's hard to predict how backups will behave, however, upon further research, i noticed that the actual input of backups has little bearing on the positional outcome unless for outside factors (injuries), and Catcher, which i played it by V-Mart's .837 career average instead of his .861 number from last year, since i assume he will get days off against some lefties in favor of Varitek, who can still swing the stick against them, but is still a drop-off from Martinez. I also substracted .015 OPS points per position to make up for inevitable "backup" appearances, which i believe evens it out as much as possible. Now let's see if you actually lose or gain OPS by simply averaging out the nine positions (This is not based on AB's, but rather a simple mathematical equation to show a point). 2009: .811 (806 actual, other factors like pitcher AB's factor into the equation). 2010: .802 The actual outcome is obviously not as simple as this, since the 2009 second-half lineup was obviously more potent. But what this looks to point out is that even though a lot of offense was lost from Bay, a lot of it is going to be regained from a full season of V-Mart and not having a black hole at SS. This is an attempt to show how the lineup, while not superior to last year's final product, it's still superior to what some characters would lead you to believe. It's a good lineup. It's going to get on base and hit for power, although not up to 2009 standards, however, simple logic would lead you to believe that the difference, while significant, is not "massive", and further non-biased analysis further reinforces that notion. Defense: (Note: I will rank catcher dead last in both seasons) Postion-by-position UZR/150 numbers for the 2009 Boston Red Sox: 1B: 8.3 2B: 9.1 SS: 3.1 3B:-10.7 LF:-9.4 CF:-19.6 RF: 9.1 Position-by-position starter's UZR/150 for 2010 (Career Averages): 1B (Youk): 6.5 2B (Pedroia): 7.4 SS (Scutaro): -2.9 3B (Beltre): 13.9 LF (Ellsbury): 21.8 (SSS) CF (Cameron): 5.7 RF (Drew): 7.4 Except for SS, where Scutaro is below average in his career, this is a completely superior defensive alignment to last year's, where there are no extremely weak links except for Catcher, and all other positions where the defense was absolutely inept in 2009 have been upgraded. Pitching: I'm going to focus on the starters, and quite simply bump the bullpen ERA to an even 4.00, from last year's 3.80 mark. The main problem with the Boston Red Sox' 2009 squad was inconsistency, and it reflected the in the starting corps, who posted a 4.63 ERA (19th in MLB ), and allowed 515 runs, (20th in MLB ). I'm not going to go very in-depth in this one, because quite simply: Lester,Beckett,Lackey,Matsuzaka,Wakefield>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Lester,Beckett,Wakefield,Penny,Smoltz,Tazawa,Byrd. The 2010 model should simply be better in every aspect than the 2009 version. Just take out Penny/Smoltz and their 171.2 innings of 6.25 ERA ball (119 earned runs allowed) as well as Byrd/Tazawa's 59.1 innings of 6.54 ERA (43 earned runs allowed) and add to that John Lackey's 176 innings of 3.83 ball, as well as a healthy Dice-K and a full year of Bucholz (who, at worst, should provide around league average innings) with Wakefield as injury/inefectiveness insurance. You can easily expect that horrible 4.63 ERA to go into a much more respectable range, quite possibly into the low 4's. So all in all it's easy to see that while some offensive regression is to be expected, the club has over all made very significant improvements to the roster, which, in my opinion, is a much stronger one than the 2009 version of the Red Sox, and that one won 95 games.

Since some interesting folks here at TalkSox (not directed at anyone in particular) have an interesting habit of bashing every move the Red Sox ever make, and are treating this off-season's moves as some sort of "regression" when it pertains to the team, it would be good to engage on an in-depth look on what the Sox have lost and gained heading into 2010 and try to come to a conclusion as to where the team stands heading into next season. 2009 Red Sox: Offense: 872 runs scored (3rd AL) .352 OBP (2nd AL) .454 SLG (2nd AL) Pitching: 736 runs allowed (3rd AL) 1230 SO (2nd AL) 4.63 starter's ERA (19th MLB ) 515 starter's runs allowed (20th MLB ) 3.80 reliever's ERA (8th MLB ) 221 reliever's runs allowed (5th MLB ) Defense: UZR by position: P: 29th (MLB ) C: CS 23 (29th MLB ) SB 151 (30th MLB ) 1B: 2nd (MLB ) 2B: 7th (MLB ) SS: 12th (MLB ) 3B: 29th (MLB ) RF: 8th (MLB ) CF: 30th (MLB ) LF: 25th (MLB ) The things that immediately jump out as negative about the 2009 ball-club are the starters and the defense at 3B, LF, CF and C, with the offense being the bright spot. Substractions: Jason Bay: 151 G .384/.537/.921 OPS, 36 HR, 29 2B, 119 RBI 134 OPS+, -13.0 UZR Rocco Baldelli: 62 G, 311/433/744 OPS, 7 HR, 4 2B, 23 RBI, 89 OPS+, -0.8 UZR Nick Green: 103 G .303/.366/ 669 OPS, 71 OPS+, 6 HR, 18 2B, 35 RBI, 8.3 UZR (At SS) Alex Gonzales: 44 G, .316/.453/.769 OPS,95 OPS+ 3 HR, 12 2B, 15 RBI, 4.3 UZR Mike Lowell (pending): 119 G, .337/.447/.811 OPS, 106 OPS+, 17 HR, 29 2B, -10.4 UZR Brad Penny: 131.2 IP, 5.61 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 4.68 xFIP John Smotlz: 40 IP,8.32 ERA, 1.7 WHIP,4.19 xFIP Billy Wagner: 13.2 IP, 1.98 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 3.03 xFIP Takashi Saito: 55.2 IP, 2.43 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 4.86 xFIP Additions: Victor Martinez (mid-season): 56 G, .405/.507/.912 OPS, 8HR, 12 2B, 41 RBI, 133 OPS+. Adrian Beltre: (Injured shoulder/testicle) Career averages: 152 G, .325/.453/.779 OPS, 24 HR, 34 2B,87 RBI, 105 OPS +, 13.9 UZR/150. Mike Cameron: 149 G, .342/.452/.795 OPS, 24 HR, 32 2B,70 RBI, 111 OPS+, 10.0 UZR Marco Scutaro: (Career 162 G Averages): .337/.384/.721 OPS, 92 OPS+, 10 HR, 29 2B, 57 RBI, -2.1 UZR/150. Bill Hall: (Career 162 G Averages): .309/.441/.750 OPS, 93 OPS+, 19 HR, 35 2B, 71 RBI, Average UZR/150 by position: 2B (-1.9), SS (1.6), 3B (5.7), LF (-2.3), (CF 6.3), RF (-0.1). Jeremy Hermida: 129 G .348/.392/.740 OPS, 94 OPS+, 13 HR, 14 2B, 47 RBI, -7.7 UZR. John Lackey: 176.1 IP, 3.83 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 3.92 xFIP. Continues......

He hyped him as the #2 starter, and as an ace,so in his mind, he was.