Dipre
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Everything posted by Dipre
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For the record, no need to jump on people who, all things equal, would rather Lee to Beckett, because he's clearly been the better pitcher for the last two years, i would personally be happy with either, but given age, contract demands, and familiarity with the team, Beckett is probably the way to go, my argument is that trying to state that Lee is the better pitcher, even if Beckett is the better fit for the team. Fire away. Excellent point by Crunchy about contract issues.
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You can't assure he'll add to his arsenal. You're stating assumption as fact. Which is an incorrect way to approach things. His secondary stuff consists of an excellent curveball and a not-very-good changeup, two-seamer is not secondary stuff. The fact that he's on the Sox doesn't necessarily mean he has to be overvalued.
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Yeah Beckett's not signing on a discount after his last contract. He's going to want to maximize his earnings.
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Beckett doesn't have the secondary stuff to transition easily into the "reinvention" period of his career, specially if that changeup doesn't come around this year. He lives and dies by velocity and i fail to see how someone can think otherwise.
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I can only wonder how one can logically think that command is more likely to erode than velocity.
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Bingo. They took a cheap gamble on a guy who had a good year. He sucks, cut him loose, he does well, you look like a genius. Low-risk (1.2 Mill for the Yanks, lol) ,High reward.
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I still think Lee's age should be a red flag though. If he's going to command around five years, i'd rather re-sign Beckett.
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I was checking xFIP, which is usually higher than FIP, and no, neither his FIP or xFIP were significantly better than league average, but were above league average nonetheless.
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I don't have the actual average on hand, but the team with the best cumulative reliever xFIP was Atlanta who's number was actually 3.90, they all rise from there, reaching a league-low 5.00 mark, so, by logic, the league average has to be above 3.90.
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Because it's a bit better than league average.
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I give up. Old dogs won't learn new tricks. And yes, Imperial, Lee has been on a whole other level in terms of both durability and performance the last two years, and that is a significant sample size.
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Dave Cameron from Fangraphs on Park:
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Read it again. Slowly. Then read your initial post. Slowly. You'll get it eventually.
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Hey Mr. Smug. Fielding-independent statistics are not necessarily an indication of succes. Javier Vasquez is the poster boy for it. Soooooooooooooo seeing as Lee has been both healthier and more effective, maaaaaaaaaaaybe that's the reason some people maaaaaaaaaaaaay like him more. Juuuuuuuust sayin'.
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Josh Beckett FIP: 3.63 Cliff Lee FIP: 3.11 In fairness, xFIP (Better IMO) grades Beckett better 3.35-3.69. That is likely to continue.
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It'll be an interesting press conference. "Carl, why did you decide to go for the Yankees offer?" "They were obviously more interested, they went at it harder, kept it contact, and showed me the respect i think i deserve" (Translation: Ka-ChinG! $$$$$$)
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It's enough to put a smile on anyone's face. Too bad he'll be a Yankee.
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But there's also the fact that Lee is healthier, would neutralize lefties even further at Fenway, and is not FB-dependent, which bodes better for the future. My only gripe with Lee is age.
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1) Repeating something over and over again does not make it true. More HR's were hit by RHH at Fenway park in 2009 than Citizens Bank or Arlington in either '08 or '09. The fact that the wall is high has no bearing on the actual result, and that result is RHH hitting tons of Homeruns at Fenway Park. I don't really know how else to explain this. :dunno: 2) You don't know what my point about Lester is yet. 3) Your thought process in this matter is not only incorrect, but inconsistent. I suggest you stop the Park Factors argument since you're contradicting several points you've made on other arguments by exposing the flaws within the system.
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Fenway is not a terrible park to hit homers in. Only for lefties. Repeating it over and over won't make it true. See, the thing is, you used the point that park factors fluctuate year to year because of a number of issues in another argument, but now that it suits your idea, the point is moot. You can't have it both ways, it either is or isn't. Citizens Bank is notorious for inflating power numbers for both lefties and righties. This is fact in the real world. Also, i use HR's to track park factors because it's least likely to fluctuate year-in/year-out due to park dimensions. It's simple logic.
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He's being compared to Carl Crawford. The exact opposite of a power hitter.
