The best indicator of future performance is past performance. A three year downward curve in performance is significant enough to assume the curve will continue trending downward.
A three year sample is statistically significant. Let's not try to minimize the issue. You don't want to pay for sub-3 ERA, 12 K/9 Burnes, and get 3.5 ERA, 9.00 K/9 ERA Burnes that's declining on a yearly basis.
Haven't seen me even reference Burnes, as I think his last year is indicative of issues with his performance. His ERA has increased yearly since his breakout, while his K rate has also steadily decreased.
If you're going to pay a guy elite-player money, he better have elite skills. Snell's year was good, not great, as referenced by his 4.1 WAR even though he lead starters in ERA over 180 IP.
This isn't just a money issue. Other teams with similar or lower payrolls are making the playoffs, while teams with much higher payrolls didn't even sniff the playoffs last year. It's an org issue.
The Dodgers are trying to trade for Tyler Glasnow from the Rays. Dude makes good on the first part of his last name, but when healthy, he's dynamite. He should be a Red Sox target.
Sure, but the negative opinions on the Red Sox had never reached this level. They are getting burned by media and fans everywhere. They have a market research team. 2023 damaged this brand. If he doesn't spend to fix it, he's a f***ing idiot.