Jayhawk Bill

Yes. Ego? http://barrybonds.mlb.com/players/bonds_barry/journal/archives_04.html That article was over a year old. Bonds didn't receive an indictment regarding tax evasion.

Your first post was really much funnier. Don Orsillo: "And the pitch...it's a routine grounder to shortstop, and Cabrera has it...no! He drops it! He picks it up and throws...it's in the seats! His throw his in the seats!" Jerry Remy: "Well, yes, it's a run-scoring throwing error, but I just think that Miggy's been getting to more balls recently." Don Orsillo: "Well, Jerry, you could say that...he only had 12 throwing errors in April, but he's already up to 15 in May with almost a week left in the month. I think that he's regaining some of that range that he had when he was coming up through the minor leagues with the Marlins before he was old enough to vote. Tina, you were talking with Miggy before the game. What did he have to say about the challenges of playing shortstop again?" Tina Cervasio: "Don, I asked Miguel Cabrera that before the game today, and here's what he had to say:" Miguel Cabrera: "Ummm...this is...umm...harder than I thought that I'd be...I mean..."

evidence was always there, they were probably just waiting to see what else they could prove. How is evidence of use evidence that Bonds knew that he was using steroids? :dunno: If he denies knowledge, he's created reasonable doubt, unless they got him to sign a statement saying "I acknowledge that I am choosing to use steroids, a drug disallowed by Major League Baseball," or similar evidence. He could've been confused regarding his medical care; he could've forgotten. That's not how you see it--but the defense can challenge jurors they see as potentially hostile to Bonds. OJ got off a murder rap--this is just perjury, and the trial venue is right where Barry Bonds set his record. *** BTW, remember the Mo Vaughn trial?

Mike Lowell at first base? Who's better at third, Mikey or A-Rod? Let's check BP FRAA for the years that both of them have played third base, to discount Lowell's excellence in his youth while A-Rod was at shortstop. A-Rod 2004 2 2005 -4 2006 -18 2007 2 Mikey 2004 12 2005 16 2006 20 2007 14 A-Rod is at -18, or -4.5 per year. Mikey is at 62, or +15.5 per year. Playing A-Rod instead of Mikey at third base costs the Yankees roughly two wins a year, assuming equivalent performance from the two elsewhere.

OK, I went through the actual indictment, found here: http://www.thesmokinggun.com/archive/years/2007/1115072bonds1.html Here are the distilled reasons for the perjury charges: 1) Bonds said that he was unaware of taking steroids or HGH. The prosecution intends to charge he had both knowledge and memory of doing so. 2) Bonds says that he remembered first use of "flaxseed oil" in 2003. The prosecution intends to charge he had both knowledge and memory of use in 2000-2001. 3) Bonds says that he never got any drug from Greg Anderson involving a syringe. The prosecution intends to charge he had both knowledge and memory of doing so. *** For those who are old enough, think back to the Oliver North hearings, where Lieutenant Colonel North repeatedly listened to his questions, consulted quietly with his lawyer for 30-90 seconds, and then said "I don't remember." No perjury conviction--it's well-nigh impossible to prove memory, regardless of how silly it might seem that somebody could forget. Gaining perjury from fabrications is more likely, but still challenging. This case should not be pursued if they have nothing more than what is given in the indictment. It's a witch hunt--it's a huge expenditure of Federal resources that's likely to culminate in Bonds's innocence. It's possible to get a perjury conviction: Republican Scooter Libby was convicted on evidence similar to what will be brought against Bonds by what was likely an all-Democrat DC jury. If they can find a San Francisco jury (probably all Giants fans) that will convict Barry Bonds of perjury over this, I'll be very surprised.

Actually, Lowell's high BABIP is very relevant, strongly suggesting a regression to his age-adjusted career norms next year. Take that away...take away, possibly, his Fenway Park home field advantage...Lowell isn't going to look as good next year. In the wrong ballpark, he could become an epic tale of collapse.

As another thought... Baseball Reference most-similar pitchers to both Haren and Santana through their current ages. The number in parentheses is the similarity score: 1000 is perfect. Dan Haren, through age 26: Oil Can Boyd (982) Brad Penny (979) Jim Lonborg (977) Joel Pineiro (968) Ben McDonald (967) Vicente Padilla (964) Don Robinson (963) Kevin Millwood (963) John Lackey (963) Rick Reuschel (963) Not a bad group. Four out of ten declined badly (Boyd, Pineiro, McDonald and Padilla). Three of the ten (Penny, Lackey and Reuschel) were considered to have gotten better. Lonborg, reputed to have declined, actually played rather well for another decade, although he never regained his 1967 form. Johan Santana, through age 28: Tim Hudson (949) Roy Oswalt (940) John Candelaria (935) Juan Pizarro (931) Bob Welch (929) Mike Mussina (928) Kevin Appier (927) Jack McDowell (921) Kevin Millwood (915) Sid Fernandez (915) McDowell and Fernandez blew out their arms in the next few seasons; Hudson and Oswalt are still young. The interesting four are Candelaria, Pizarro, Welch and Mussina. They all had another solid decade ahead of them. Santana's comparable pitchers are objectively a better lot. I'm surprised, though, that there are no HOF pitchers and only one late-career contender (Mussina) on both lists combined.

George Steinbrenner, even in his dotage, had a gravitas similar to but greater than Lucchino's. He was the power, not the capable Brian Cashman, and he put together a dynasty-level team a decade ago using exceptional young talent, the best free agents to supplement his core players, and the leadership of Jeter on the field and Torre on the bench. Next to George Steinbrenner, his sons are whiny little brats; next to Torre, Girardi is a loudmouthed punk who insulted his last front office publicly; next to Jeter, A-Rod is a gelding. I can't fault the rumored contract. I fault the analysis that, if all put together, this makes the Yankees better. On the field, it's a status quo: their young pitchers may get better, but their high-priced free agents will almost certainly fade. Off the field, it's a huge risk, and in particular I see the simultaneous emergence of Girardi and eclipsing of Jeter as potentially boding ill.

IMHO, the platoon combo of Chris Carter and Kevin Millar (or, if you prefer, the platoon combo of Carter and Lowrie with Youkilis bouncing between first and third) offers more value this year than Lowrie at third base full-time. Great! :thumbsup: Of course, he and Lowrie are both 2B/SS types. Moving Lowrie to third base puts him out of position and leaves him occupying a corner infield slot where more offense is expected. I'll respectfully disagree about choosing Lowrie, although I'd certainly consider it a viable option. ***************************************************************** I think that an MVP season from Lowell is simply not going to happen. I think that an MVP season from A-Rod is very unlikely...call it a one in one hundred shot.

A crude estimate would adjust VORP (a run-based stat) by the ERA difference I postulated for the OPS difference. A quarter-run per nine innings over 240 innings would be 6.7 runs. Sabathia had a VORP 6.6 runs higher than Beckett. Adjusting his VORP downwards by 6.7 runs makes it a slightly closer race.

He's not! You've got the discussion, and my input has Lowell first, A-Rod second, and Youks third. In that third contingency, Chris Carter replaces Youkilis at first 60% of the time, and Kevin Millar gets the 40% playing time leftover all the way across the diamond. Millar is nowhere near at all.

OK...Florida offers Miggy Cabrera for Coco, Masterson, Bowden, Anderson and Tejada. Do you pull the trigger? :dunno: A-Rod is the best option, given that Lowell has chosen to test the market and is unlikely to return at a reasonable price. All Boston loses is a draft pick; while further MVP years are unlikely, perennial All Star play at third base is probable, and the salary isn't entirely out of reach. IMO...YMMV.

Kevin Millar played 873 innings at first base this year, making one error in 918 total chances for a .999 fielding percentage. While speed is tougher to measure, he did both steal a base and hit a triple this year. We're not talking 562 plate apearances, even though Baltimore gave him that many this year: we're talking the small half of a platoon, maybe 200-300 plate appearances...and I stated that, "it's an off-the-wall idea, but I see it as a viable insurance policy." And besides, what about the clubhouse karma aspect? You'd have to be some sort of stats guy not to see that, at least a little bit.

Corrupt. Look at Lisa Nowak as the clearest example: privileged little girl goes to Naval Academy, graduates and gets flight training, goes neither to sea nor to a forward-deployed unit but rather to a squadron in Southern California reserved for men and women returning from arduous tours, misses qualification for Test Pilot School (requisite for NASA) but gets the same Master's Degree from Naval Postgraduate School, miraculously gets assigned after graduation to the base of Test Pilot School instead of going to sea or overseas, miraculously gets accepted to Test Pilot School to earn the Master's Degree she's already earned a second time at taxpayer expense, miraculously gets a follow-on tour to the same base instead of going to sea or overseas, and ultra-miraculously gets a fourth consecutive tour at the same base instead of going to sea or overseas, working in a DAWIA job that she's not legal to hold (that's Federal law, folks, not some Navy rule like "Everybody goes to sea"). All this qualifies her to go to NASA, fly exactly one mission during a decade in which she personally receives over one million dollars and receives training worth several millions more, carry on an adulterous affair itself punishable by court martial, and then attempt to drive from Texas to Florida wearing adult Pampers to commit felonious assault and attempted kidnapping. Significantly, despite the fact that the Uniform Code of Military Justice would permit either an extraordinarily prompt military trial or even swifter non-judicial punishment that could end her career, over half a year later she remains on the Federal payroll. She intends to plead that she was insane, but that NASA never noticed. Given all of this, it is not surprising that NASA astronauts choose to drink before going into space with their co-pilots. [/tangent] Roughly 120% of Beckett's total IP...but given the strength of opposition, I think that things become a whole lot closer. Sabathia pitched for an ALDS team, had the weakest opposition hitting of any qualifying AL starter, and he still didn't win as many games as Beckett. At some point the non-parametric stat of enabling his team to win has to be considered, too. Sabathia is certainly defensible--I just think that Beckett is, too. :dunno:

I'd take Blalock AND Laird for Crisp, and I'd throw in a mediocre MiLB pitcher who's MLB-ready...maybe David Pauley.

I'll say. If you rank the 44 AL pitchers with 150+ IP by the overall OPS of the batters whom they faced, Roy Halladay and Curt Schilling tie for first with .775 (OK, Halladay by a smidge). The AL East can be tough. Josh Beckett got the luck of the draw among Red Sox pitchers, though: Wakefield was eighth and Matsuzaka was thirteenth, but Beckett was only 27th out of 44 pitchers, facing batters with an OPS of .757. CC Sabathia was 44th of 44 pitchers ranked. His opposing batters had a combined OPS of .738. Fausto Carmona was 42nd of 44 pitchers, facing batters with an OPS of .747. Both of the Cleveland aces faced unusually easy lineups over the course of the season. FWIW, Lackey was 30th, not far behind Beckett. A difference of 19 OPS points between Sabathia's and Beckett's opposing batters might've subtracted a quarter-run odd* from Sabathia's ERA. If Sabathia's ERA were closer to Scott Kazmir's, not below Josh Beckett's, and if his record were 18-8, not 19-7, would it have made a difference? :dunno: If one takes quality of opposing batters into consideration, Sabathia and Beckett look very close, Carmona falls out of competition, and Roy Halladay becomes a dark-horse contender. IMO...YMMV. * based upon regression analysis of 2007 AL team OPS and runs scored.

My first choice is Mike Lowell at 3/36 to 3/45, exactly what Theo offered. My second choice is A-Rod, understanding that he'll be a .300/.400/.500 hitter, not the 2007 MVP, but that he'll approach a .900 OPS for many years to come. In today's market, 8/240 seems to be a fair opening bid. My insurance policy is a bit off the wall, but it's cheap: I'd try to trade for Kevin Millar and use him as the lesser half of a platoon with Chris Carter at first base, moving Youkilis to third. Baltimore needs a center fielder, but Millar has far too little trade value to warrant offering Coco Crisp: I'd offer Bubba Bell (.370/.455/.665 at A+, .265/.337/.408 at AA) as a CF/RF prospect. He might pan out, he might not, but he'll be hitting his prime in three years, Baltimore won't contend for a year or two anyway, he's a potential solution for their biggest problem this off season, and he'd cost Baltimore $2.35 million less than Millar. For Boston, Kevin Millar would fill any clubhouse vacuum left by Mike Lowell (he might fill it with Kentucky Fried Chicken, but he'd fill it), and he'd ffer a capable partner for Chris Carter while Carter got acclimated to MLB. Used in a platoon role, Carter could hit .300 or better right away, but he'll need time to get used to MLB LHP. One year from Millar could be invaluable--and that would give Manny both Tavarez and Millar to keep him happy during his final pre-option year. And if something better panned out, Millar could be the DH (Designated Hinske) or he could be hired as an MiLB coach or such to complete his contract obligation, just as the Dodgers did for Mueller. He could even be released: $2.75 million isn't too much to throw away if things go bad, while $45 million or $240 million most certainly is. Again, it's an off-the-wall idea, but I see it as a viable insurance policy.

Thanks for the clarification. PM me if you want details on the reported post and follow-up PM: it's probably a moot point. I've got your guidance, and I'll do my utmost to work within your standards--thank you.