Jayhawk Bill

Why would I undertake research for a guy who just called me a junkie? I expect, as you state, that Florida wouldn't let him go for Ellsbury. But two arb years of Miggy is less valuable than three pre-arb years and three more arb years of Ellsbury.

Too steep. I wouldn't do Ellsbury for Cabrera straight up, given Miggy's weight and the horrific nature of his defense. Crisp and Lester? Crisp, Lester and Hansen? Yes--but "cost-controlled" for the Marlins has a different meaning than cost-controlled for any other team in MLB, and the salaries would probably be too steep.

You're undervaluing Red Sox talent (not that I'm surprised ). Crisp and Masterson are too much. First, I've already made my case: Crisp ~ Salty. Very good center fielders are very rare commodities--look, Coco cost Boston (indirectly) Edgar Renteria, Kelly Shoppach and cash. The rest of those trades were fungible talent, and Andy Marte was just a means of converting Renteria's value into a form desired by Cleveland. Coco cost Boston a lot. He's coming off a good year--he's worth a lot. The question, then, is whether Masterson is pocket change or a significant trading chip. I submit that he's significant, for these reasons: 1) His High-A stats were posted in one of the worst pitchers' ballparks in MiLB. Here are the Park Factors: Lancaster JetHawks H 1.16 2B 1.06 HR 1.84 W 1.08 K 1.01 To pull off a decent season pitching there is amazing. Masterson did it, and he did it with lousy defense. Masterson is a sinkerball pitcher on the caliber of Brandon Webb: he allowed only four home runs in almost a hundred IP with Lancaster by avoiding fly balls and line drives. Still, his defense allowed a .317 BABIP when he pitched, increasing hits by maybe 10% over what might be expected for an extreme ground ball pitcher. 2) His AA stats are inflated because he hit a wall at roughly 130 IP. Masterson's July OPS allowed at AA was .406; his August OPS allowed was .871. Kids run out of steam, and Masterson projects more as a relief pitcher than a starter: the August stats need to come with an asterisk...even though July and August combined were a 4.34 ERA with a 3.28 K/BB ratio, nothing shabby for a 22-year-old in AA. Notably, 66% of the balls in play against Masterson at AA were ground balls, and a mere 12% were line drives. Entering 2007 BP PECOTA projected Masterson to be more valuable than Buchholz. I'm not sure of that--but I'm very sure that Masterson is a valuable prospect, more valuable than loose change in a transaction. Crisp for Salty? Yeah. A mid-level prospect, too? Maybe. Masterson? No way. Thanks to SoxProspects.com and Minor League Splits for reference material on Masterson: http://www.soxprospects.com/players/masterson-justin.htm http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/plSearch.cgi

Maybe. Dunno, though. Entering 2007, before Coco's great season in CF and Salty's OK-but-not-stellar rookie season, BP had them pegged as almost equal in five-year value in projected WARP and in potential upside. Look, Salty hit .266/.310/.422 this year and he'll never be a great defensive catcher. Coco hit .268/.330/.382 and he is a great defensive center fielder. Salty is still just a sophomore--Coco is a veteran, a guy who's been even better than he was in 2007. I'd ask for Salty, not Laird, were I dealing with Texas. YMMV.

Yeah, I know...my point was that it's not as unrealistic as most sarcasm. Neither 3,000 hits nor the HOF is out of reach for a player of Ellsbury's talent. Five hundred HR...well, not unless the next generation PEDs are better than the steroids of the '90's. ***************************************************************** That's 2:1 in favor of Texas, at least by WARP1. Laird's batting in 2007 is reflective of his talent; his batting in 2006 was not. He's a good catcher, but he's a mediocre batter. Saltalamacchia is on the block, too. http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/baseball/rangers/stories/100407dnsporanggmadv.2a2e9cd.html Offer Crisp for Saltalamacchia. Salty is far less polished as a catcher, but he can handle Schilling on a regular basis and other pitchers occasionally to give Tek a break. Tek can catch Wakefield: he doesn't like to, but he can. Kevin Cash can hang out in AAA in case we need him to cover an injury to Tek; Salty could catch 80% of the games, it's just that he can't call games like Tek and he can't catch a knuckleball. What Salty can do is hit: he's projected as a 1B/C, an indictment of his defense but a compliment to his skill as a batter. Coco Crisp is a rare cost-controlled championship-caliber veteran CF. He's worth a lot: I'd ask for a high-upside young catcher with questions, not a known mediocre player.

Ellsbury - Lock for All Star Team, 1500+ hits, and 100 homers. But, hey, here's a question: who's a better candidate for the HOF, Miggy Cabrera or Jacoby Ellsbury? In my eyes it's Ellsbury, by far: Miggy Cabrera is going to grow his waistline out of MLB by roughly his 30th birthday, and Ellsbury is going to be around MLB for at least 15 more years. If you don't play well through your 30's, your HOF chances are very slim...I don't think that Miggy Cabrera will make it to the HOF without a side trip to gastric bypass on his journey there. ***************************************************************** A-Rod? Bonds? I'd take either one at fair value, but if Lowell agrees to anything in the 3/45 range or less I see neither happening. Here's one for everybody: Barry Bonds wants a World Series ring, and his time is growing short to get one. Were you Theo, would you offer him a nominal $5 million contract to be a fifth outfielder? By going with 12 pitchers you'd get four bench players. Would a bench of Crisp/Ellsbury/Kielty (choose one), Cash/Mirabelli/Kottaras (choose one), Alex Cora and Barry Bonds be good enough? I've posted before against Bonds, and I recognize the realities. Three points in his favor: 1) Barry Bonds can replace either Manny or Papi offensively in case of injury. No other available veteran can do that...not even A-Rod, IMO, although a case could be made otherwise. 2) Barry Bonds can pinch hit effectively--he'd be a lethal weapon on the bench. 3) Few cities and teams are bigger than Barry Bonds. Boston and the Red Sox are...unquestionably, they (we) are. From Bonds' perspective, coming to Boston and becoming a team player (or reasonable facsimile thereof) for one year could erase a whole lot of the stigma that's clouded his career. There's potential merit on each side. *** Frankly, I see Bonds going to the A's, Padres or New York, not the Red Sox. Still, I wanted to raise the question with a different spin.

The post to which I was responding cited both the question you reiterate and your belief that his injuries are irrelevant. I was addressing both points.

I think that you nailed it--this is a hometown discount aimed at the BBWAA six years from now. And, maybe, Red Sox Nation--Schilling has seemed to enjoy his time with Boston.

Well, first they'd have to read the article for which a link was provided. Then they'd realize that, unlike projection systems such as PECOTA, it's a stat, not a theory. It's as "accurate" as OBP or HR or RBI...it just measures something different. Sep 25, 2007: Missed 24 games (oblique injury). Aug 29, 2007: Oblique injury, day-to-day. Jun 10, 2007: Missed 1 game (wrist injury). Jun 9, 2007: Wrist injury, day-to-day. Sep 30, 2006: Missed 4 games (patella tendinitis). Sep 24, 2006: Patella tendinitis, day-to-day. Sep 23, 2006: Missed 23 games (right knee injury). Sep 10, 2006: Right knee injury, day-to-day. Sep 4, 2006: Missed 8 games (right knee injury). Aug 29, 2006: Right knee injury, day-to-day. Aug 26, 2006: Missed 1 game (knee injury). Aug 25, 2006: Knee injury, day-to-day. Jun 18, 2006: Missed 1 game (knee injury). Jun 17, 2006: Knee injury, day-to-day. May 29, 2006: Missed 2 games (illness). May 27, 2006: Illness, day-to-day. That's Manny's two-year injury log from Sportsnet.ca. http://www2.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/players/Manny_Ramirez/ My lack of faith in Manny's future health is significant, particularly regarding the health of his knees.

Or even 86 years...who knows? :dunno: Almost everything...one could discuss the value of arb years and, especially, pre-arb years in more depth...and on jacksonianmarch's side, one could point out that signing Type "A" free agents can cost us draft picks. Still, I can't quibble with example1's conclusions here, either.

Nope. It's not a bad rotation, either, IMO. Issues: 1) Wang's home-road split makes him much less useful away from the Bronx. 2) Mussina looked pretty shaky late in 2007. 3) Hughes should be great, but he had injury issues in 2007...just as he's had before. 4) Joba Chamberlain isn't proven at all as an MLB starter. 5) Kennedy barely has MLB velocity. Check the PITCHf/x data from his starts: he was being given several more inches on the outside corner than the opposing teams' starters were getting. Given fair umpiring, he'll be eaten alive. With so many question marks, Pettitte was important. The top side for this remaining rotation is filthy good, butthe questions are serious and legitimate.

"Ludicrous" as in the sense of "It's so terrible that I can't help but laugh 'til I cry?" OK, from Gassko's article: "Here" is this link: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/what-is-zone-rating/ Which goes through how to use the RZR and OOZ stats at THT to determine similar figures, if you're interested. It's not a subjective figure--Manny really is somewhere "around" that bad. FRAA had him at just -17, but FRAA is considered less precise than RZR-derived stats in some circles...:dunno: Projecting a player to be better at age 37 at any key performance metric than he was for three out of four years between ages 32 and 35 is a bold projection. Your faith in Manny is duly noted; let's see what 2008 brings to see if either of us changes our minds.

I think that the Yankees have the resources to sign Miggy Cabrera either way--the trade is, essentially, for his pre-free agency years.

Out of curiosity, LUGOforMVP, can you think of an instance where a team's new manager has ever taken the moment of one of his first media opportunities to explain his bad relationship with a superstar from his last team, from which he'd been fired?

Why? Setting aside that New York would get a Cabrera while Florida would get a Cabrera AND a Hughes I'm not so sure that it's lopsided. We're talking two years of Miggy Cabrera vs. four years of Melky Cabrera plus six years of Phil Hughes. Let's make a first assumption that their 2007 WARP1 reflect their true value and check value over the duration of the trade: Miggy: 9.7 x 2 = 19.4 Melky: 4.6 x 4 = 18.4 Phil: 1.8 x 6 = 10.8 18.4 + 10.8 = 29.2; 29.2 > 19.4; Marlins win. But Hughes pitched only 72.3 IP in MLB this year. He pitched 146 IP in MiLB last year, and he pitched 37.2 IP in MiLB this year. If we conservatively assume that Hughes will average double his 2007 MLB IP, and we further assume that he won't get any better from age 21 to age 27 we get this: Miggy: 9.7 x 2 = 19.4 Melky: 4.6 x 4 = 18.4 Phil: 3.6 x 6 = 21.6 18.4 + 21.6 = 40.0; 40.0 > 19.4; Marlins win by almost a 2:1 margin. Two other factors: 1) Only Melky Cabrera and, especially, Phil Hughes have pre-arb years left. Pre-arb years are golden for small-market teams. 2) The key to all three of these players is their future upside. Let's look at the top five 2007 PECOTA comparables for each one: Miggy: Jim Ray Hart Jack Clark Ellis Valentine Cal Ripken Del Ennis Good players; one HOFer, Ripken Phil: Bobby Bradley Jake Peavy Brad Penny Edwin Jackson Bob Miller Bobby Bradley was ruined by injuries. Jake Peavy is a Cy Young-caliber pitcher, and Brad Penny is close. Edwin Jackson and Bob Miller had losing records but they ate a lot of innings--you have to be pretty good to get a chance to go 1-12 or 5-15. Melky: Rick Manning Carlos Beltran Roberto Alomar Richie Ashburn Pete Rose Two HOFers, two HOF contenders and Rick Manning are better comparables than Miggy's--and Miggy is rapidly getting so big that his future as an MLB star has to be questioned. Add in that Miggy is an NL player and that Melky and Phil are AL East players, and the balance tips even further in the Marlins' favor were this trade made.

For which one year? For 2006, to a team that can use him at DH and reaches the postseason? I don't know about "bargain," but Manny was a very valuable hitter last year for the games that he played, and his durability might've been better as a DH. In the postseason, Manny's coolness under pressure seems to escalate his performance: he was great from the 2003 ALCS through the 2007 ALCS, he was good in the World Series, and if one extends his 43-game Boston postseason batting line to 162 games, it would be a .321, 41 HR, 143 RBI batting line. The regular season features "Manny being Manny;" the postseason has featured "Manny being great." Had Manny cost Boston no runs in left field, and had Manny helped Boston to an ALDS win or more, he would've been worth his salary last year. For this year? Sorry, but regardless of his postseason work, Manny probably wasn't worth $20 million this year. BP considers him to have been three runs above average; Gassko considers him to have been 24 runs below average. Still, 2007 was part of a package deal, and Manny from 2001-2008 may have been worth his very high salary: Manny was an important part of two World Championships. Contract out years are usually overpriced, so it's not a slam at the Duquette front office, but Manny wasn't worth his salary in 2007. For 2009? Manny has become a slow-moving slugger with age, and slow-moving sluggers decline swiftly. His injuries in 2006 and 2007 augur badly for his future. As I pointed out above, there's a very real chance that Manny will be out of baseball entirely by 2009. That said, if Manny's knees are fine in 2008 and he has a surprising contract year, I'd possibly reconsider, but Manny's work in 2006-2007 points to his being among those great hitters unable to continue in the field in their late 30's, and I'm hoping that the Boston DH spot will be filled by Big Papi until 2010, at least. I think that Manny will be worth far less than $20 million in 2009, and I don't think that he'll have a role in Boston.

BP PECOTA uses the past three seasons, not the entire past career, to determine comparables. Manny's 20 PECOTA comparables entering 2007 were some fearsome batters, including Ted Williams, Hank Aaron and Willie Mays. The trouble is that almost all of those comparable hitters had much better age 35 seasons. Using WARP3 as the metric, 14 were a full win or more better than Manny at age 35 and two (Reggie Jackson and Kevin Mitchell) were more than a win worse. Only four had seasons within a win of Manny's value at age 35: Roy Sievers Sammy Sosa Mickey Mantle Willie Stargell. How did those four-most-comparable comparable players do at age 37, Manny's age in 2009? Stargell: .274, 13 HR, 35 RBI Sievers: .172, 4 HR, 11 RBI Sosa: Out of baseball Mantle: Out of baseball This may be the start of a serious decline for Manny. Yes, the fielding is really bad. FRAA is actually kinder than Zone Rating-based metrics regarding Manny's fielding. Regarding his batting, 42% of the BRAA you cite came from 2002 and 2003, and just 58% for the last four years combined. Even averaging his excellent 2004-2006 seasons in with his 2007, the average BRAA for each of the four seasons is only a bit better than two-thirds as good as his 2002-2003 level. The fielding each year is at least three times worse than his 2002-2003 level, using FRAA as the metric. He's going downhill. Agreed. But posting tonight, I'm not optimistic that Manny will be a superstar hitter, or an adequate left fielder, in 2009.

KTF1229, you did tell me about this site, and you did so before you knew that I was already a member. Soxfan#1 was first, but I thank you for the good advice, just as I thanked him.

Some small-sample 2007 LF RZR stats: Kevin Millar: 1.000 Eric Hinske: .786 (with Boston!) Johnny Gomes .740 All of them were better than Manny Ramirez in left field. You chose the names... I think that fielding metrics are roughly as good as batting metrics. There are two types of fielding metrics: those that count actual performance and contributions in games (Range Factor and the much-maligned FRAA) and those attempting to measure fielding rates (ZR-based stats and similar metrics). If you think about it, there's no public-sector batting metric that even tries to parallel ZR: a detailed breakdown of each hitter's batting lines for pitches in 30-odd distinct and different locations over and around the plate would be a close parallel. We don't get SLG for balls in zone and balls out of zone; we get BA/OBP/SLG. I've noticed that Kevin Cash gets better pitches than Manny Ramirez; that's not considered in their stats. I've noticed that players have differing luck regarding their balls in play, just as fielders have differing luck regarding balls hit into their zones, but that's accepted without second thoughts. Returning to topic, almost every fielding metric worth checking suggests that Manny is really bad--not kinda bad, but really bad. That's got to matter.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/mgl_uzr_2007_notable_fielders/ Bold added. UZR is a ZR-based stat--the Fenway Park Factor should hold true. Let's use 0.82 and proceed from there. At best, you could divide Manny's RZR by (1.82/2), or 0.91, to get a best-case approximation of his ability. That would be an RZR of .752 in 2007, still a whopping 51 RZR points below Pat Burrell's anemic .803. My perception is that the Green Monster has little adverse effect on Manny: he knows how to adjust his position to allow himself not to be constrained in his range by the wall, while visiting outfielders are less savvy and suffer more.

I think that David Ortiz would do whatever Theo and Tito asked him to do. Foremost, Papi is a good guy; secondarily, they (and Grady Little) gave him his great chance. I don't think that Papi's desire for any award has anything to do with it: he'll do his best. That said, players of Papi's phenotype are usually declining by his age. David Ortiz played hurt for most of 2007; perhaps most significantly, the most likely cure for his reported 2006 cardiac condition would have been an adrenalin blocker, and the 2007 Big Papi wasn't a notable clutch hitter...he was neither bad nor good in that respect, but not the 2004 Big Papi. I'd keep David Ortiz at DH and Manny in LF for 2008, perhaps with Papi playing a few games at first and Manny DHing occasionally on the road.