Jayhawk Bill

That's a minority view but a good point, IMO. A question, though: don't you think that the Angels can contend for a year or two or three with the outfield and team that they're assembling?

Solid move by the Angels. Right now they're looking to be right up there with the Yankees and the Red Sox in 2008. I'm looking at Vlad Guerrero becoming pretty much a full-time DH. He's hit slightly better as a DH than as a RF over his career, so there's no issue regarding an inability to perform as a DH. Getting him out of right field diminishes injury risk, and his bat is crucial to the Angels' chances.

You know, I suspect that Terry Francona will see it your way. *** But if you don't like my idea that AAA is the best representation, let's look at Ellsbury from AA through MLB in aggregate. First, just by at bats and hits: Year Level AB LHP H LHP 2006 AA 54 21 2007 AA 27 10 2007 AAA 113 30 2007 MLB 26 9 220 70 .318 Year Level AB RHP H RHP 2006 AA 144 40 2007 AA 49 26 2007 AAA 246 77 2007 MLB 90 32 529 175 .331 That suggests a 13-point split...not so much. But now let's look at walks vs. plate appearances. I've used at bats plus walks as a proxy for plate appearances...it's not exact, but it's pretty close, and it shouldn't effect the split we're discussing: Year Level PA LHP BB LHP 2006 AA 58 4 2007 AA 28 1 2007 AAA 118 5 2007 MLB 28 2 232 12 .052 Year Level PA RHP BB RHP 2006 AA 164 20 2007 AA 54 5 2007 AAA 272 26 2007 MLB 96 6 586 57 .097 There's the big dfference: Ellsbury has a 45-point split regarding his ability to draw walks from right-handed vs. left-handed pitchers. Combined with his batting difference, it's about a 58-point split. The difference between that and his 80-point split I'm projecting is roughly the effect of his astounding, bizarre BABIP vs. LHP at AA in 2006. *** But your point regarding Francona is certainly well-made. Francona favors speed to lead off, and I'd expect to see Ellsbury leading off most of 2008. Even if I'd use a different lineup vs. LHP and RHP.

The issue with putting Jacoby Ellsbury as leadoff hitter is his platoon split. Overall, he'll probably have an OBP in the range of Dustin Pedroia's. The trouble is that he's had a pretty significant platon split on the way up, and that Boston might be better served by batting him higher against RHP than against LHP. Let's look at his OBP platoon splits by level and year, courtesy Minor League Splits and Baseball Reference: Level vs LHP/vs RHP 2006 AA: .431/.371 2007 AA: .452/.589 2007 AAA: .303/.384 2007 MLB: .379/.398 The only exception to the rule is 2006 AA, where Ellsbury had a higher OBP vs LHP. If one looks deeper, it's entirely driven by his BABIP: he had a .447 BABIP vs LHP despite having only a 6.4% line drive percentage. Yes, part of that is his speed, but two other significant arts are that AA defense is worse than MLB defense and, frankly, luck. I've never seen an MLB hitter with a BABIP over .400 and an LD% under 10%. If it's ever been done, it was a pretty unusual circumstance. In AAA Ellsbury learned to hit LHP harder, increasing his LD% significantly. I'm speculating that the platoon split that we see for his AAA time, roughly 80 points, may be the best indicator of his success in MLB. If that's right--and if Bill James's forecast that he'll be a .320/.374/.436 hitter is right--the his OBP will approach .400 vs. RHP and it'll approach .320 vs. LHP. If Ellsbury's OBP is around .400, he should lead off. If it's around .320, he shouldn't, and Pedroia should be up in the first two spots beside Youkilis. I'd bat Ellsbury-Youkilis 1-2 vs. RHP and Youkilis-Pedroia 1-2 vs. LHP. Of course, as always, YMMV.

Too kind of you to bring that up...but thanks. I was asserted to have said, Manny Ramirez, 2007: 20 HR, 88 RBI David Ortiz, 2007: 35 HR, 117 RBI My position was that you can't count on 35-plus home runs and 100-plus RBI, and that their numbers would start to slide. Papi barely made it; Manny didn't make it. Papi dropped by 19 HR and 20 RBI; Manny dropped by 15 HR and 14 RBI. That's what I'd call numbers starting to slide. If the best that you can do to try to ridicule me is to point out a pre-season post where the poster and all the responders ridiculed me, and where I was clearly vindicated by the actual results of the season, your head is farther up your ass than I'd previously imagined.

I'd use different lineups vs. right-handed and left-handed starting pitchers. Here's what I'd recommend, including the 2008 stats projected by Bill James and found online at http://www.fangraphs.com: Against RHP: Name BA OBP SLG OPS Ellsbury0.320 0.374 0.436 0.810 Youk 0.290 0.399 0.454 0.853 Papi 0.298 0.407 0.587 0.994 Manny 0.301 0.405 0.552 0.957 Drew 0.278 0.393 0.465 0.858 Lowell 0.282 0.349 0.459 0.808 Pedroia 0.300 0.369 0.436 0.805 Tek 0.253 0.349 0.418 0.767 Lugo 0.266 0.331 0.380 0.711 Against LHP: Youk 0.290 0.399 0.454 0.853 Pedroia 0.300 0.369 0.436 0.805 Papi 0.298 0.407 0.587 0.994 Manny 0.301 0.405 0.552 0.957 Drew 0.278 0.393 0.465 0.858 Lowell 0.282 0.349 0.459 0.808 Ellsbury0.320 0.374 0.436 0.810 Tek 0.253 0.349 0.418 0.767 Lugo 0.266 0.331 0.380 0.711

I've got yours, too. I mention an episode regarding Jeter making news in Florida that tangentially involves women with whom he spent the night. Immediately following it you write: Then you come back with, You can't even keep your own facts and insults straight...unless you care to allege that your post referenced any other previous post in the thread. Armchair Freud? You're projecting. Go try to deal with your ex. Flee the possibility of another Clinton Administration. Admit, again, that you're not capable of logical response at the same level as that found in other posts. But when you defend Derek Jeter by casting aspersions regarding the sexual preferences of those who disagree, you discredit your position, you invite caustic response, and you lower the plane of discussion.

Combining the first and last paragraphs of your post, I wonder if you trust yourself. In any case, I consider Jeter a tax cheater. Where you get off suggesting that those who judge others are usually pedophiles, I have no clue...and if you'll review my post, you'll find that I was commenting that Jeter is making his presence in Florida known, not questioning him for his choice to sleep with women out of wedlock. I expect that most MLB players are sexually active with either their girlfriends, their wives, or both. Most avoid scenes regarding parking fees the morning after, though...I sincerely wonder if it's an attempt to gain press that he's currently in Florida.

I'd take a chance on Wood for the right price. 1) Lopez is gone; Timlin may be gone. Boston's bullpen can count on Papelbon, Okajima and Delcarmen, but that leaves 3-4 slots open. Boston needs at least eight pitchers for 6-7 slots; there's room for Wood. 2) Wood doesn't need frequent use. He did better with infrequent use. All of his runs in 2007 were allowed on just one day's rest, save for one outing in Coors Field against the late-season Rockies. He had no trouble going two innings--his struggle in 2007 was pitching on short rest, reasonable for an ex-starter converting to the pen. 3) Kerry Wood still strikes out over nine men per game. In fact, the small sample size of 2007 could be removed from the heart of his career as a starter. Wood is still second all-time in K/9 rate per Baseball Reference, and everything about his pitching--save about 3 mph of velocity--is right out of his prime. You ask how much Wood would benefit Boston were he to go down. I counter, how much would it help Boston were he to hold up, allowing opposing batters roughly a .200/.300/.300 batting line? Okajima would become the lefty, and Wood would become the set-up guy, and baseball historians would someday marvel that Wood and Papelbon once pitched together for a year before Wood moved, Eckersley-style, to the second half of his HOF career. I'll acknowledge it'd be a gamble. I'd take the chance for a few million dollars to sign him for a year...I'd pay more for a contract with a team option second year.

Here's a great piece in Newsday today regarding the whole thing in detail: http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/ny-spjete195467845nov19,0,4074811.story Here's the Post coming down on Jeter's side today, blaming high taxes. http://www.nypost.com/seven/11192007/postopinion/opedcolumnists/big_apples_bite_923099.htm And here's the Sun today following suit: http://www.nysun.com/article/66666 And here's the Post today pointing out the policies behind the decision to pursue Jeter for back taxes: http://www.nypost.com/seven/11192007/postopinion/editorials/the_tax_man_grabbeth_300222.htm It seems as if you missed a couple of articles. You what's even funnier? Derek Jeter's lawyer appealed the finding you cite. They lost. It's already been adequately proven. Check the formal court record: http://www.nysdta.org/Determinations/821646.ord.htm Here's what gets me from the court documents: the state has set the date of Derek Jeter's move to New York City as February 9, 2001. It sounds to me from that precision as if they've got proof that he spent some fraction of at least 183 different days in the state for 2001-2003, which would be, by itself, sufficient evidence for the state to win. http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/ny-spjete195467845nov19,0,4074811.story Setting aside, for a moment, that I've just disproven your position, I think that it's clear that Yankees fans are all shouting, "Who cares? All Yankees fans cheat on their taxes! We still love Derek Jeter!" There's no profit to be made in reporting the issue as a scandal, so the local scandal sheets will move on to other business. *** Derek Jeter, though, has learned a lesson from this: he's got to become visible as a Florida resident. Here's an article documenting how he slept with two women and refused to pay for their parking, creating a scene at the front desk that documents his having spent the night in Florida: http://www.nypost.com/seven/10162007/gossip/pagesix/pagesix.htm

Coco? Hmmm. As a hitter? Yeah, except that his broken finger messed up his swing, and that he got back to his old OBP in the second half of 2007, and that in Jacobs Field he's been a .389/.389/.444 hitter since joining Boston, and that his stats in Fenway were terrible before he came to Boston. Excepting possible park effects and effects of past injuries, OK...although that may be the whole issue. As a fielder? Coco Crisp's 2007 season accounts for over 40% of his career value as a fielder, using FRAR as a metric. One can quibble with amounts, but it's clear that Coco's value as a defender has never been higher. Coco Crisp is an above-average MLB CF, certainly more valuable than a catcher who's a marginal hitter even in the bandbox that the Rangers call a ballpark. Laird's career batting line in Rangers Ballpark: .239/.297/.368 Laird's career batting line in Fenway: .222/.211/.278 If you look at the numbers, Laird looks much worse than Coco. *** Great to have Lowell; no need to give away Coco for less than fair value.

Let's check the actual law: http://caselaw.lp.findlaw.com/nycodes/c117/a69.html If, as has been published, Jeter failed to file 2001-2003 because he claimed a different residence while maintaining his primary domicile at Trump Towers, it appears that Jeter may be a felon. Barry Bonds was never told that he was using steroids. That's his testimony. He relied upon professional advice. Many perceive a moral issue. I perceive a moral issue here, too, especially given that it doesn't take an expert in tax law to realize where one lives.

Congratulations on your 4,000th post! :thumbsup: *** Yes, I know that you're discussing burden of proof...but I don't see why Federal law is relevant here. Do you? Edit: Here's the relevant part of the statute: Points: 1) Burden of proof only shifts after the taxpayer's production of all required documentation, and 2) There's nothing applying this Federal Law to the 50 states. Unless I'm still missing something... http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=105_cong_public_laws&docid=f:publ206.105

I'm eager to learn. How does the Federal Tax Reform Act of 1998 protect Derek Jeter with respect to a case brought against him in New York by New York regarding New York taxes? It would seem that New York state laws would apply...but I haven't yet researched this fully. Could you explain how Jeter is protected?

OK... Orlando Cabrera has one year left at $9 million. He'll be 33. 2007 WARP1: 6.1 2005-2007 WARP1: 13.7 Jon Garland has one year left at $12 million. He'll be 28. 2007 WARP1: 5.7 2005-2007 WARP1: 18.9 It's about a breakeven. Why would Chicago do it? It saves them $3 million, and O Cab had a better year than Garland in 2007. They can try to deal Uribe--he's not bad with his glove--and IF O-Cab hits as well in his contract year as he did in 2007, and if they get some value for Uribe, the ChiSox could win. Why would the LA Angels do it? Plenty of reasons: 1) They get the championship-caliber starting pitcher; 2) They get the player five years younger; 3) They get the player who's been better two of the past three years; 4) They have plenty of options left. I foresee Izturis at SS and Wood at 3B; that leaves Chone Figgins and Erick Aybar as utility players. They have three MLB-caliber shortstops (Wood, Aybar and Izturis) and at least four MLB-caliber third basemen (Figgins, Wood, Aybar and Izturis) after trading away O-Cab. Unless Garland bombs or all of their shortstop alternatives slump, the LA Angels win the trade. Getting a good 27-year-old for a 32-year-old coming off his best season since ages 26-28 (the only two comparably good seasons O-Cab has had) is a coup for any GM.

...for three years, again per your link. Wow. Assuming that we're in the 3/36 to 3/45 range, I think that most of us will consider this good news.

Wake up??? Gom, I'm the guy who's aware of statistics on this issue, I'm the guy who cited the sole exemption of military personnel, and I'm the guy who requested references if you choose to differ. You didn't, and you differed, suggesting that you're the one who hasn't done his research, not me. That's routine for US citizens working overseas. I've spent years of my life overseas; I know. This has nothing to do with residence in one US state vice another. Excepting military personnel, the issues are location of domicile, duration of stay, and location of employer. Derek Jeter lived in New York City, worked in New York City, spent more time in New York City than in any other place, voluntarily "moved" to New York City in 2004 (there's a legal reason that this is important), and just owns real estate in Florida. Again, that doesn't make Florida his state of residence for taxation. Ahhhhh...everybdy, note the slight semantic difference from his previous quote: "Personally, I couldn't care any less about this if I tried." Now it's clarified: Gom doesn't care about Derek Jeter's tax issues. OK...tax-cheating Yankees fans exonerate the Intangible Derek Jeter. Cool. My perspective hasn't been Jeter vs. Red Sox, it's been Jeter vs. Bonds. My point is, and remains, that this is more significant than Bonds's alleged perjury regarding criminal issues. Your bias for those who cheat on their taxes is noted. IRS: note please that the poster posing as Gom cheats on his taxes. The Federal Government knows posters by IP address, and links IP address to individuals. IRS, there is profit in auditing Gom. Aren't you a bit young and inexperienced to be welcoming me to the "real world," you condescending Yankees fan? This is the Internet: you don't know who I am. A little consideration of context might've revealed that your words and tone were grossly inappropriate, though. Perhaps; probably. After all, he could always request trial by jury in New York City. What jury in New York City would find Derek Jeter guilty? But, if you go back through the thread, my point is just that Jeter is more guilty of bad stuff than Barry Bonds. Both might face trial by jury; neither will likely be convicted. That doesn't exonerate Jeter ethically. As I've previously posted, though, there are more tax criminals than steroid abusers in our society to defend Jeter. Thank you for making my case.

Great! So you know the field! I worked in a different state than my home of residence many times. If you maintain a domicile in a given state, spend a majority of your time in that state, and earn your living from a firm in that state, you pay income tax to that state. There's one exception I can think of: US military. If you want you call me wrong, start citing references. You claim to be an expert: show it. One way, which would be sufficient, is that he lives in Trump Towers while playing with the Yankees at home. Adding to that would be his participation in New York night life during the off-season (which he certainly does), while living in Trump Towers. He doesn't live in Tampa. He lives in New York City. That's exactly how one can prove it. When Derek Jeter goes out, it makes the newspapers. There's a record trail of his whereabouts. True. But he chose to live in New York City and to claim otherwise on his taxes. :lol: Yeah, right.

Owning a home in a different state doesn't exempt you from paying state taxes in the state where you work and own a home where you live while you're working. You also say, "It's not a matter of Jeter being evasive and not paying his bills. He's a multi-millionaire, what reason would he have for not paying some taxes?" If so, why does the next defender say, See, people have incentive not to pay taxes. It's called greed. Unlike steroid abuse, which is limited to a small fraction of the population, tax evasion is rampant. A study in Oregon* found roughly 25% of the population commits tax evasion. The Washington Post reported that 17 percent of Americans ADMIT to tax evasion, and that the IRS admitted that between 60 and 79 percent of tax cheaters who were caught red-handed using various subterfuges didn't get pursued, explaining why it's perceived to be almost a risk-free crime.** The IRS finds that, as the gap between rich and poor grows, the tendency of the rich to cheat on their taxes grows as well.*** Imagine this: the US Senate discovers that there's concern that many MLB players cheat on their taxes. To investigate it, they promise immunity and secrecy, but they get players to testify under oath regarding their taxes. Later, the news breaks about Derek Jeter's secret claim that he had no idea that working in New York City and living in the luxury Trump Towers in New York City meant that he couldn't buy a much more modest home in a state with no income tax and claim that he resided there when he really rarely slept there. Still later, news breaks that Derek Jeter may spend 30 years in jail because of his assertion that he didn't know that he was breaking tax law: the DA is considering such an assertion of innocence to be worthy of prosecution for perjury. Ludicrous? Absurd? Let me post this: I may not know the exact content of every syringe that has ever been shot into me, but I know my exact home address, let alone knowing the state in which I live and work. Derek Jeter's actions are more despicable than Barry Bonds's actions. Maybe they both should be forgiven; maybe they both should be granted benefit of the doubt. Maybe they should both go to jail. :dunno: But maybe Jeter should be punished and Bonds should go free: Jeter cheated the taxpayers of New York, while Bonds, if he knew it, just cheated in playing a game. * http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0023-9216(197823)13%3A1%3C73%3AASOAIT%3E2.0.CO%3B2-E#abstract ** http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&node=&contentId=A13403-2003Dec18&notFound=true *** http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/bloomq.pdf

Assuming that Lowell plays as well in 2008 as he did in 2007, and assuming that Boston is forced to play without any third baseman at all if Lowell leaves, I'd concur. Recording an automatic out in the five-hole of the batting order every time it comes up can be a real handicap to a team.