Jayhawk Bill

IIRC, RA Dickey is a knuckleball pitcher who posted an ERA under 4.00 at AAA this year. The MLE of a knuckleballer's AAA ERA is almost the ERA itself: hitting a knuckleball is a different skill than hitting other pitching, and MLB players aren't much better than AAA players. I think that the Mariners got a winner. I also think that Brian Barton was a great pickup for the Cards.

Cam, all good points, especially the bit regarding Lugo, but also the others I truncated in this response. Losing Lester, Ellsbury and Lowrie costs the team talent, but it doesn't adversely affect the 2008 on-the-field team relative to 2007 overmuch if Crisp is retained and if Santana is acquired to fill the vacant pitching rotation slot.

True, VORP is predicated on offense. Calling a game is measured with CERA. After looking at CERA for years, serious analysts have pretty much discarded it. There seems to be no statistically significant ability of catchers to influence ERA. Keith Woolner wrote seven years ago: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=432 If the possible magnitude of a great game-caller's skill is 1-2 runs a year, it kinda fades away when compared to 50 runs' difference as hitters. Blocking the plate? That's one way that a catcher would influence a pitcher's ERA, so the work done regarding CERA captuired the (lack of) effect of plate-blocking. Certainly it might make a difference on one critical run in one game sometime, but 50 extra runs per year influence LOTS of games. Getting a VORP raise for slamming A-Rod? I'll venture that Tek got a pay raise for slamming A-Rod in 2004, as well as a "C" on his jersey, but I don't think that such things overwhelm 50-run differences. Look back: yes, the win that day started a three-game winning streak, but the next two were a defeat of a 5.64 ERA pitcher and a win by Pedro Martinez over the Orioles. Boston then dropped three out of four games. Boston lost the AL East to the Yankees by three games; they won the Wild Card by six games. As a fan, I love that Varitek moment, just as I love Dave Roberts's stolen base. As an analyst, I can't find much predictive value of such things regarding next year's performance. Stories are nice, but when they're used in an attempt to make a player look better than another one whose offense is three times more valuable, they can start to become deceptive and misleading. VORP is a very good measure of a player's offense. Posada's 2007 VORP of 73.4 was the best by any catcher for a decade, ever since Mike Piazza hit .362/.431/.638 in 1997. Variek's fifth-best 23.4 was exactly fifty runs lower. Defense can make up some of that: Dave Gassko considered Varitek three runs better than Posada defensively, while BP FRAA considered Varitek 13 runs better. BP FRAA takes a team-based approach to defense, while Gassko sticks strictly to individual stats, so I'm inclined to consider FRAA more strongly in this case. Throw in a couple of runs for good game-calling and, just for grins, a whopping ten more runs for leadership because Tek popped A-Rod in 2004 and we've still made up only half of the difference between the two. Even with all that said, I'm on record supporting a 3/34 for Tek. Posada's 4/52 is only $5 million richer over those first three years: I think that I'm supporting Tek more strongly than you might have beieved.

I'm guessing Chicago. Seriously, Boston has a full outfield, and players don't normally come from Japan to sit on the bench.

Building on what BudLight posted: 1) The guys at BP are reluctant to admit how big the AL-NL difference is. Yes, it has a greater impact on a guy like Miggy Cabrera, because changes in OPS are driven more by changes in SLG, and guys with higher SLG take a bigger loss if one models a percentage decline. That said, the 2007 Park Factors for Florida and Detroit are almost equal (1.07 vs. 1.05 per ESPN), with Detroit being 13.5% more HR-friendly, a big factor for Miggy. It's the difference in league talent levels driving the drop. Backing off from the Pythag method of determining wins and losses, using the 2007 137-115 Interleague record I came up with an 8-to-9 percent difference in league quality. That's not 25-30 points of OPS--that's more than the 64 points that Miggy is projected to lose. 2) A mitigating factor is that Miggy played in the NL East, facing all of the "good" teams. There's reason to discount NL Central stats more than those of any other division, and there's reason to remember that being on a team with great pitching means that you don't have to face it as much yourself. Miggy wasn't helped too much by not having to face the D-Train last year. All that said, the NL is more of a fastball league, and big sluggers are usually fastball hitters, and that lends credence to the theme of what Nate Silver wrote. I just want to point out that the overall difference has almost got to be greater than he's describing. *** And my post, of course, pointed out that Miggy's new 2008 PECOTA is almost equal to Mike Lowell's 2007 stats...and some folks consider Mikey a better fielder than Miggy, too.

My initial reaction to this was negative: I wanted to get a "contract year" out of Varitek, and then reward him if he were to show he's still got it. Further reflection and a little research convinced me that this is a very challenging issue, and that conventional wisdom may not apply. First, Tek did almost equally well in his contract year of 2004 and his next season in 2005. The reputed work ethic was proven: Tek can't be counted on for a contract year bump in his stats, because he already gives everything that he's got. Second, Tek is quietly moving into some very elite company regarding his talent and longevity as a catcher. Let's check MLB catchers by VORP, 2007: [table]NAME | VORP Jorge Posada | 73.4 Victor Martinez | 55.0 Russell Martin | 46.1 Joe Mauer | 30.2 Jason Varitek | 23.4 Brian McCann | 22.8 Josh Bard | 22.5 Kenji Johjima | 22.2[/table] I wouldn't've guessed that Tek would've beaten Brian McCann on this list. There's a big drop after Johjima--these are the elite eight catchers of 2007. Of these eight, two (Martinez and Bard), IMO, don't really have the skills to catch effectively, and one (Mauer) is destroying his knees catching and is going to have to change positions. That leaves Jason Varitek as one of the top five catchers in the game today. OK, then who are his comparables for analysis? :dunno: I looked at BR comparables; I looked at BP PECOTA comparables; I looked further. Most of the BP and BR comparables have to be thrown out, because they don't exhibit an important characteristic: at age 35, Tek was very close to his career stats while still playing 125 games as a catcher. Very, very few catchers can do anything like that. Here's what I get, roughly in descending order. Carlton Fisk Jorge Posada Elston Howard Gary Carter Bob Boone Rick Dempsey Benito Santiago We don't yet know about Jorge Posada. Howard and Carter still had a few more good years each. Howard sucked with the 1967 Red Sox in 116 AB, but he did a credible job with the Red Sox in 1968, The Year of the Pitcher, at age 39. Carter, already declining by age 35 (but included due to previous similarities), made it three more years as a half-time catcher. Santiago hit well right through the end of his career, and caught regularly through age 38 (steroids may have been a factor). Dempsey became a backup catcher after age 36 but continued to hold a job well into his 40's. The best single comparable, by far IMO, is Carlton Fisk. Fisk caught regularly through age 43, for a total of over 2,200 games. Jason Varitek has caught barely more than half as many games as Fisk caught through his career. My take: I'd take a leap at something that Boras might not easily agree to. I'd offer Jason Varitek a very lucrative two-year extension--something like $12-14 million per year--as long as he accepted a Wakefield-style recurring team option for a nominal sum--say $4-6 million--every year thereafter, with significant incentives for All Star selection, silver slugger, MVP votes received, and games caught over 80. Tek probably won't command $12 million after 2008, so this deal would let him lock in another $24 million. In return, Boston would get the rights to the latter days of his career at a discounted rate if he actually has another 500+ games caught left in him. Barring that, I'd offer an extension of 2/20 guaranteed for 2009/2010 with incentives for games caught over 100 bringing the total to a possible $12 million per year for 120-125 games caught.

The only NL team I can find as interested in Julian Tavarez is Philadelphia. There's an oblique reference to Julian Tavarez by a writer for the Inquirer: http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20071204_Phillies_still_hoping_for_help_on_the_mound.html The trouble might be that Philly has little to offer. They've made four prospects potentially available for pitching help now, according to the Wilmington News Journal: Carlos Carrasco, Joe Savery, Josh Outman or Adrian Cardenas. http://www.delawareonline.com/blogs/2007/12/dec-4-day-2-final-thoughts.html There's some good buzz about Carlos Carrasco: he's reputed to have been Philly's best prospect entering 2007. Sadly, he struggled with control at AA, hitting or walking 15.9% of his batters faced, over 6.5 free passes per nine innings. Carrasco does have an excellent fastball. Adrian Cardenas was the Baseball America High School Player of the Year, but he's already been switched from SS to 2B after a disappointing first season defensively. Cardenas projects for excellent batting average in MLB, but average IsoP and IsoD. Julian Tavarez was a very useful pitcher for the 2007 World Champion Red Sox. Versatile enough to switch quickly from starting to relief roles and back again, he was a positive influence on the team spirit and camaraderie. Either of the two Phillies prospects I mentioned would likely be a fair return for Tavarez, but I'd be sad--and a little reluctant--to see him go.

Interesting note: Nate Silver, BP, has posted Miggy Cabrera's 2008 PECOTA projection, including the shift from Florida to Detroit. It's .304/.381/.523, a 64-point drop in OPS. FWIW, Mike Lowell hit .324/.378/.501 in 2007. Just sayin'.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6970 Unlike others, Carroll was discussing a four-for-one rumor. Given that Lester was involved, the fourth was almost certainly Coco Crisp.

I usually consider the team that got the several young players to have won, but this time I'm not sure. Maybin strikes out a lot--really a lot--and that could derail his development. He's the cornerstone of the package: if he never develops, Detroit probably wins. A couple of points regarding Willis: 1) While Willis's ERA ballooned in 2007, that was mostly the result of a sore arm in mid-June. He was day-to-day after pitching just one inning on June 19th. He didn't get better until mid-September, but he had two strong starts and a good short outing to wrap his season. Willis had a 6.14 ERA through the three months following his injury--besides that he was pretty much the old D-Train. 2) One area where he really was "the old D-Train" was xFIP. His xFIP went up only 0.09 from 2006 to 2007, while his ERA went up almost a run and a half. That suggests bad luck with fly balls leaving the ballpark, and that's correct: his HR/FB went from 10.8% to 15.0%. He also had some bad D behind him: he's suffered badly having Hanley Ramirez at shortstop. Miggy is reported to have lost 15 lbs thus far this winter...he may be back with a vengeance in 2008. I don't yet know what to think. I feel that Detroit won the trade.

First, Jacksonian went out of his way to ridicule example1 for mentioning Kalish at all, so he's nowhere near vindicated--he's wrong. Second, if the final deal is Lester, Masterson and Kalish, not a five-for-one, example1 is completely vindicated. The rumors are going both ways right now--and some of us did take the time to point out that the Twins covet A-level prospects.

So Ellsbury now has the same agent as JD Drew, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Julian Tavarez, Craig Hansen, and Jason Varitek. I don't see an issue: Theo and the FO do business pretty well with Scott Boras when they want to. As for Jacoby, it sounds as if he's made a good move. Boras makes his clients rich men.

Nothing Gawd-awful about winning 11 out of 13 decisions, especially considering that his 2006 stats were messed up a bit by trying to pitch through a bout of cancer. You might toss in the sub-2.00 ERA in Boston's 2007 postseason, including the win in the deciding game of the World Series. That gives Lester a 12-2 record...pretty good for a kid. *** I understand your frustration. Again, Masterson and Lowrie are the 3/4 prospects in Boston's system: I understand Minnesota's thought process, just as I understand your frustration that Hughes/Cabrera plus a lower prospect wasn't good enough. IMO, Hughes and Cabrera were the two best players under discussion, and Minnesota chose numbers over magnitude of talent.

You've got a PM. Three brief points: 1) Listing players by VORP isn't even close to using a fielding stat to refine value; 2) Win Shares' fielding adjustment is predominantly position-based, as you gathered, so of course WS correlates well with VORP; and 3) FRAA assesses team fielding runs and divides them on merit, but it's got far more granularity on how to apportion those runs than Win Shares. There are other systems, mostly ZR-based in some way, that are probably better than FRAA, although there are aspects of FRAA that I appreciate.

What are we comparing? Likely career value? Ellsbury. Likely peak value? Hughes, by a narrow margin. Likely near-future value? Hughes, by a narrow margin. Highest potential upside? Hughes, by far.

I'm saying that I've seen no evidence that Terry Francona, rather than his players, is good.

I haven't run correlations between Win Shares and VORP + FRAA or WARP or VORP + PMR or UZR or some other run-based second or third generation defensive stat. The biggest difference would be defense; the correlations wouldn't be terrible, but Win Shares grossly overvalues good hitters who can't field and undervalues good fielders. As an aside, did you know that Coco Crisp's excellence in CF played a role in enhancing Manny Ramirez's Win Shares total? Yes, Bill James used overall DER to evaluate all outfielders. [/tangent]

Exactly. The four ALDS teams' managers split the vote. Terry Francona finished fourth...finished last of those who contended, if you will. Francona sucks as a manager. Check the work at BBTF by Chris Jaffe regarding managers. Terry Francona sucked with Philly and he sucked with Boston. He's had a habit of destroying pitchers, and a ton of position players have struggled with Terry Francona as a manager. He was one of the 20 worst managers of the 20th Century, and he's little better now. But you say, "Francona does a good job managing this team. Period. Nobody can say anything about this." I say prove it. And don't say that he's won two World Series, unless you're ready to explain that the talent he's received from the Front Office was inadequate to the task and that he did it by his managerial savvy. Show us objectively why he's a good manager, or cut the crap I just quoted you as posting.

Link? Radio station? Psychic friends 1-800 number?