Flaherty said it Thursday on YES.
"Molina gets you an extra strike every at-bat".
"At some point, you have to realize that what Molina gives you behind the plate is at least a run a game compared to Jorge."
This is what I've been saying. Do you have any idea how huge that is? For most of you, of course not, you'd have to actually understand the game to get it.
Through April 26, look at these stats:
Posada ERA: 7.97
Molina ERA: 3.09
I know what you're thinking...."He caught Wang...blah blah blah". Fine. Completely eliminate Wang. All 6 of his innings and 25 runs. Fine. Huge difference right? Wrong.
Posada ERA: 6.36
Molina ERA: 3.09
Posada has caught the 16-11, 22-4, and 15-5 losses. This doesn't count last night's numbers either...as the Yankees won 10-9. Small sample size? Sure. However, this gap is way too big to be assumed as coincidence. So...does Posada add 3 runs per game? He did last night, he added 4 runs, and the Yankees won 10-9. Keith Woolner completely missed, and most of you guys are sheep, and believe anything anyone tells you. Japanese manager use this CERA [catcher ERA]. American managers [as far as I know, don't]. Does that mean we're smart and they're dumb, or the other way around?
Posada had a great game at the plate, but another terrible game behind the plate [as per my bro, I was at the stadium, you can't judge balls/strikes as well]. You guys are coming to the stadium on Monday. Watch Posada behind the plate, and how many potential strikes he loses because as soon as he catches it, not only does he not frame it, he drops his glove. Pitches that are strikes are called balls.
I know most of you guys like laughing at people who watch the games and have played the game, and that clueless people like to track pitch f/x and then cry like bitches when the pitches they think should be strikes aren't called that way...but if you watch the game, you'll figure out why. The Red Sox are coming to the Stadium this week. For one inning, if it's a blowout either way, try watching Posada objectively. Then compare him to Varitek. Then, finally, you'll see what I'm talking about. If you remember, then watch Molina.
I'll even give you a quick primer, since I see more Yankee games than you do.
Forget pitch selection. We don't know what pitches are working, etc.
Molina sets up behind the plate before the pitcher goes into his windup, and puts up the glove for a target. He gets in position as the pitcher sets. Posada rocks back and forth, and actually puts up the glove while the pitcher is in the windup. He rarely puts up a target for the pitcher to shoot for. The pitcher is just guessing.
Watch how Molina frames the pitches. He pulls borderline pitches back into the strikezone, and HOLDS it there, allowing him to get a borderline strike call from the umpire. Posada does the exact opposite. He drops his glove after he catches the pitch, and pitches that are strikes are called balls. Sometimes he'll even stand up BEFORE the umpire makes the call.
I'm not the only one who thinks so either.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/165764-analyzing-yankee-catchers-jorge-posada-v-jose-molina
Since it's now discussed in the media, does that make it more or less correct than when I first preached it?
Going back to the blatantly obvious point. Let's take a look at Burnett. He has had 3 games caught by Molina, and 2 by Posada. Here are the results from the games:
Apr 30 LAA 7.0IP 8H 4ER 1BB 5K
Apr 25 @BOS 5.0IP 8H 8ER 3BB 3K
Apr 19 CLE 6.1IP 3H 3ER 7BB 2K
Apr 14 @TB 8.0 3H 2ER 1BB 9K
Apr 9 @BAL 5.1IP 7H 2R 1BB 6K
Gues which three were caught by Molina and which two by Posada? It's only a matter of time before someone comes up with a reliable statistic that will validate what I already know.
Even the most ardent stat-head realizes that some statistics have more merit than others. They are formulas. As a scientist, you formulate a hypothesis and then you create an experiment to test the hypothesis. Just because the results do not validate your hypothesis does not mean that the hypothesis was wrong, the test itself could be flawed.
Remember when Moneyball was the all the rage? How OBP was all that mattered, and defense was inconsequential? That was basically one of the tenements in the book. Just a few short years later, Bobby Abrea and Adam Dunn got much, much lower salaries than expected, even in this poor economy, because of their DEFENSIVE rankings.
Just because it's written doesn't mean it's true. Maybe watching a game once in a while has it's merits? Nah...that would screw up your spreadsheets.
Try thinking for yourselves once in a while.