jacksonianmarch

I think that's about right. We wont see the .300 50HR pace he was on for sure!

Gary has more power, but I don't expect him to continue his insane pace set last yr. I'm thinking .270-.275 20-25HR and high RBI totals mostly because he'll be hitting third in our order

Exactly harmony. Temper the enthusiasm. Everyone posting in this thread seem to be expecting prime Ted Williams. Let the kid figure out being a rookie first. One of the most important lessons a rookie needs to learn is the initial adjustment. That's when big league teams figure out a weakness and try to exploit it. Beni hasn't been around long enough to have one

Temper your enthusiasm on Beni. A successful first year is an OBP of .350 and double digit HR. He's young and he's a rookie.

Swihart is looking like a catching bust. First he couldn't handle a staff, then he couldn't block well enough or frame well enough and now he's Mackey Sasser. No point in dealing him now. You might as well demote him to AAA and see if he can work through the yips. If he's an OFer, his worth drops precipitously

You also have the remember that his best shape of his life comes over 30 and after a shoulder reconstruction. Maybe best shape of his life should have been at 22 and maintained and he'd be better than the player he has been

Levine is an idiot. That being said, there is always acrimony around arb cases. Levine just isn't happy he had to tell Dellin why he isn't worth what he asked for

He is just hurt that he lost his arb case. He is under control through 2019

While the class of FA's post 2018 is legendary, the class post 2017 is no slouch. Notable names are.. Eric Hosmer 1B Mike Moustakas 3B Yadier Molina C Carlos Santana 1B JD Martinez OF Lorenzo Cain CF Carlos Gonzalez RF Andre Ethier RF Jay Bruce RF Jake Arrieta SP Johnny Cueto SP (he can opt out) Yu Darvish SP Masahiro Tanaka SP Wade Davis CL There are plenty more lower tier pitchers, but Arrieta, Darvish, Cueto and Tanaka make for an intriguing top of the rotation conversation for sure. With a cap of $197 mil for 2017, it is hard to believe they'd stay under, especially since they are already at $194,669,999. I expect more players to trigger clauses or make the team who bring that up nominally and probably slightly exceed. Let's assume we extend Tanaka at his current rate. This leaves us with $120 mil committed with a cap of $197. We'd have to replace the production of CC, Clippard and Pineda on the pitching side. On the offensive side, Carter and Holliday will be the only ones who's contracts expire. Best case scenario is that some of our pitchers step up and we would need to sign only two starters and no relievers. I honestly think we wouldn't need Clippard come 2018. Even if we nab Darvish and Arrieta, we'd still have another $20 is million before we hit the cap. The likelihood that we'd land both is low, but the possibility of having Tanaka and Darvish atop our rotation I think is pretty good.

Even though we technically spent more in dollars in 2017, we offset that by losing significant dollars from guaranteed contracts and have a ton more coming off over the next 12-24 months. Plus, of all the spending, the only spending that crosses 2017 is Chapman's. Add in that Chapman got an $8 mil raise over what he was paid last yr and it really doesn't seem like much. I agree that I think Tanaka will opt out, but I also would be interested to see how his market is affected by his lack of a 200IP season and the recovery of his elbow. While he will have suitors, I doubt he has suitors to the degree that Darvish will. He has proven he can pitch in NY and I anticipate NY will do what it can to re-sign him. The dodgers are in a different world right now. NY seems to understand they are in a bridge year yet have the talent to be really good if everyone hits their potential. After 2017, we see a nice FA market. After 2018, we see an insane market. By 2019, the cap surpasses $200 million and by next year, we should be under it. Re-setting the cap will allow us to spend into absurdity as right now, we would be eligible for a 50-90% tax on overages as repeat offenders.

Fisk, spending kept us in the playoff hunt after our original team got old and gray. Thing is, spending was needed to surround our core. This current group is developing some talent. My hope is a new core can come of Torres, Sanchez, Bird, Frazier, Judge etc

If Tanaka doesn't opt out, our starting salary after the WS 2017 will be $115 mil which includes McCann's dead money. Factoring in arb raises, we're probably looking close to $122 mil. That leaves $75 million in lux tax room.

And Arod's money comes off the books too after 2017. You figure we spent $18 mil on Chapman, $13 mil on Holliday and $3.5 mil on Carter. We dumped $13 mil per year of McCann and dropped Teixeira's $22 mil and Miller's $9 per year. Chapman was making $10 mil before we dealt him, so that's really an $8 mil raise. With arb raises, 2017 is likely to be a bit cheaper ($15 mil or so). But after 2017, ARod, Holliday, and CC fall off. After 2018, McCann's other $5 mil plus Gardner and Healdey come off. We have a lot of expiring contracts with not a lot of expenses. We can return to spending next offseason and still stay under. By 2019, we will be able to spend like drunken sailors again

Rutledge is in position to be the platoon partner with Pablo

Kimmi, it was the weirdest thing. He'd mow down the first two hitters and then lose focus. 97 on the black was now 93 down the middle. 88mph slider out of the zone was a 82mph hanger in the zone. He'd eventually get out of the inning and start the next one gangbusters as well. His FIP was solid and his ERA after the first two mysteriously bad months was 3.83. He's a better pitcher than 2016 showed and maybe he is poised for a big year in his walk year. I wont be holding my breath, though

To back that up, 2 months into the season, hitters were hitting .440 with a 1.370 OPS with 2 outs

Pineda's problems are between his ears. He seemed to get two outs in a flash then allow 4 runs and then dominate the rest of the way. He has the combination of stuff and command that most teams would drool over. If he has another mid 4's ERA, look for him to be a massive overpay on the market because someone thinks they can "fix him"

I won't get my hopes up. I know what it means to hand over the guts of your team to unproven young players. Some will rise, some will fall. If all things click, we have the talent to make the playoffs. Seeing as most times they don't, I'm expecting a .500 ish club. We have two lean years ahead of us if Cash does things the right way. I'm intrigued about the process

That is assuming Pom doesn't end up needing TJS and is out until he hits FA

If Espinosa hits his potential, then you will rue the day you dealt him for a converted reliever with a history of arm problems

Does it really matter if they are former prospects? Regardless, Benintendi shouldn't even be on the list. He finished the yr in Boston as a starter and if it wasn't for injury, he'd have exhausted his rookie status. Same could be said for Aaron Judge.

Recurrence of lung cancer. Damn. Never good.

If a "strain" still hurts 6 months after the injury, then it probably isn't a strain

The only reason why Pablo is on your team is because of the money he is making. That being said, if he is actually motivated and has lost a bunch of weight, he might return to being good. I think the days of .300+ BA are probably over, but if he could hit .275 with 15HR, he could be a good enough player to help you win some ballgames. That being said, he is coming off a significant injury, so let's see who the new Pablo actually is

Both are in trouble if they're actual injuries and not organizational caution. Wright's shoulder should have healed by now if it was just a rotator cuff strain. Pom has had 4 months off. If his elbow is still barking then someone might need to take a look in there. These would be big developments if you weren't talking about your #5 and #6 starters...