jacksonianmarch

They're at 50-60% right now. They go down below the lux tax and they'll reset

A 65% penalty is one issue. Also, we're loaded with kids. Time to see if they can play and reload for 2018-2019

I'd like to see none in pinstripes to be honest. We're trying to get under the cap to reset penalties before splurging on the 2018 FA class

I don't get the love for Wade. He's a solid player, I get it, but his ceiling is an average starting middle infielder with a good chance he ends up as a backup. I like lists with guys whose potential is through the roof. Tate belongs on that list

The players want to have draft pick forfeiture removed from the QO process, but they don't want to allow the league to take a pick away for crossing the LT. Makes sense if they want their cake and eat it too. They'll have to give something up, probably the international draft. That being said, the players have been somewhat stagnant in their piece of the pie for awhile while the teams have managed huge profits. My guess is they will get most of what they want.

I think we get Chapman regardless of price. Yes, he is must see TV. But also, he proved on both the playoff stage and the NYC stage that he is the goods. But the big thing with him is the lack of draft pick compensation. Jansen is a great sign as well, aside from the pick comp.

Owens and Johnson are effectively valueless now. Swihart and Bradley might not be enough, but should get you close

Big FAs won't sign until the CBA is renegotiated. Teams aren't willing to open their coffers completely until they know the lux tax limit which is expected to rise to or past $200 mil

The Guardians and Cubs of 2016 and the Royals of 2015 all had one thing in common, powerful arms at the back of the pen. The Cubs are the only team of the three to have a stable of guys in the rotation capable of going deep into the game. Kimbrel will get it right, he is an elite arm. But losing Koji and Tazawa basically rids you of your bridge and youre going to need one if you plan on winning a title. DD has to be in on Chapman

He was a top 25 prospect in all of baseball. Those guys are headliners of deals. It's rare for 18 yr old pitchers to be top 25 guys, but he was

You paid the headliner price for a #1 or #2 and you got a #4

I still am scratching my head about Pom unless the sox had serious misgivings about Espi. You had Price, Wright and Porcello at the time of the deal. Wright was dealing and Porcello on his way to CY status. Price had started to turn it around then too. Why deal a top 20 prospect for a 4th starter especially when SP depth was thin in the system. I get the Iglesias move from years ago because you had Bogaerts. But Espi was your best pitching prospect by a mile and he goes 1 for 1 for a 4th starter who pitched well in SD with a major history of poor performance and injury. DD couldn't expect Pom to continue in Boston as a sub 3ERA guy. Heck, they had to effectively shut him down due to innings limitations as the yr went on.

The Pomeranz trade didn't make sense. I am talking about dealing Devers and Moncada for someone who can front your rotation

James Kaprielian had a pretty solid fall as well and finished his final start hitting 97mph. 26/8 K/BB ratio in 27IP with a 1.11 WHIP in a pitchers league. Very promising. And Dillon Tate, the #4 overall pick from 2015 who we got in the Beltran deal, found himself out there. Topped out at 98mph, had an 11/1 K/BB rate with a 1.07WHIP in 9.1IP out of the pen. He is likely headed to Tampa as a starter in 2017

If you eliminate losing teams, then you're basically eliminating otherworldly performances from contention based on the 24 other players on that team. Without Mike Trout, that team might have won 50 games.

Moon, your farm is not only there to grow your core but to also supplement what your big league team lacks. You have literally no upper level starting pitching prospects. Hence, the rotation you have now is the rotation you're stuck with for 2017. Say a Chris Sale actually comes available this offseason and you could get him without touching your big league club. If it's that one piece to win a title, is it worth dealing away a potential star to win that title? Look at the Cubs for example. They dealt a future star in Torres for a half season rental who was instrumental in winning a World Series. If Gleyber turns into a perennial MVP candidate, do you think for one second that Cubs fans would regret that deal? If the Sox won the WS the year they dealt Bagwell for Larry Anderson, do you think anyone would care? You play to win a title. If your team is close, then anyone not on the team has to be available to improve your chances to win it all

You guys have a window where the core is cheap. Now is the time to build on that and go for a title.

I don't deal Betances. I absolutely sign Chapman. That turns our back end into a killer 1-2 combo again. Melancon will get more than 4-50 and he struggles in the spotlight. He struggled in Ny and Bos. CC is a tough one. He was quietly our second best pitcher and is being paid $30 mil. If we eat too much, then it's a waste and if we don't get someone big league ready, we're hurting our 2017 team.

The depth of this system is absolutely insane. Any of the top 7 could be a top prospect in another organization. We just added two more high velo arms that could skyrocket up the system if they can harness their stuff. Abreu played 2016 as a 20 yr old (turned 21 in Sept) and pitched well in long season A ball. He sits mid 90s with plus flashing slider and changeup and a developing curve. FB can touch as high as 99. Has issues repeating his delivery, hence the high walk rate, but hitters don't hit him well and he racks up the K's. Jorge Guzman turns 21 in January and has even more heat than Abreu. He can touch 103mph but is best when he's SITTING 97-98. He has a developing slider and a nearly non-existant change for now. Both have high end upside. Both have some issues with repeating their delivery. IMO, Abreu looks more like a potential starter as he has the plus movement on 2 off speed pitches, while Guzman looks more like a 2 pitch pitcher with a supreme fastball.

He's the goods at SS, but if Didi is hitting 20 bombs a year with an OPS approaching .800, nobody is moving him off position. Gleyber starts 2017 in AA. If he tears it up and we're in contention, there's a chance he debuts in 2017

Gleyber won the AFL MVP, the youngest player ever to do so. He's gonna be a star

Abreu was #7 in stros system. Both guys top out over 100mph

Yankees getting into the mess of the hot stove. Sounds like NYY have hit a snag in their potential deal with Houston over McCann. He is owed $36 mil over the next 2 yrs and has a full NT clause, although he said he would waive it if it was closer to his home in Atlanta. Regardless, I still think this guy gets moved. 20HR catchers who play solid D don't grow on trees and the Yankees have made it clear they'd cover half his salary to get a good prospect return back. The Yankees have put Headley out there as a trade candidate. He had an abysmal April, but outside of April, he hit .265/.332/.417 which is pretty good for a 3b who plays really good D. Somehow he eeked out a 2.6 WAR per fangraphs and at $13 mil for 2 more seasons, he may find a bidder. Gardner has been a name out there for awhile on the trade front, but to this point, no bites. He has totaled 5WAR over the past 2 seasons and can play CF, but his defense has trailed off as have his SBs as father time robs some of his speed. He is still a top of the order bat with his .350+OBP and still plus speed, but he showed a regression in his power last yr as well. If the Yankees are to deal him, this is the offseason and they might even have to eat a bit of cash as he's got $26 mil left on his contract. And while he and Headley have the exact same amount of money, years and prior season's WAR, it's a whole lot easier to find a solid LFer than it is a solid 3B. I have read that the Yankees are back in on Beltran, which makes absolutely no sense. He hit the s*** out of the ball last yr and ended up being a good 3 yr deal for us, but he is 40 and is probably getting a multi year deal. I would hope Cash learned his lesson on those.

Swihart might be athletic, but catcher is more than athleticism. It's being willing to jump in front of a moving ball without flinching. It's understanding that a bat is going to hit you a few times a year and still catching the ball. It's throwing from an initial crouched position without hesitation to a base that currently isn't occupied. Catcher is the ballsiest position on the field. Swihart may have the innate athleticism to be a great catcher one day, but he doesn't show it in how he carries himself behind the dish. And I know this from my own experience. I played with a former big league defensive catcher. The guy was nuts. He'd block a ball with his face then throw a seed to get an out. He'd stare people down, talk major s*** in the box and just own it. You knew he was our leader even if he wasn't the captain.

Holland's velo was down, which is to be expected 13 mo after surgery. Smith returning in June would be 13 mo after surgery. Expect him not to have the velo off the bat