jacksonianmarch

With the signing of JA Happ, the Yankees are likely done adding to their rotation, but not done subtracting. To this point, Sonny Gray is still in the rotation, but he is expected to be dealt. Either way, while only one name of the following was not on the Yankee roster to finish 2018, having a full season of both Paxton and Happ will help with some of the uncertainty that the Yanks were facing when the playoffs concluded. Last year, our rotation was 2018 opening day 1. Severino 2. Tanaka 3. Gray 4. Montgomery 5. Sabathia As we saw, JMont had 4 of 5 solid starts before blowing out his elbow in Houston in May. He had TJS and is expected back around the ASB. Severino ended up having a CY level first half, then lost command in the second half for the second season in a row. Tanaka missed 5 starts with a hamstring injury and was the reverse Severino. He was so bad, he was almost pulled from the rotation in May. He then posted a 2.85ERA post ASB and was our best pitcher from Aug 1 on. Gray couldn't pitch in Boston or NY. Not an issue for a west coast club, a terrible issue for the Yankees and hence why he is on the trade block. Sabathia has fended off father time for years now. He has outperformed his FIP for 3 seasons in a row and has seen his FB velocity maintain right around 90 which has made him very effective in short outings. He is no longer a horse capable of throwing complete games, but he is good enough to give you 5 good innings every 5 days. We finished 2018 with Gray in the pen and JMont on the shelf. Happ was very effective for us and our 5th slot was filled with Lance Lynn and a cadre of children, one of which is now in Seattle. Happ returns to his slot in the rotation. The slot vacated by JMont was filled temporarily with Domingo German, who was a flop in his first extended stay in the majors. The kid has amazing stuff, just couldn't seem to avoid the one big inning. Loaisiga came on and was good in 4 starts before developing shoulder tightness. We then filled the spot with Lance Lynn, who gave us a 5th starter level performance. Enter James Paxton. Paxton was on cruise control and headed for a career high in innings when he was hit by a comebacker. He was averaging over 6IP per start when he was hit. When he came back, the Mariners were falling out of contention and limited him to 5IP per start for the most part, dropping his average. He has wicked stuff with high velocity. And while his lone 2018 start vs Boston didn't go so well, the 2 starts before that were 7 and 8 inning shutouts. Prior to 2018, his issues were muscle/tendon issues (back, shoulder, leg, etc). Last year, a comebacker is what hurt him. We shall see if he has overcome his injury woes and can reach his potential in NYC. Happ also returns to a slot that he filled with relative ease. His time in NY was nothing short of sensational. While he only averaged under 6IP per start, his production was exceptional. More K than IP, a WHIP near 1 and an ERA well below 3. He replaced Gray who's ERA was close to 5 and his peripherals all suffered when he took the mound in NY. 2019 rotation 1. Severino 2. Paxton 3. Tanaka 4. Happ 5. Sabathia Either way, nobody will sit back and say the Yankees downgraded in the rotation department. We have a leader of the rotation who has finished in the top 10 in the CY two years in a row in Severino. Tanaka has been lights out to finish seasons 2 years in a row. Sabathia has been steady yet unspectacular. Happ has continued his late career renaissance. Paxton adds a possible co ace with Severino. The rotation is gonna be really good if they can stay healthy. They can be lights out if Paxton and Severino can reach their potential together. And do not forget the important of having Montgomery ready post ASB and having your top prospect in AAA ready to come in if need be (Loaisiga).

Nick, I agree with you on that one. To look back on the history here, when the Yankees signed Teixeira, we gave up the 25th pick in the 2009 draft. We won a title in 2009. That draft pick turned into Mike Trout. Flags wave forever, but damn I would love to see Trout in pinstripes!

The problem for Machado is his main non Yankee suitor just got Segura. I think the writing was on the wall. When the Yankees are in on a negotiation, the money goes higher than most teams are comfortable going. Heck, the Nationals gave out a contract far beyond expectations for Corbin as the Yanks were involved and the Yankees didn't even submit an offer! Machado's actions in the playoffs definitely hurt his bargaining power. Harper not having the Yankees involved hurts his as well. Both of these guys will get massive money. I just don't think either are getting what they hoped. Now the Nats offered Harper 10 yrs $300 mil, although they are the kings of the deferred contract. I wonder how much they offered in deferred funds. I still stand by my initial prediction. Both are going to get 8-10 yr deals. Both will get less money guaranteed than anyone is predicting. They both will have front loaded deals and they both will have an opt out after the higher AAV money runs out. I agree with the above. The Dodgers are getting Harper and the Yanks will snag Machado

Two problems with this. Porcello isn't an ace. He's a guy you throw into the middle of your rotation and be happy. Also, Porcello isn't cheap. Look at what the Yanks gave up for Paxton. Paxton isn't durable, so theres a knock, but he is an ace level pitcher when healthy. He is under cheap control for 2 seasons and all he cost was one top prospect, a high floor pitcher and an OFer with promise who was old for his league in 2018. The likelihood of getting a top prospect for Porcello and getting salary relief is low. You are likely looking at dealing him away for something valuable and another contract or getting some B level players and ridding yourselves of the contract entirely. This is why Porcello is on your team still. His worth to the sox vs what he would be worth elsewhere is tilted significantly. There is also the matter of your main rival being very RH dominant and the rest of your staff being left handed sans Eo.

Never have those penalties hurt us on the field beyond just paying out cash. The sox are the first team to incur a penalty with tangible talent detracted without bringing talent in. Losing $2.5 mil in draft pool and losing 2 picks in the 30s is a significant hit as will the drop in INTL funds. Think about this for a second. The sox would have had the 33rd and 36th (Kimbrel) picks in the draft. They will now have the 43rd and 136th picks in the draft. Their draft pool drops by $2.5 mil, which hurts the chances of drafting a guy high who will cost less and dropping back to get a signability case. They also will lose $1 mil in IFA funds. To put that into perspective, the sox will have one extra pick on the Yankees but about $200K less in funds, and by draft order would have only picked two spots after the Yanks

How big is their window, realistically? 2 years? The Mets always make a splash ahead of what they think is a chance to win. Their chance to win was after 2015 when they went to the WS. Instead, they got cheap and lost. Their offense crumbled and their leader ended up on long term DL stint. They do have a shot to win the ALE, I agree there. But a win of the weakest division in the NL and a swift kick out of the playoffs isn't entirely desirable. Yes, their pitching staff is formidable. But their wagon is hitched to DeGrom (who is awesome), Thor (who is awesome when healthy) and Wheeler (who has had one great healthy season following years of bad health). Matz is a good 4th starter and you can pick Lugo as their 5, I guess. Their staff wont be an issue. But they cannot hit. Their best hitter is a 36 yr old guy coming off a roid suspension. Their OF has promise, but cannot stay on the field and cannot consistently contribute. They did just get a catcher who can hit, but he cannot stay on the field. The left side of their infield is a mess offensively. Their 1b is Dom Smith, who sucks. They're not a championship level offense and with the era of the superteam, they're doomed from the start. Maybe Brodie just wants to hang more ALE title flags from the walls?

In 4.5 seasons with the Mariners, he posted 2 excellent seasons (5.6 and 6.2 WAR), 2 good seasons (2.8 and 3.2WAR) and one excellent half season (2.9WAR). He finished 2018 as a very good defensive second baseman as well, so even if the offense starts to drop he can still play the position. The Mets are foolishly going for it this year. Yes, they have the starting staff. Yes, they now have the bullpen. But even with the additions of Cano and Ramos, the lineup is very uneven. The one thing about Cano that has always been true is that he almost never is the offensive leader on the club. For years, he was overshadowed by ARod and Jeter in NY. He goes to SEA and Cruz is the offensive leader. He is always a great secondary piece. Now while the Mets have offensive talent, they are basically asking Cano, at 36, to be the main guy. It isn't gonna work well.

The comp pick drops once you jump the first threshold.

It’s basically just those who are over the cap. Large or mid market aside. You jump the cap, your comp picks will drop

His production was good again last year. Can he be worth $74 mil over the last 5 yrs? I assume he could. Heck, he could be worth it if he has one more big year then a bunch of above or at replacement level seasons

You get the 136th pick in the draft

With how velocities have gone, guys who throw low 90s now have almost no wiggle room. They either need to locate on a dime or have such movement that they cant be hit

And since three picks didn't sign last year, the sox drop from 33 to 43. They lost 10 spots and $477K (after the 5% overage) in draft pool loss

Cano's deal to this point has been a good one. 20.7 WAR over 5 years. Per fangraphs (big pinch of salt on this one), he has been worth $163.7 mil and had been paid $120 mil.

Arod’s first ten year contract was a good deal

It’ll be something where his first three year AAV is stupidly high but the last 7 years will be cheap relative to his talent. There’ll be an opt out after three years

I think Harper follows the money. I think Machado goes to the Yanks in a creative deal that may not have the highest guarantee, but he will get an early opt out and a higher AAV up front

How do we know one wasn’t recommended?

Casas is too far away to be worth anything and yet the Sox sunk too much into him to sell him now.

We will see what the relief pitching market entails. Dave has had issues building pens but he’s never lacked a closer. In Florida he had Rob Nen. In Detroit he had Valverde and KRod. In Boston, he’s had Kimbrel. All guys obtained were closers when they got to their teams

I’m not saying that at all. I’m saying that tight shoulders that then recover with much less velocity usually aren’t “nothin”. I bet he knows he’s got something there and thinks he can pitch through it or he doesn’t want to know what’s there and is willing to roll the dice

He will get more than 3 yrs though. And one must remember, JD's contract is front loaded. He will take the $50 mil he will earn from Boston for 18-19, put it in the bank and probably get a 4 yr deal around the $25 mil mark. JD would be opting out of a 3 yr $60 mil deal, which he should beat on the market

And Freddy, while you may choose to wear the rosy glasses, look at the velocity of Sale in his start in Houston. Average FB velocity of 91.3. In the World Series, his average velocity was 93.4 but in Inning #4, he was at 91.8. Brushing over it and pretending like he was throwing his usual smoke is just Kool Aid drinking.

Pineda's first MRI with us was negative. His second one with contrast showed the tear. A standard MRI without intra-articular contrast is not going to show a labrum tear reliably unless it is ripped off the bone. Now, most pitchers have baseline abnormal MRI's even without symptoms. So who knows, maybe they know there is some fraying of the cuff in the shoulder and that is consistent with his baseline MRI. Or maybe Sale agreed to a non-con MRI but not an MR Arthrogram. The arthrogram requires a needle inserted into the joint and contrast infused in. It is not benign and it is painful. I can see if Sale said "I'm good" when offered this option

It's invasive and one wonders whether Sale wanted it done. The player has to consent