jacksonianmarch

says the guy with Mr. Tingles, Eovaldi and ERod in his rotation. And how was Sale's shoulder by season's end?

The rotations as comprised had a distinct WAR advantage in the Yankee direction.

For 2020, you have.. Price $31 mil Medicals $15 mil Pedroia $13.75 Betts (projection) $25 mil Eovaldi $17 mil Vazquez $4.45 mil That's $106.2 mil. You will still have to pay: Benintendi- arb 1 Bradley- Arb 4 ERod- Arb 3 Barnes- Arb 2 plus others. But if Barnes is your closer and racks up saves, those cause the cost of arb to rise dramatically. Let's just say for argument's sake the cost of the above 4 players is $30 mil That leaves you with a sunk cost of $136.2 mil. If Pedroia cannot play (distinct possibility), you will need to fill 1B, 2B, SS, DH, SP1 and SP2 while also taking into account pen and minor costs to fill out the 40 man. The cap for 2020 is $208 mil. Can you even do that for $71.8mil? Would you even want to? If you signed Bogey for example to a $25 mil AAV contract. That leaves you with $46.8 mil to fill 3 position player positions and 2 rotation slots. Would you be willing to ride with Price, Eovaldi, ERod, Johnson and Velasquez in your rotation? How about Chavis and Dalbec at 1b and DH respectively? Doing so would probably gift wrap the division to the Yanks. This is why I am saying DD's approach this year seems foolish. How can you leave a gaping hole in the pen when your team is within their window. He's gonna go over the final threshold again. Just do it, be the favorites for another title and then let the chips fall where they may after 2019

Slav, you seem to forget how good Severino was for 4 months of the year. He still ended up top 10 in the CY. That's two consecutive top 10 finishes (he was 3rd in 2017). He is WAYYY better than Price. Price saw a velo drop and a HR rate rise. He was effectively persona non grata in Mass until he had two good starts in the playoffs. And in terms of WAR, he was tied with Porcello for 2nd in your rotation. Now clearly, if I am to rank a staff, I should assume Sale is healthy. That being said, we don't know if he is. If he is not healthy, this is a Yankee win 1-5 by a long shot. If he is healthy, then the edge goes to the sox. I don't think you guys truly understand how ridiculous Sale has been the last two seasons. His numbers are ridiculous and his 2018 was trending to be a Pedro like year before he went down. He is the entire reason for the difference between the 2 staffs. If he goes from 7WAR to 2WAR, the Yanks have this. 1. Chris Sale- the guy posted a 6.5WAR in 27 starts. He missed the 200IP mark for the first time since 2014. He also found a way to keep the ball in the yard, which was his one real bugaboo. If he is healthy and posts a full year with the same peripherals as the last two seasons, nobody can question his ranking atop here 2018 WAR 6.5 2. Luis Severino- yes, he gets maligned for the way he has finished the last 2 seasons. There are thoughts that he is pitch tipping since his velocity and stuff haven't changed. Batters just seem to catch on to his 100mph heat, lights out slider and dynamite change after the ASB. My guess is he reverts to old habits as the season wears on. If he can finish the season the way he starts them, he will be challenging Sale for the top spot. As it stands, he posted a 5.8WAR 2017 and a 5.7WAR 2018. That's 3WAR higher than Price in 2018 and Sevy turns 25 in 2019, while Price turns 34. How can you possibly rank Sevy behind Price? 2018 WAR 5.7 3. James Paxton- Paxton has had some bad luck while also being a late bloomer, but it doesn't take away from what has been 2 great performances in injury shortened seasons. In 2017, he threw 136IP until arm soreness plus the Mariners being out of it shut him down. Last year, he set a career high in IP and starts yet missed time due to being hit in the arm by a comebacker. His stats prior to being hit were insane. He just turned 30 yrs old. He has stuff for days. He's a lefty in Yankee Stadium. Assuming he can avoid getting hit by a comebacker, he has the highest ceiling of the pitchers left on this list. And even if he has an injury shortened campaign, his ridiculous peripherals will still rank him ahead of the rest of your staff 2018 WAR 3.8 4. JA Happ- the knock on him is age, and that is clearly a concern, but Happ has found the fountain of youth of sorts. He has found some slight added velocity and has found a way to significantly improve his K rate while continuing to show a low walk rate. His bugaboo like Price's last year was the HR and in YS, that isn't likely to decrease. But look at the rest of the guys on the list and find me someone more consistent than Happ. Over the last 4 seasons, he has thrown between a 2.8-3.4 WAR with 30 or more starts in 3 of those 4 seasons. I would give the edge to Porcello due to age, but Happ has outperformed him on almost all levels the past two seasons. 2018 WAR 3.2 5. Rick Porcello- There is something to be said for consistency. Rick has started 27 or more games 10 years in a row now. That is baffling. Outside of one career season and 3 seasons where he was bad, he has posted between a 2.1-2.9WAR in 6 of those years including 2 straight. He is what he is. He's gonna have a low 4's ERA. He is going to have a K rate somewhere in the 7.5-9/9IP. He's going to have a high HR rate. He's going to have a sub 2.4/9IP walk rate. He is what he is. 2018 WAR 2.7 6. David Price- It's kinda weird that 3 pitchers between our squads posted an identical WAR (Porcello, Price and Tanaka), but I am putting Tanaka slightly behind Price for reasons I will detail later. Price showed he was healthy this year beyond the Mr. Tingles garbage and his bugaboos against the Yankees. He started 30 games and 5 more in the post season. He didn't have his pre-injury velocity or pre-injury endurance, though, with his IP/start average down below 6 for the first time since his rookie season (outside of the 2017 injury shortened season). His HR rate spiked to a career high. But his K rate held solid above 9, his walk rate stayed strong in the mid 2's and he was able to be effective despite some lost stuff. I think a lot of people are looking at what he did vs Houston (the second time) and vs LA and forgetting that he was an above average starter. Not an ace by any means, but an above average starter for 2018 and with him closing in on 34 yrs old and already seeing a velo drop, the days of him being an ace are gone. But he is serviceable and more a #3 starter these days than a #2. 2018 WAR 2.7 7. Masahiro Tanaka- Tanaka has been interesting since he came to NY. He broke onto the scene as a fireballer with amazing stuff, then tore his UCL. When he came back, he was throwing differently. Less 4 seamers, more 2 seamers, sliders, and splitters. He is the quintessential junkballer, throwing far more pitches with movement than he does straight pitches. Usually, that translates into soft contact, but Tanaka hangs too many pitches and this boom or bust style pitching is why I put him behind Price and Porcello. His HR rate is nearly 1 every 6 innings, which is far too frequent. Yet his K/BB ratio is better than the above 2 pitchers on this list, that HR rate posits an ERA in the low 4's. Now Tanaka is the better post season pitcher over his career. His post season numbers are absolutely silly and he may even elevate to our ace once fall comes, but over 162, I have him behind Price and Porcello. 2018 WAR 2.7 8. Eduardo Rodriguez- Talk about boom or bust. Eduardo has the stuff of a top of the rotation pitcher yet the approach of a lamb. His K rate is 4th among out 10 rotation spots behind only Sale, Paxton and Severino. He found a way to limit the walks in 2018 down to 3.12/9IP. He still gives up the HR at a big rate. His issue is he cannot seem to shake lower body injuries. He has missed time 3 years in a row with lower body issues and his body shape has only increased as he has gotten a bit older. If he comes into camp in great shape and can avoid the lower body issues, he could rise into the top 4 between our rotations. If he continues to have issues, then he will stay back here. 2018 WAR 2.3 9. Nathan Eovaldi- Tantalizing stuff and finally a post season of the ages puts Eovaldi in a weird position. His regular season stats have always lagged behind the big fastball and slider. He added a cutter, but he still couldn't crack a big IP/start number in 2018. Maybe he does so in 2019? He has had his elbow reconstructed twice, which is a rare event for most pitchers. He looked good at seasons end. Can he avoid his boom or bust tendencies? Will his K rate remain strong, as his history shows he gives up way more contact than a guy with his stuff should? I think a lot of people are overrating him based on one month's production. I have seen Eovaldi be absolutely dominant for a month in a Yankee uniform. Only to follow that up with a dud. He could reach the top of these rankings if he hits, but as a guy who has rooted for him and watched him be maddeningly inconsistent with the kind of stuff and command he possesses. He will need to prove he can harness it for more than a month and be healthy to be anything more than your 5th starter to me. 2018 WAR 2.2 10. CC Sabathia- That is assuming he can actually play. He is obese and just had a stent put into a coronary artery. He is going to need to clear cardiac rehab before he can play or run and if he cannot run come ST, then he won't be in shape enough to pitch as a starter. Assuming he does, CC continued a career renaissance and the type of clubhouse presence that helped our pitching staff as the season went along. That being said, CC has thrown 27 or more starts 4 years in a row and somehow has found a way to still strike batters out and generate one of the lowest exit velocities against in the game. But he turns 39 in season and just had a coronary stent. My guess is we see CC, maybe Gray and maybe one of the kids in this spot. Who knows. Hence why this spot has to be 10. CC outperformed ERod and Eovaldi in WAR last year, but I cannot predict that going forward. Whatever we get is gravy. 2018 WAR 2.5 The interesting thing about the rotations is the Yanks out-WARed the sox last year 17.9-16.4. With CC down and maybe Gray in or one of the kids, we could do better or worse. Heck, watch Sonny Gray come in and be the balls in his contract year and walk away after the year with double middle fingers up while he goes off and signs in Milwaukee.

Yeah, they really put up a fight in game 5. And in games 3 and 4.

You cannot reset after 2019 without letting all of your FA's walk

And if we get Machado, our offense will be better than yours as well. With Paxton, Sevy and Tanaka at the top and Sale looking hurt, there is a strong chance we topple you there too

That's pretty dumb, to be entirely honest. Take off the rose colored glasses

We lost a silver slugger effectively for the whole season in Sanchez who couldn't hit and it turns out he had a shoulder issue that is now surgically fixed. Stanton was sub par in his first year in NY. We lost Judge for 6 weeks. Our 1b position didn't solidify until August. We will have a full year of Happ and Paxton (who you conveniently seem to forget is a Yankee). We offset Robertson by having a full year of Britton. Kahnle is now healthy. Sale's second half-less season doesn't remove the fact that his 150ish innings racked up a 6+ WAR season. The guy who finished the year looked hurt. If he is not the same, then you're in trouble. Eovaldi was okay in the regular season and became a hero in the post season. He is not an ace. Price lost some velocity and saw a career high HR rate. And while he had two good postseason starts, people seem to forget he had two really bad ones. He's got a ton of miles and is a power pitcher. ERod had the most upside of the guys who missed time last year and he might offset some lost production from Sale should he not be healthy. That is assuming ERod has a healthy season, which he never does. Your offense was buoyed by a career season from Betts. He is gonna regress. I doubt JD has a third consecutive career season. Pedroia is likely not coming back as a guy you'd want to see play. Thornburg has been trash since surgery. If we add Machado, how does that not do anything? You don't add a 6WAR player and not improve

Didi isn't dead. CC is the #5 starter. If Voit is still at 1b by season's end, then he will be having a great year.

How does it keep you favorites? You lose Kelly and Kimbrel and bring in a guy who was awful last year with the hopes he finds it in the pressure cooker of Boston? The Yanks got better already. They are probably getting even better before the season. And you are getting worse

He is 1 for 1 in titles for years coaching. He cannot complain at this point. The sky isn't falling, but DD is waiting out a market that has gotten hot and is moving fast. You will not repeat with the pen as is. You wont win the division with the pen as is

I really hope you get Cody Allen or Brad Brach to close. You will lose a lot of games you should have won

I am going to assume the sox take a page out of the Boras book and offer a "swellopt". 3 year guarantee with an opt in after year 2 for a 2-3 year deal. If the sox opt out, Kimbrel can continue on for one more year or opt out and become a FA

Eovaldi didn't average 5IP with Boston before the playoffs. He will tax your pen

Never said Barnes would come back to his norm. Just saying he walks a lot of guys, gets hit more than you'd expect with his K rate and stuff and has perpetually underperformed based on FIP. I value velocity with performance and K ability. We have had some guys with serious heat who sucked. But the Yanks now have a top 4 in their pen who could headline most team's pens who all throw hard and have the ability to have high K rates and miniscule ERA's Thornburg has never proven to be good when he doesn't have elite velocity. Since the surgery, he hasn't had elite surgery. Velazquez already had his career year. The likelihood that he outperforms his FIP by as much as he did again is low. Workman same, his stuff isn't great and he outperformed his FIP. Poyner is crap and you know it. Maybe he carves out a LOOGY niche, but he's not likely to be a great pitcher. Johnson was not very good and offers no upside. Wright had microfracture late in 2017 and another procedure in November. He and Pedroia are in the same recovery squad. Lakins is a lottery ticket. We have those too There are two guys on the market right now guaranteed to be better than the middle relief fodder you have and they are Kimbrel and Ottavino. The others guys on the market are coming off horrendous seasons with alarming peripherals or loss of stuff. If Ottavino and Kimbrel go elsewhere, you're in trouble as most teams don't have easy to acquire, cheap closers available ERA rankings of pens the last 5 years 2018 Red Sox- 9th 2017 Astros- 17th 2016 Cubs- 6th 2015 Royals- 5th 2014 Giants- 5th 2015 is really when the renaissance happened, but the 2014 Giants were not too shabby. The 17 Astros were able to put a pen together in the playoffs when they moved McCullers into the pen for the playoffs and he was lights out. They also had a rotation that was unbelievable. You also must remember that Sale is coming into the season off injury and lost power, which if it carries over, will be a deathknell of the sox. And the leads you hand over may be blown with the current personnel. It is not above average. Without Kimbrel and Kelly and then considering that only one player underperformed in 2018 based on FIP (Barnes), you are likely looking at regression from the pen that remains. That would be crushing for a club with the hopes to repeat If you add a piece or two. And yes, your guys came up big in the playoffs. But are you really going to let your pen guys go 162 games with the hopes that their short sample size in the playoffs carries over?

Like I said, the Angels need to significantly overcommit to beat out the sox.

I think Britton saw the ability to win and potentially be the Yankees closer by 2020 plus the money and jumped. The Angels will need to blow away a team like Boston or NY to grab someone.

So everyone and their mother has weighed in on this site about the sox need for fiscal frugality come 2019 so they can save money to keep the band together. I think everyone is looking at Barnes and Brasier and being somewhat happy (although probably not realistically so) about the end of the pen. But what isn't realized is the loss to the middle relief that must occur if the sox close games from within. Let's take a look at the sox' options for 2019 should they not sign an outside force. Closer: Matt Barnes- 2018 stats- 65IP 14K/9IP 4.5BB/9IP 0.73HR/9IP 3.65ERA 2.71FIP Matt Barnes was nasty last season. His K rate was a career high. His HR rate was a career low. Then why was his ERA and FIP so far off? Mostly because his BABIP was high. As a matter of fact, Barnes' BABIP is always high. His career BABIP is actually higher than the .321 he put up last year (by one point). For a guy who is so dominant to allow hits as often as he does when a ball is in play is strange. Couple that with his propensity for walks (1 every other inning) and you have a guy who underperforms based on FIP on an annual basis. You can definitely do worse than Barnes, but he puts a lot of guys on base and gives up a strange amount of hits when guys make contact. Not the best idea for closer on a championship team, but he's the best you got. 8th inning/primary set-up man- Ryan Brasier- 2018 stats- 33.2IP 7.8K/9IP 1.9BB/9IP 0.53HR/9IP 1.60ERA 2.83FIP Brasier has the opposite effect of Barnes in terms of peripherals and outperforming FIP. Brasier outperformed his FIP was 1.2. He outperformed his xFIP by 2.18! Brasier has the velocity to be a back end guy for sure. But how often can he rely on a .198BABIP especially when guys put the ball in play as much as they do and his groundball rate is good but not great. Also, coming into 2018, he had been a 2.5-3.6 BB/9IP guy, which is good to ok. His BB rate of 1.87/9IP is absurd and likely not sustainable. You could do worse than Brasier in the setup role, but for a guy with his stuff, he cannot rely on keeping a sub .200BABIP forever. 7th inning/secondary set-up man- Heath Hembree- 2018 stats- 60IP 11.4K/9IP 4.1BB/9IP 1.50HR/9IP 4.20ERA 4.19FIP Hembree is what he is. He has had consecutive 10+K/9IP seasons. He has also had consecutive 1.4+HR/9IP seasons and saw his walk rate really devolve in 2018. He lost almost 1mph from 2017 for some reason and now sits where he had the previous 2 seasons, in the 94 range. Not sure if that's the reason for his higher HR rate or walk rate, but so be it. Hembree is a JAG with a good K rate. His walk rate and propensity to give up homers is unsettling, especially when he projects to be your first reliever out of the pen if your starter goes 6 and departs with a lead 6th inning/tertiary setup man Brandon Workman- 2018 stats- 41.1IP 8.1K/9IP 3.5BB/9IP 1.3HR/9IP 3.27ERA 4.42FIP Workman would slot into the last of the "set-up" men. He would probably be the first man up should a starter hand the lead over after 5 innings. He may also be the first man called upon if the starter hands over a small deficit. His ERA from 2018 was very strong, but he outperformed his peripherals by a lot and the HR predilection is alarming to say the least. He has had some serious health issues and saw his velocity drop back by a full mph this past season compared to 2017. He also faded heavily in September, registering a 6.48ERA, yet somehow won 4 games. Either way, he is not terrible, but with his HR rates, lower K rate and non-impeccable command, he is the kind of guy who can be a Firestarter in the pen Primary Long Reliever- Hector Velazquez- 2018 stats- 85IP 5.6K/9IP 2.75BB/9IP 0.74HR/9IP 3.18ERA 4.15FIP Velazquez is what he is. A guy who can give multiple innings without any flash or stuff. He throws strikes, but pitches to contact to the extreme. He outperformed his FIP by a lot as well, and probably cannot be expected to replicate his 2018 ERA numbers That's 5 relievers. The sox will carry 7. Brian Johnson will likely be amongst them, but he sucked in 2018. The final spot will likely be a competition amongst some low ceiling relievers in the high minors. The fact remains, pulling Barnes and Brasier up to replace Kelly and Kimbrel really exposes the sox underbelly. And while the guys in the middle aren't entirely awful, they all have big HR rates, higher than expected hit rates and non-impeccable walk rates, meaning that they're gonna blow some leads.

1. Agree to a point about counter moves. I never liked the move for the sake of a move thing. But a move to counter a rival move that would neutralize their move makes sense. Like if the Yanks all of a sudden went all right handed and the sox go out and get a RH pitcher who murders RH hitters....oh wait, the sox did that... 2. Agree on that too. Just because the other options are falling by the wayside doesn't mean you have to outbid yourself. That being said, the sox and Kimbrel look like a fait accompli at this point. One side just needs to blink a little and a deal will get done 3. Yes, the Yankees have the majors best pen. Yes, they had the majors best pen last year. And that was with us losing a major contributor from 2017 in Kahnle, who is healthy for 2019 4. It got us one Benintendi diving catch away from taking you to a game 5 with a battered Chris Sale in Fenway. The Yanks were the only team to actually put up a fight against Boston. 5. The Yanks addition of Paxton plus a full year from Happ and Britton more than makes up for the loss of KRob. The sox get a full year out of Eovaldi (which is intriguing) and Pearce (probably less so). The sox losing their setup man and closer to free agency without replacing them would be devastating. Right now, if tomorrow was opening day and all FA's signed elsewhere, I don't think you can say you are the unequivocal favorites

You’re not getting Smith for nothing and that proposal is nothing. This thread has been very interesting and shows what a team at the end of their window needs to think about. If you get a top notch reliever or two, your chances to repeat in 2019 rise yet your chances after 2019 drop. It’s the classic carpe diem vs playing the long game argument. Here’s my take on this. With how the CBA has changed things and with the lux tax line really altering large market thinking, you don’t get the opportunity to be the lead dog very often or for very long. The Sox were the lead dog in 2018. They’re returning everyone except for two very capable relief arms. The loss of those relief arms could kill the Sox in a year where a lot of key players are in contract years. I understand that signing Kimbrel makes it harder to re-sign JD and Xander, but I also understand that repeat champs hasn’t happened since the Yanks 3-peat. You’re likely staring at a vastly inferior team come 2020 anyway. DD has to seize the day and make his 2019 squad the juggernauts they were last year

The easiest plan if you HAD to jettison money is to move on from Bradley and allocate his $8+ mil predicted salary and then get a closer with that plus a little more. You can move Betts to CF, Beni to RF and JD to LF. That gets Pearce into all games and allows for the sox to potentially see Chavis by mid season to platoon with Moreland.

If we get Machado, then 1b will end up as either Voit/Bird or Andujar. So while it is a question-mark now, it is likely to end up a plus, especially compared to Moreland. SS will start off with Tulo, who I absolutely believe is a minus compared to Bogaerts. Once we get Didi back, we get back to even with you. Sabathia right now is a big question mark, I agree. Heck, the guy just had a stent put in his heart. Happ showed no signs of slowdown and was still throwing hard come season's end. His career renaissance has been great and may continue. If it doesn't, then he's a two year mistake.

It is entertainment and the players bring in far more than they will ever see, even the big contracts

That's garbage and you know it