jacksonianmarch

I’m aware that the Yanks need to make some decisions as the kids age out of being cheap. This is one of the reasons you’re seeing Cashman not create a cliff. Corbin for 6 years would have been the last four years of rookie control and the first two FA seasons of Judge and Sanchez. That’s how Cash must look at things now. You break that rule for a guy like Harper or Machado, but on the whole, you have to prepare for the future so as to not have a ton of guys to pay and no funds to pay them from. I do agree that the next CBA will be a war. Last year’s FA market was dead when the big spenders reset and I can imagine the players are out for blood after that. I think the commish will go for an INTL draft, which will really hinder teams at the back end of the draft, and then offset that with less harsh penalties for spending. I do wonder if the next CBA doesn’t have a lux tax, but has a draft penalty. That would keep the money from being pulled from the team’s and not going to the players but also penalize the larger markets.

Clay has always been a punching bag in Boston because the production never matched the potential. His attitude didn’t help. On the whole, he’s had a successful career and made a lot of money throwing a baseball. But when he came up, you saw Lester like talent and he just never lived up to it

But how long can you drop out of the first round and drop your draft pool? For reference, I don’t think the Yankees will ever go over the final threshold. The talent you lose and the flexibility to sign talent with the draft pool drop is a big penalty. I know $513K doesn’t sound like much and it isn’t to these corporations, but when it’s 10% of your draft pool, it does add up Now last year the Sox surpassed the threshold at the deadline knowing they’d be one of the final picks in the draft anyway. Let’s say the Sox surpass that final hurdle before the season and they have a WS hangover. Let’s say they are already over the final hurdle and end up at pick 20. The drop from 20-30 is almost $900K and after the 5% takes you up to $930K. That’s an immense amount to lose

I'm not dreaming. Now, we might deal away a bunch of guys and end up staying where we are, but the talent is there

The 10 slot penalty is definitely bad. I know they say everything beyond the first ten picks is a crap shoot, but it doesn't help your chances when you have ten more teams picking in front of you. The other thing you must consider is the slot value. The drop costs the sox $489.5K in value plus the 5% overage on that money brings it to a draft pool loss of $513K. That is 2018 value, as the 2019 value will make that number bigger. That's 10% of your draft budget. Also, in year's past, losing a guy like Kimbrel would get the sox a pick right after the top 30. That isn't the case. Because the sox were over the lux tax, the Kimbrel comp pick will be after the fourth round. So, let's say for a second that the sox were under the threshold in 2018. They'd have pick #30 and pick #33 (I am assuming Kimbrel is graded behind Harper and Corbin) and that would entail $4.6 mil in draft pool when accounting for the 5% overage on those two picks alone. Instead, they're gonna see picks 40 and 135 (using this year as an example) which would give them $2.3 mil. Being over the lux tax limit and then surpassing the final hurdle will cost the sox $2.3 mil in draft budget. That is an immense amount of money for anyone drafting. You need to consider this when the sox are surpassing that final hurdle. Are you willing to let 10 more players come off the board and see your draft pot drop by 10% every season while also paying immense financial penalties. The penalties get stiffer each year and the more past that final threshold that the sox need to go, the more they'll have to pay. For 2019, they will see a surcharge of 30% over $206 mil. As second time offenders, they would see a 75% surcharge for every penny over the final threshold and what amounts to 42% for the dollar amounts between $226-$246 mil. 2020 is when it hurts. 50% surcharge over the first bracket, 62% for the second surcharge ($20 mil over first hurdle) and 95% over the final hurdle. If the sox in 2020 are $50 mil over the first hurdle, they will pay $10 mil for the first surcharge, $12.5 mil for the second and a whopping $9.5 mil for the final $10 mil. That would be a $32 mil lux tax bill as third time offenders. Needless to say, I doubt the sox hit the final threshold in 2020 and if they do, they're gonna reset in 2021

Or it could be the lack of draft success. In 2015, the sox had the 7th pick in the draft. They turned it into Beni, which was great. But the only other picks that were reasonable were Lakins in the 6th round and Allen in the 8th. Allen is now in SD. The rest of that draft (granted, they lost their 2nd rounder due to the signing of Sandoval) was a wash. For a team picking that high, that's really bad. Their 2016 draft was led by Jay Groome, who has been all hype and absolutely no production or health. Chatham has kept some prospect stock, but relied on a ridiculous BABIP to have a good season in 2018 at a level where he was older than the competition. Anderson looks like he was a good 3rd rounder, but he's now in SF. Dalbec was the 4th rounder, and he's definitely an intriguing prospect, but scouting sites don't believe in him because of his ridiculously high K rates. Shawaryn was the 5th rounder and he's been steady albeit with unspectacular stuff. The 2016 draft doesn't have the big headliner right now with Groome being on the shelf, but it at least is the deepest draft for DD. The 2017 draft to this point looks like a complete bust. Houck was miserable until the second half of the season. He might end up being the saving grace of the draft as he has the biggest tools. Brannen couldn't hit in 2018. Netzer cannot hit. Thompson got shelled. Scherff lost velocity and had a pretty bad 2018. Schellenger barely took the mound. Esplin couldn't hit. The rest is a rag tag group of guys with little to no production leaving the entire draft sitting on the shoulders of Houck. DD's 2017 was epically bad. Clearly, DD's 2018 is too early to judge, but it didn't help that their top dog in that draft missed his debut season with a hand injury. When you're drafting as late as DD has from 2016-2018 and soon to be again in 2019, you cannot miss on an entire draft. The lost 2017 draft is really hurting the farm

Loaisiga and Abreu are the only top 100 guys on that above list, though. Acevedo hasn’t been healthy. Adams has a velo drop which didn’t recover til August. German wasn’t on my list as he’s spent the majority of 2018 in the majors. Frank German is the guy in the lower minors who just dominated and has power stuff

Absolutely, which is why I agree with the ranking. But all you need is 2 or 3 to reach the upper minors with command and all of a sudden you're a top 5 system again. Let me give you a list of pitchers to keep an eye on here. Loaisiga Schmidt Contreras Abreu Gil Medina D. Garcia Nelson Adams Sauer Acevedo Y. Gomez Stephan King Otto Then Whitlock Green Barrios F. Perez Myatt F. German R. Garcia Cortijo Yajure all of these guys can touch 95. Myatt, Medina, Gil, Abreu, Loaisiga, Schmidt, German, R. Garcia, Green, Otto, Acevedo, and Contreras can sit 95 or higher. And this is just the top 50 prospects. We go beyond this. 10 years ago, when I started prospect watching, you never saw guys at the end of the top 50 or left off with high velocity. Now, guys who didn't even make the top 80 are throwing cheese.

Not at all. Prospect rankings are almost always proximity based. Mayo even said so on one of his chats. He said the Yankees' farm is the deepest in terms of quality pitching prospects. He made reference to the vast amount of teenagers running up to the mound hitting 98mph. He noted is as being unprecedented. Then he ranked the system 18th. When asked about that, he said the thing the Yanks lack is proximity beyond the very top of their pitching depth and proximity of their position prospects beyond Florial. That is a valid point and enough to agree with the placement in the rankings. It also means as the kids noted above rise, so should the Yanks in the rankings

Every farm has guys who have talent. The question is, do you have a development group capable of nurturing that. I think you did with BC and TE. You don't with DD.

I am very aware of the Yankees farm and I am not the only one tooting this horn. Mayo from MLB and the others will also say the depth in the Yankee farm is incredible. It is just very young. We just have a long list of pitchers who throw absolute smoke or have deep arsenals at young ages. It is rather impressive. On the offensive side, we go Florial and then to short season guys. Some of those guys will debut in long season. Once they do, we will rocket up the rankings

That might be what is seemed like, but his WHIP was sub 1, his K rate was over 13 and he converted 42 of 47 opportunities. That's a top notch closer right there. There were only 10 closers with 30 or more saves in 2018. Of those, only 3 had a higher save percentage. Of the 30 closers with 10 or more saves, only 2 had a better BAA than Kimbrel. Kimbrel may have been wilder than usual in 2018, but nobody could hit him. He had a ridiculous .146 BAA. Only Chapman and Doolittle's were lower

Kimbrel was far from average. He was not top 3, but probably more in the 5-6 range in terms of closers.

Reliever WAR is absolutely awful in terms of determining worth. I know the stat heads (and I like to think I am one of them) consider every inning the same, but the ball player in me knows that not to be the case. Not every player can close. And closing is quite possibly one of the most important roles on a squad. How often can you take a lead after 8 and stamp it down into a W. Kimbrel was one of the best. Losing him is not going to be easy to replace, especially in a tough town like Boston. I find it interesting for fans of a team who have seen some pretty bad closers march through entirely dismiss the importance of the role. Your 4 titles had 4 different closers, 3 of which were established at the time of winning the title. The 4th was Uehara, who was an established reliever but ended up just becoming a god for one season during the luckiest season I have ever seen for a team. The moral of the story is, you can hope a guy steps up and closes well for you, but previous season established closers have been integral to championship runs for 3 of your 4 title teams

We will be top ten after 2019. I will stand by that and you can take that to the bank. The depth in the lower minors is insane and it will start to percolate into long season

I expect the sox to add to the pen. Clearly this offseason just started, so it isn't like we know the finished product. If this sox team is complete, then you're gonna blow a lot of leads

We have the deepest pitching farm in the league. This is out of Mayo's mouth. The problem is, our best pitching prospects beyond Abreu, Acevedo, Adams, and Loaisiga are below AA ball. We have the prospects for practically any deal, it just depends on how many we want to give up. I doubt Cash would be willing to do a 5 or 6 for 1 deal, so while we can make these moves, we aren't going to. We may use Andujar to get someone. We may use someone else. My bet is we re-sign Happ and let the kids grow. Next off-season, Bumgarner and Cole hit the open market and JMont should be entirely healthy. I wonder if we get a stopgap option or sign Happ for 2 seasons and move him after 1 to make room

And the Astros last year didn't lose anyone of value and added Cole, so clearly they remained the favorites. You've lost your closer and setup man and haven't replaced them. Once you replace them, then you can be favorites again. For now you've got a team with a top 5 offense and a top 5 rotation and a nothing pen.

It doesn't mean anything right now or at any time. WAR projections are notoriously inaccurate. That being said, pegging yourselves as favorites without a pen is not realistic, but assuming it wont be upgraded between now and opening day is also foolish.

He's gone above 6 WAR 3 of the last 4 seasons and just posted a .905OPS while playing SS along with 37HR and 107RBI. Every way you slice it, he is an elite talent

Lol. We didn’t go to 6 and $140 mil for a guy who’s had a serviceable career and timed his career year right. We didn’t give away Andujar for 2 years of Cole and he ended up being our most productive hitter. We just dealt our top prospect for Paxton which vastly improves our rotation. We still have one more slot to fill. We have a pitcher we need to move. We’ve got money overflowing the coffers and plenty of high end players still in the market. We’ve got plenty in the farm with which to deal from if we needed to find another starter that route. Right now, the market seems to be waiting for the Machado/Harper sweeps on the offensive side and on the pitching side, the best deals are now via trade or with guys of advanced age (Morton or Happ) and then there’s the Japan posting system with Kikuchi. The Yanks have the luxury of being picky right now.

Not sure you’re division favorites with Eovaldi right now. You’ve got no pen right now. But that doesn’t matter. You make a favorites prediction before the season, not before the winter meetings

This deal leaves no question that the Sox are all in for 2019.

I’d be fine with a vesting option based on IP for a third season. Make it something like 320IP or so. If we use him for 160IP for two seasons, chances are we’d want him back

Merloni was on point yesterday. He said going into the playoffs, the question was ERod or Eovaldi to start in the ALDS. It came down to matchup. If the A’s beat the Yanks, Eovaldi goes to the pen and his worth never skyrockets. The guy who finished the 2018 regular season in Boston averaged less than 5IP per appearance. Then he goes on a 4 week tear and is your best pitcher as a Swiss Army knife over that time. His timing was impeccable. But does the overall package warrant the contract?