jacksonianmarch

If we get Syndergaard, then our rotation will be the best in baseball.

You deal Andujar and take on Castro's contract, you get Thor and pitching nothing else in

Andujar for Thor is an appropriate one for one with minimal else going back. I would not include Andujar and Florial.

And then the hammer drops. Yankees are willing to move Andujar. His inclusion would entail two things. One, I think this brings back Castro on a salary dump to man 2B while Torres moves to SS until Didi is ready. Second, this paves the way for Machado to come to NY

Exactly. This season is the final year, IMO, of the sox being a top 4 MLB capable club. Attrition will hit after 2019 with JDM, Bogaerts, Sale, and Porcello all hitting the market while Price, Eovaldi and Pedroia are still under contract and the young guys start to rack up significant paydays. Maybe DD finds a way to prop it up for a year, but the house of cards will fall. So sox fans, enjoy the hell out of 2019.

He is absolutely counting on them. He is counting on them bringing something back in return in a deal. There is a good chance none sniff the sox big league team

He rebuilt the Tigers by sucking terribly, rebuilding his farm and they hit on one of their high picks in Verlander. Then he used money and deals to build as he showed he could do. He signed Pudge. Traded for Polanco by dealing off Urbina. Traded for Guillen with prospects. Drafted Granderson. Signed Ordonez. Traded for Bonderman by dealing off Jeff Weaver. Traded for Robertson by dealing prospects. Signed Kenny Rogers. Zumaya was a drafted guy by DD. Rodney was signed by the prior regime as an IFA. Jones was a FA signing. NOBODY has said DD cannot build a team. DD has proven he can make some good selections when given very high draft picks. Case in point Beckett and Verlander. He is adept at trading and usually wins when he trades. He also seems to fill needs with money. One thing he has never proven to be able to do is sustain a farm when he puts his team in a window. Like I said, he gave you a now 3 yr window with a title and 3 ALE titles while putting you in the position to be the favorite again in 2019. But what he has done to the farm is what everyone expected. It is a boneyard

The tough thing with Thor is the health as well. He's eclipsed 180IP once in his career. Granted, when he throws he is entirely dominant, but he has to make 30 starts to be worth the price.

Sooooo you're gonna pin your hopes on a guy who struggled for the first half of an A ball season and a couple other would be rookie relievers untested at high levels (aside from Lakins). Please do that, I beg of you

Here's the thing about Cashman, never believe what he says in the offseason or at the deadline. He has effectively said so in the past. When there are negotiations, he is as stone cold as they come. I know he is deflecting Harper, but it wouldn't surprise me if he swung back and got him. Nothing surprises me with him. The thing I do want to point out, though, is when there is smoke about Yankee moves not from Cashman, usually the deals are already done or close to it. This Mets thing is intriguing, because they have three guys who are clear upgrades in DeGrom, Wheeler and Thor. Wheeler comes with the least amount of control.

Sounds like the Yanks are pushing for the trade here and might be looking at Wheeler instead

Wait, so you thought he package Meh posed for Syndergaard was light yet you throw Swihart and Johnson plus one other guy and think that’s enough for him? Cmon now.

AAV is the only salary data needed for large market clubs. That being said, I expect to see some interesting machinations on that end in 2019, so much so that I think the new CBA will change that. You are already seeing it with Stanton. Stanton signed the 13 yr contract at an AAV of $25 mil. So $25 mil is what is on the books, even though the Yankees took on $295 mil over the final 10 years. With the Marlins kicking in $30 mil, the Yanks AAV is only $22 mil, which is actually pretty reasonable for someone with Stanton's talent. Based on what we are paying him, it should have been $26.5 mil. From a lux tax perspective, it helps us to keep him on that deal. I also expect teams to do what the sox did with JD Martinez. Front load a contract and offer an opt out. I expect this with Harper. I think Harper sees a contract in the 12 yr $360 mil range, but I expect him to see a much higher AAV over the first 3 seasons. Watch, he will sign a deal that is two deals in one. 3 yr $120 mil deal with an opt out followed by a 9 yr $240 mil deal if he chooses to stay. Harper will effectively see a $40 mil AAV and then opt out while having only a $30 mil AAV on the books. The back end is if he gets hurt or fades, which he shouldn't as he is so young

It took a massive losing spree to rebuild the Tigers. They reached the WS then fell off again before making the deal for Cabrera which boosted their franchise. You understand that DD's first two seasons in Detroit, they won a total of 10 less games than the sox did in the regular season last year. They won 98 games in two seasons. It's interesting because I remember the 06 WS and thought the Tigers were good from 06-15. But they sucked or were mediocre from 07-10 then finally had a 4 year run of sustained success. In his first 9 years of running the Tigers, they made the playoffs once. We seem to selectively remember the 4 year run where the Tigers were good, but DD was on the hot seat before 2011.

Your rotation has health question marks. Outside of maybe a question of who Eovaldi is now, you really don't have production question marks. If someone told me that Sale, Eovaldi and ERod would make 29 or more starts apiece, I would be wary of the Yanks chances of toppling them in the division.

Sox are in on KRob and Ottavino. As are the Dodgers and Yanks

The Yanks never entered as a wild card during their run and their run coincided with the addition of a wild card, so the two series AL playoff format still existed. The new playoff format makes winning your division very important. The changes financially with teams is the reason why teams don’t repeat nowadays

It was structured that way to leave less cash at the end when the Giants may look to deal him away. The AAV wouldn’t change, but less cash to be paid adds in mid market suitors as well

That's just a snarky way of being unwilling to continue the conversation, especially when you know I am right.

Or you can admit he’s a guy you get to go for it now and forgo the future

Team's FO personnel are arriving in Vegas now. The rumors will start swirling wildly tonight and get going in earnest tomorrow. Happy hunting everyone

DD left the Marlins in 2001. Moneyball came out in 2003. DD also built the 2003 Marlins at the behest of Huizenga by dealing off a world series caliber team. I doubt Henry is gonna ask for a fire sale any time soon. Look at the 2003 Marlins Pudge- not acquired by DD Derrek Lee- acquired by dealing off Kevin Brown Luis Castillo- signed by DD as an IFA in 1992 Alex Gonzalez- signed by DD as an IFA in 1994 Mike Lowell- acquired via trade as a minor leaguer with NYY Juan Pierre- not acquired by DD Juan Encarnacion-not acquired by DD Miguel Cabrera- signed by DD as an IFA in 1999 Carl Pavano- not acquired by DD Brad Penny- acquired via trade with ARI for Matt Mantei Dontrelle Willis- not acquired by DD Josh Beckett- drafted by DD Braden Looper- traded from StL to MIA for Edgar Renteria Now DD's hand prints are there for the 2003 Marlins. But they had the opportunity to draft Beckett 2nd overall because they blew it up the year before. He did nab Cabrera, who is on his way to the HOF. He got Looper, Derrek Lee, and Brad Penny in tear down moves. Pierre, Pudge, Pavano, Willis, and Encarnacion weren't acquired by DD. All of the guys acquired were well before the moneyball movement. The latest being Cabrera in 1999.

Here’s what I’m getting at. He’s done one helluva job on the big league level. He used a premade farm and traded them for elite talents and kept the right guys for the team going forward. His only warts are the way he neglects the farm. His drafts aren’t anything special. His IFA splashes usually come up dry and his development teams rarely develop any surprises that turn into good big league players. The last time DD created a farm, moneyball was 10 years away from happening. He has yet to prove that he can use analytics to find diamonds in the rough. But he has shown a complete willingness to deal the unknown off for the known. He’s learned not to trust the projection, but get the now. Why deal 3 prospects for a #2 or a good position player when you can deal 4 prospect and get an ace or an all star. Why spend $15 mil AAV on a second tier player when $25 mil gets an elite player. He’s got probably the strongest willingness to pay for something. He’s the rare guy not looking to make a steal. The only warts are his lack of ability to scout amateurs in the new post analytic era. This has left him with dead farm systems in Detroit and now in Boston. This is the harbinger of the cliff. Once you decimate your farm and show no propensity to replenish or develop, you will run out of talent for trades and money for signings

We are not naive at all about a cliff for us. If our prospect pipeline closes, we’re gonna run into trouble in 5 years when we have paid for Judge, Sanchez and Sevy and then need to shell out for Andujar and Torres. We need to develop position player replacements within 3 years or else we will run into the same problems. Same with pitching

I’m just looking at DD’s track record. His Tigers team was built by dealing off a farm system and using money. They created a window and couldn’t develop anyone in that time. The house of cards crashed when the farm could do nothing for him and the guys paid for got old. He’s an old school kind of guy. He hasn’t built a farm since his days in Florida. I’m not surprised at all that under his leadership, he’s decimated a farm and hasn’t added anything of value