also, I was debating the fact that his body was breaking down. It wasnt the ankle that was bothering him, it was the back I thought.
Also, I know I am right on the whole getting stronger bit. If you project an 18 month recovery time, you know that the first part is recovering from the trauma and healing. The second stage is getting stronger. The more you use it, the stronger it gets. Initially, the problem will fatigue rapidly (which wasnt the case this past season with Schilling as he was nearly at 7IP per start through the AS break) and gradually gain stamina (which again wasnt the case as he as only good for 6.1IP after the AS break.
My point is that if he was recovering from the surgery, he'd be escalating as the yr went on. If he was wearing down, then he would be declining. Looks like the wearing down camp wins stat wise.