Rumors have been flying around, and while I was away for a few days, I still kept my ear to the ground. The dbacks offered 3 B level prospects and the promise to eat the entire salary. The Yankees turned them down flat. The DBacks have a very deep prospect base, but are unwilling to part with one of their top 5 pitching prospects or one of their top five hitting prospects. Therefore, it wont get done.
As for another team in the race, SD is the frontrunner. Rumor has it, they want RJ at 10 mil a season, asking the yankees to eat 6 mil. But they are apparently willing to throw Scott Linebrink, Kevin Kouzmanoff, and a prospect for him. That package is being mulled, but Randy would have to waive his NT to go there, and that is not certain yet.
As for how this all started, a few weeks ago, Randy's brother died. Cashman called with his condolences and essentially, the call ended in a "I wouldnt mind being closer to home" bit out of Randy. It was not a trade demand, but enough to get the wheels turning. Cashman is trying to shed some payroll and get more flexible, but we'll see if this is all wheels spinning.
Overall, I hate the idea. Randy at his worst last season still at 200IP and won 17 games. As I pointed out, his peripherals were pretty good despite a poor ERA. This was attributed to his inability to avoid the big inning (OPSw/RISP and OPSw/runner one was 200+ points higher than at any point in his career). Therefore a pretty good WHIP and a good K and BB rate translated into a horrible ERA. You put his peripherals from last season against Schilling and you have nearly the same pitcher (more BB on RJs side and more hits on Schillings side). I do not expect him to improve per se, but I think his ability to avoid the big inning is something that his career dictates will return and hence his era will slide, possibly dramatically. Either way, when he returns, which should be by the middle of april at the latest, he will still be in line for a lot of wins and a lot of innings eaten. That is what the yankees need.
At the same time, last yr I was very hard on the red sox when they dealt a guy who ate innings for offense. Dealing RJ for Kouzmanoff may be real nice, and adding a piece to the pen like Linebrink can only help, but without some sort of contingency plan in the rotation, I hate the idea. We saw the red sox trim 6 to 5 and before you knew it only one was standing. While I think the yankees are in a different position altogether in depth, dealing from a position of depth in starting pitching is playing with fire. If the yankees keep RJ, they will have a rotation that looks like this.
1. Wang
2. Mussina
3. Pettitte
4. Johnson
5. Pavano
Igawa in AAA
Without RJ
1. Wang
2. Mussina
3. Pettitte
4. Pavano
5. Igawa
But we are in a different boat than the sox were. Karstens and Rasner both had good debuts in the Bronx last season, proving that at the very least they could be serviceable 5's and go deep into games. Hughes and Sanchez are in AAA and both have the label of MLB ready. Steven White was in the class of Karstens and Rasner and is likely major league ready as well with the caveat that he is likely no better than a 5. So the depth is there. But throwing away a 200IP 17 win machine like Johnson better get a little pitching depth in return. If the "prospect" from SD is a high level starting pitching prospect with no injury history, then I will sign on the deal right away. But if the prospect is another fielder or a reliever, I say no dice.