jacksonianmarch

interesting.

Maybe not. That is why it is so fun to predict my friends. The only thing better than predicting and jawing back and forth is actually watching the games, then jawing back and forth.

He hit .342 last season.

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/story/480895p-404709c.html looks like nobody has talked about the deal for a few days. Speculation is that the Yankees and Pirates may make this deal on their own as LaRoche may be on his way to Baltimore for Brian Roberts.

everyone in the lineup has a precedent. It isnt like everyone in the lineup is a second yr player. I am going off precedent here. From there, I take last yr's numbers and see which trends look to be career blips vs consistent average. That is where the variations come in.

I am actually putting everyone rather close to last yrs production.

Last season's lineup. Damon 80RBI Jeter 97RBI Abreu 107RBI (split time in Philly) Rodriguez 121RBI Giambi 113RBI with torn wrist ligament Matsui 29RBI while injured but averaged 110RBI in his first 3 seasons Posada 93RBI Cano 78RBI while missing 6 weeks those 8 right there had 718RBI last season. Factor in Matsui's injury (which cost him 81RBI compared to average), Bobby spending an entire yr in the lineup, Giambi's injury, and a likely ARod rebound (when the time is meaningless) then 815 is well within reach.

The Yankees had a .285 average last season while having Melky, Bernie, Guiel, et al in the lineup. Last season, the yankees had 4 guys over .300 in Jeter, Bobby, Cano, and Matsui. Considering their histories, ARod or Damon going over .300 is no shock. Obviously somebody will get hurt, obviously somebody will have a down yr. My prediction for down yr is Posada. And otherwise, I am predicting no career yrs among the group.

I am saying that Nixon in his prime is better than Drew. Right now, Drew is better than Nixon.

that is not what I am saying. I said Nixon in his prime is better than Drew. Sadly, Nixon is past his prime.

We have seen the predictions abounding out of the sox forum about predictions and how they are going to be. Well, the Yankees lineup is rather stable from last yr minus one piece and looks to be the best lineup in baseball by far. Here goes 1. Damon CF. Johnny was pretty banged up by the end of the season. He had a broken foot and a shoulder problem which caused him to slip a little after the AS break. One thing he showed last yr was very surprising power and an increase in his walk totals. But to a detriment, his contact went down as did his BA. Overall, he posted his 2nd highest OPS since he left KC. As far as a prediction, I think his power totals were a bit of a career yr for him and will likely drop. At the same time, I think his lower BA is something that will climb as well. His walk totals and K totals tells me that he became more patient in the lineup. I could see a .300 15HR 80RBI season out of Damon this season with 120 runs scored and an OPS in the similar .840-.850 range. He stole 25 bases last yr and there should be no reason why he doesnt eclipse 20 this season. 2. Jeter SS. The guy should have won the MVP last season. Stellar, stellar year, hitting over .340 and having 97RBI. I dont see him having another .340 season, but a .320 season is well within his grasp. He stole 34 bases last yr as well, which was a career high. For all of the great things he did last yr, his HR power was down a bit, while his SLG was up due to a plethora of doubles. Overall, the guy is a god. My prediction is that he goes .320 18HR 90RBI 120R 30SB and another GG that he doesnt deserve (although I dont buy the whole he is a poor fielder argument, I dont think he is better than Betancourt). 3. Abreu RF was obviously energized in his travel to NY. In just 209 ABs in NY, he hit .330 7HR 42RBI with a .419OBP and a .926OPS. While I do not expect him to hit .330 (something he has done over a full season just once in his career) you can expect this guy to surpass .300. Also, last season he hit 8HRs in 330ABs in Philly, then came to NY and enjoyed 7HR in 209ABs. In watching him, he loves the short right centerfield alley and should return to 20+ HR prowess. He stole 30 bases last yr as well, and should fit into Torre's like for the running game (although sometimes Torre runs at inopportune times). Overall, I see a dip in his BA from his NYY numbers, but an increase in his BB totals (he only walked 33 times in NY compared to a whopping 91 times in Philly). .300 25HR 110RBI 110R 130BB .430OBP .930OPS 30SB season is well within reach for Bobby. 4. ARod 3B. I dislike this guy as a person, but you know what they say, root for the uniform. This fake ass will likely rebound from a poor season like he did after his poor first season in the Bronx. He hasnt had back to back sub 40HR seasons since 97, and I dont think that will fly either. Overall, ARod running game dropped a bit, only stealing 15bases last yr, which I attribute to him getting a little heavier. It is kinda funny though, he has a bad yr and it is .290 35HR 121RBI, maybe our expectations of him are high, but whatever. I expect a meaningless MVP award sitting in his locker next season as well as throngs of fans wanting to cut his balls off when he doesnt get the game winning hits or even make contact in key spots. .310 45HR 135RBI 1.015OPS 10SB 120R and a BAw/RISP of .200. 5. Giambi DH. Last season was like the tale of two seasons for Giambroids. He was at a 1.026OPS at the AS break, but a wrist ligament tear sapped his power (either that or a lag in the supply of andro). At the time he was on pace for a career high in HR with well over 40, likely 48, but the injury hampered him (which was injured in the field by the way). The wrist is fixed, he should be healthy and should get more mileage out of being a full time DH rather than a s***** ass 1b. The average wont rise much, as he was at .260 while fully healthy, but his BB totals are insane and I expect the HR totals to rise. His RBI totals should rise with a full season of abreu hitting 2 spots above him. Overall. .260 45HR 120RBI 95R .440OBP 1.000OPS 6. Matsui LF This lineup is a bitch, aint it? Matsui came back from a pretty serious wrist injury to show no ill effects. As a matter of fact, he came back from injury and hit .412 in september. This guy is really good. Typically VERY durable (remember the streak that ended with that freak injury). He was on pace to essentially be his normal self last season when he was injured. He should easily hit .300 25HR 110RBI 100R .900OPS 7. Posada C Solid season out of Posada. Dont see it happening again. Last season, he hit .277 23HR 93RBI with an .866OPS. This after declining for 2 consecutive yrs. I dont see a drop below an .800OPS, but for a 35yr old catcher with tons of mileage, he will likely see some sort of dropoff. I'd say .265 20HR 80RBI with a .365OBP and a .810OPS. 8. Robinson Cano 2B. I love this kid. What a frickin hitter. He hit .342 with 41 doubles last season, while missing 6 weeks with a hammy injury. He just turned 24 and had a season like no yankee second baseman since Randolph. He never walks, but almost never K's either. He has shown impressive power to all fields and should improve on that aspect if he stays healthy. I think the average drops a bit, but he is starting to grow into his body a bit and the power should rise. .330 25HR 90RBI .900OPS 42 doubles. 9. Doug Mientkiewicz 1B. I really think this gets done. Minky will give the yankees solid defense at first, which is a high priority with 2 GB pitcher in the rotation. Prior to injury last season, he was hitting .283 with a .359OBP. Assuming he is healthy, he should be a little below that. I think he'll likely hit .275 with a .350OBP and 10HR, but play spectacular defense. So overall. Damon will drop his HR total, but raise the average. Jeter will drop the average and increase the HR total. Abreu will drop the average but increase the HR total in the new park. ARod will increase across the board to rebound, but still be gutless. Giambi will continue what he was pre AS break, pre injury. Matsui will be Matsui. Posada will have a decline in all fields. Cano will decrease AVG but hit for a little more power. Mientkiewicz will decline in all fields, except for defense.

I agree with you on that. Sox #5 hitters last yr .231 14HR 75RBI .321OBP and .683OPS

I think the sox are still trying to figure out if they are in a win now mode or in a win later mode. The cash being divied out would make it seem like win now, IMO and hence you should have a little better of an option than a rookie 2b who was terrible in his first glimps of MLB, when the pressure was off. With Schilling in his final season and Manny/Papi one yr older, how much longer can the machine keep running? If you give the job to pedroia it should be earned. Cause if he struggles to a .240 2HR 40RBI season "adjusting" to the bigs, then he will seriously hurt the team.

I agree with you 700. His best asset may be that he is a hard nosed player who takes average skills and makes himself an above average player. That isnt something that is quantifiable and due to that, he should have a shorter leash than most. Most players can rely on talent, he cannot.

it isnt something that is meant to be explained, just that it is true. There are tons of solid relievers who moved to the closers role and flat out sucked. And there are some closers who were moved to setup or MR positions and they flat out sucked as well. These are people here, not machines, they will all respond to pressure differently.

If I were a sox fan, I'd resign Loretta to a 1 yr deal. I'd send Pedroia to AAA and have Loretta at 2b in Boston. About a month in, I'd check on the kid. If he is lighting it up, then I'd bring him up at the beginning of the next roadtrip and see if he finds it. Give him 20 games, if he shows he can hang, then he earns the spot. If he struggles send him back down to get hot again.

I apologize for a mistake, but DelCarmen actually is rather accurate. 17BB in 53IP is not too bad. What is bad is that he gets battered to a tune of a .309 BAA.

the sox are always in first place early on. It isnt a season without the red sox in first on June 1st. I actually thnk that the sox have been in first place on June 1st every season since 1999. I heard that somewhere, not sure if it is substantiated.

I think MDC projects out to be more of a middle man than a closer. He walks way too many to close.