The two examples I provided show you what consensus and expert opinion lead you to. Mostly ignorance. Without actual evidence, actual measurements, actual data, the idea is just that. An unproven idea making people a LOT of money. That's the point. You can make assumptions, predictions, ideas, etc, but without evidence, it's all fluff. I won't get into a fight with you on this, since I don't expect you to understand. It took me a few yrs of medical school to get my mind wrapped around the idea since a lot of people are used to just being spoon-fed by people we assume are experts on stuff and believe everything at face value. This is the problem.
And, if these guys' probabilities of injury are so sky high, why do teams keep drafting them? Well, because of the last statements in that article. He could be Mark Prior or John Smoltz. Kinda big window there, right?