Cocos Disciples

NEW YORK YANKEES (71-45) [table]Dates|Opponent|Result|Record 8/12-8/14|v. TB|2-1|73-46 8/15-8/17|@ KC|2-1|75-47 8/18-8/21|@ MIN|3-1|78-48 8/23-8/25|v. OAK|2-1|80-49 8/26-8/29|@ BAL|4-1|84-50 8/30-9/1|@ BOS|1-2|85-52 9/2-9/4|v. TOR|2-1|87-53 9/5-9/7|v. BAL|2-1|89-54 9/9-9/11|@ LAA|1-2|90-56 9/12-9/14|@ SEA|2-1|92-57 9/16-9/18|@ TOR|1-2|93-59 9/19|v. MIN|1-0|94-59 9/20-9/22|v. TB|2-1|96-60 9/23-9/25|v. BOS|2-1|98-61 9/26-9/28|@ TB|2-1|100-62[/table] So I actually think the Yankees will also end up with 100 wins, the same total as the Red Sox. However, due to the Red Sox (projected) 13-5 record against the Yankees, the Red Sox will take the AL East and the Yankees will win the Wild Card. The Yankees have a slightly easier schedule than Boston in the stretch, so I think they'll go 29-17, as opposed to Boston's 28-18. This would mean New York plays slightly better than they have been, while Boston slightly worse. This is in line with their current pythag records.

BOSTON RED SOX (72-44) [table]Dates|Opponent|Result|Record 8/12-8/14|@ SEA|2-1|74-45 8/16-8/17|v. TB|2-1|76-46 8/18-8/21|@ KC|3-1|79-47 8/22-8/25|@ TEX|2-2|81-49 8/26-8/28|v. OAK|2-1|83-50 8/30-9/1|v. NYY|2-1|85-51 9/2-9/4|v. TEX|2-1|87-52 9/5-9/8|@ TOR|2-2|89-54 9/9-9/11|@ TB|2-1|91-55 9/13-9/14|v. TOR|1-1|92-56 9/15-9/18|v. TB|2-2|94-58 9/19-9/21|v. BAL|3-1|97-59 9/23-9/25|@ NYY|1-2|98-61 9/26-9/28|@ BAL|2-1|100-62[/table] So in my prediction, the Sox end up with their first 100-win season since 1946. This makes sense to me, as they're actually currently on pace for 101 wins. I certainly don't expect the season to go exactly like this. There will likely be a more drastic hot stretch and a more drastic cold stretch, but I think they'll even out to make this prediction make sense. I think it's pretty reasonable to think the Sox will win 100 games this season.

Back in the day, TheKilo would post educated and well-researched predictions for the remainder of the season. He doesn't post here anymore, but it's a good idea so I'm going to take a shot at it this year. I'll be doing this for the Sox and Yankees, going series-by-series and making predictions based on opponent, home/road splits, head-to-head results, etc. The past couple KiloMetrics have included Tampa Bay, but after a huge slide resulted in them 10 games behind the Sox, I think it's fairly safe to count them out. Essentially I am just trying to make an non-biased and educated guess at how the season will end up. Not surprisingly, the first four months of the season have been very close. After a rough April, the Sox have been the best team in baseball, playing at a 109-win pace after their 2-10 start. Their offense has been excellent, with a superb 1-2-3 of Ellsbury-Pedroia-Gonzalez, and their pitching has been good enough so far, especially with the emergence of some key bullpen arms. The addition of Erik Bedard should shore up the rotation, which has its share of question marks with the injury to Clay Buchholz. The Yankees have been steady for the whole year, and while they've spent most of 2011 in 2nd place, they haven't fallen more than 3 games behind the Sox all season. Their rotation had major question marks coming into the season, but the additions of Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia, along with the promotion of Ivan Nova, have answered most of those. In the bullpen, David Robertson has emerged as a reliable 8th inning solution, while Rafael Soriano has been perfect since returning from the DL. On the offensive side, Curtis Granderson has had a huge breakout season and has emerged as a star. I fully expect the AL East battle to go down to the final week, though the loser will still make the playoffs via the Wild Card. Now, let's try to determine which team will come out on top. Before I do this, here's some charts of things to consider: [table]Team|Home Record|Away Record|Home Games Left|Away Games Left|Remaining Opponent W% Boston|37-22|35-22|22|24|.501 New York|39-23|32-22|19|27|.489[/table] Both teams have essentially the same home-road splits. The Sox have an extra series at home, but their opponents are also slightly better for the final seven weeks. This mainly comes from the two series that the Sox play Texas, while the Yankees do not at all. Now let's check out the pythags: [table]Team|Runs Scored|Runs Allowed|Actual Record|Pythag Record|Difference Boston|631|487|72-44|71-45|+1 New York|622|450|71-45|75-41|-4[/table] So, the Sox basically have the record they should, while the Yankees perhaps should be a few games better. I imagine this comes from the blowouts that the Yankees have won in the past couple weeks (17-7, 17-3, 18-7), and their 15-16 record in one-run games. Anyway, the next two posts will be my predictions for the final 1 1/2 months of the season, series-by-series. Enjoy.

Hey dude, welcome. The Bay Area is awesome, I spent a week there earlier this year.

Missed this game as well, but saw some highlights. Nice to see McDonald and Varitek being useful. It's also really nice to be able to trust the back end of the bullpen, not to mention the middle of Aceves, Wheeler and Albers (not a great night for Albers, but a great year).

The f*** is going on with GT mojo during this streak? As MNSC102 said, Blackburn has sucked recently. Keep that going, and finish the sweep.

Woo yeah alright another win. I missed this game, but looks like it was a good one.

What a finish. 1st place again!

They better finish this off, I don't want to see McDonald come up in the 12th.

Good s*** from Bard. Hughes coming in for the 10th. End it now, I'm sleepy.

I like Aceves the most of all of those guys, and he can go a few innings.

Sox bullpen: Aceves, Williams, Miller Yanks bullpen: Hughes, Ayala, Noesi

90 feet away. Do it.

Can't believe this 2-1 game is nearing 4 hours.

Varitek you suck so much.

Varitek, you can redeem yourself here so hard.

Crawford is having quite the birthday series. He should be running here.

0 HR allowed for Robertson all year. He's due.

He won't. But Wheeler has been pretty awesome since coming back from the DL.

The Yankees bullpen is going to be dirty in the playoffs if Soriano keeps it up.

Morales is so lucky. 2-3-4 for the 7th, huge inning.

I don't care about the lefty-lefty matchup, Bard should be in right now. Morales is awful tonight.

f***ing 4th OF.

Crap, some serious squanders tonight.