Paradisecity

Sweet- do they have a page where they show what is behind this? I'd love to see it.

In a 3 year average, JD has fewer AB's than he reached this season, so I think you can throw that argument out the window.

I get your point Seano, but over the course of 162 games, these statistics do matter. We know management is building a team to make the playoffs every year, because we all know the playoffs are a crapshoot.

That is a good start rhet, but I mean specifically using probability, how many runs JD after JD would score per inning, per game, per season. I believe it is a more complicated method, but I could be wrong. What you say may be all there is to it. But i think it is along these lines: So out 0, he has a v percent change of making first base by hit, an x percent by other, a y percent chance of making second, z third, letter a percent chance of hitting a home run, and b percent chance of making an out Next at bat he has a v percent change of making first base by hit, x percent change of making first base via other, a y percent chance of making second, z third, letter a percent chance of hitting a home run, a c percent chance of hitting into a double play. Then apply percentage probabilities that runners advance to respective bases given each scenario, etc. This seems like a job for excel solver! Man, I wish I had paid more attention in that quant methods course. I think with enough gumption I could work this out, I just have a feeling that Bill James or Jed Hoyer already has...

I challenge an ambitious member of this forum to use probability and statistics (3 year average) to tell us how many runs per game a lineup of 9 JD Drews would score, and provide the formula. (I'm lazy, and its somewhat complex)

Nice of the refs to conveniently strip the pack of their end zone INT, letting the vikes stroll in for 6. Awful call

Ellsbury Reyes going 9-1 would be filthy.

I've never hardened to the Red Sox, but sometimes when I am they happen to be on in the background.

Kilo- that is a very good question. In my opinion, the Red Sox overvalued JD when they paid him 70 million. I think he is worth money similar to what the Dodgers paid for him- approximately 55 million. something over 50 and up to 60. The big question is would someone else be playing right field if Drew had been offered that much? The Red Sox made two major signings- Drew and Lugo, where there was no mention made as to other suitors or bidders even close to their numbers. I think we need more information in order to say we would have a different right fielder for 2-3M less per season. Personally, I think signing Drew at 5 and 60 gets it done, and keeps 2M on the books per season, not to mention looking better in the public eye. 5 at 57.5 sounds MUCH better for PR than 70, though monetarily it barely helps. Where could that 2M have helped in a contract negotiation? I have a player in mind. Kilo, you are no longer allowed to speak his name, but you'll remember I was in the same camp, beating the same drum, albeit with a smaller stick (story of my life). The argument against this extra cash getting us Tex is The Red Sox had their maximum value for Tex spelled out and it went over, so they wouldn't have overpaid even if they had that extra 2M per I tend to disagree, and think that money would have given us a switch hitting 1B who is a gold glove caliber and hits for power, making our lineup quite fearsome. In my opinion, the Red Sox did exactly for Drew what I am advocating they should have done for Tex, that is, overpay for the sake of getting the better player at the time they need them. The difference is, I think they did it in the wrong situation, and until someone provides something more factual along the lines of competition to sign Drew, I believe they did it against no other bidders. Was it bundling in order to bring Dice-K in as Mr. Crunchy often suggests? Perhaps, perhaps not. But I think the Red Sox set a precedent for overpaying for a player that is an upgrade over the market when they didn't need to, leaving them in a situation where they couldn't overpay for a bigger upgrade when they did need to.

I just don't think you can call a guy who gets paid 14M "undervalued" when they are a very good player. You bring up players who make close (and that's relative, because 3M per year would be a 27% pay hike. As an example, 3M per year is the difference in signing Johnny Damon back) and then say that Drew's contract was at a different time, but all of those players signed within a year of Drew's contract, during a market that was still favorable for players. I am not saying Drew is not a good addition to the team and I understand the role he plays. You are talking to a guy who repeatedly defended Mark Bellhorn to anyone who would listen when he was with us he because of his .817 OPS in 2004. Ask Mr. Crunchy. What I am saying is that when a fan assumes that his team is operating on a budget, and 10% of that budget is spent on one player, those fans are going to expect a LOT from that player. And they should. Is it fair? Maybe, maybe not. "Its not my money" goes the argument. And it isn't my money, but given that this team operates under a budget, its not my money, but it IS our money. I just think on this board, specifically, the JD Drew chest thumping is a little over the top. Could it be a testament to the intelligence on this board, recognizing that Joe Schmoe average fan shits on him too much? Yeah, probably. But at the same time the same people read this chest thumping over and over again, and for the most part, not many people disagree. It is like preaching "I told you so" to the choir. It is my opinion that J.D. Drew may be underrated in the media and by the average fan, but he is overrated on the talksox board.

J.D. Drew fans are like fans of Ron Paul. There is merit to their argument, but they never shut up about it and any disagreement otherwise invokes a wrath no man should ask for followed by carrying a label of intellectual inferiority. JD Drew fans = Mac users I have defended the signing of him in the past but the second coming of Jesus Christ the man is not.

Isn't getting your due getting paid? What else are "we" supposed to give him? Credit? The talksox seal of approval? The key to each of our respective cities? I'm confused here.

Negative

He will be if he pitches in the second playoff game for the Tigers this year. Regardless of whether or not he is as good as our #2 or the yanks, I would have to say that he is the Tigers definitive #2 starter, wouldn't you? In which case, this debate would be about whether or not the Tigers have a good enough #2 starter, rather than who will be their second starter.

With an 8 game lead in the wild card, it is time to start looking at more ambitious goals. Currently, we sit 5 games behind the yankees, 4 in the loss column. Before our series in NY, we have 4 against the Royals, while they have three with the Angels. With Grienke v Byrd as one of the matchups, a 4 game sweep seems somewhat unlikely. 3 out of 4, however, seems very do-able. The yanks, meanwhile, will be on the west coast with our favorite postseason team. With the pitching matchups being somewhat similar across the board, I would guess the yanks win 2, maybe 1. This would leave us with a good possibility of going into Yankee Stadium down 3.5-4.5. With that said, should we still be shooting for the division? Or should we be more concerned with taking it easy on our starters and the members of the pen who will be throwing a lot in October?

Their bats would need to show up big time. The yankees at home are a menace with all their lefties. A good day for pitcher on the other end is 5 runs allowed over 9. Its scary.

GOod to see another City fan aboard RHS. YEah we will be missing Tevez, Robinho, Ade, Santa Cruz isnt QUITE ready yet (but practicing again), so this isnt really a good squad for us. I am guessing we will see Bellamy and Petrov up top? I wouldn't be surprised to see Vlaid Weiss make an appearance. I can't wait to watch him in a couple years when he is a top 20 player

I think the yanks have the best shot to win. If the sox rotation is firing on all cylinders then its a crapshoot. Either way I dont see Anaheim or Detroit making it through 2 series.

since when do a middle reliever's ERA, or for that matter saves, matter when discussing the merits of that pitcher?

You already admitted to better AL lineups. The post was in reference to pitching. I pasted the entire blurb so that i wouldn't be cherrypicking. Would you like to speak to the chart representing the pitchers who have switched leagues? Would you like to explain how Alan Embree can have a job in the NL but not the AL?

Nobody comes to the AL and pitches better. They come to the AL because they are better. Sometimes they pan out, and sometimes they go back.