IMO he's such a smart pitcher that he will be successful as he loses velocity. All he has to do is stay healthy, and he will be the Mets #1. I think they made a good bet. If he was just a pure thrower, I would have backed off beleiving that he would not be effective as his velocity dropped. Pedro in the NL can pitch at 85mph and have a low 3 ERA and 7K per 9 inning ratio. I think the only way it will be bad for the Mets will be if his arm blows out in the first 3 years. I don't think that will happen, because Pedro has a whole bunch of doctors monitoring him and he is very aware of he is very highly attuned to the signals he gets from his arm. I think he makes it through the 4 years. I think he will average at least 15 wins over the 4 years. His k's/9 will drop and his Whip will go up, but on big occassions he will still be able to resemble the Pedro of old. If I am right about this, the Mets did the right thing and the Sox blew it even if he is not the Pedro from 98-2000. As for value, look at what Millwood is getting. That's all you need to know to realize that a healthy Pedro will be worth the $.