a700hitter

But he's at high risk of being a piece of s***, so he is not a low risk move.

It may be a low financial risk, but it is not a low performance risk. He is at a high risk of stinking. By going with Penny they have decided to not go with the FA option of a healthy reliable D. Lowe or other healthy pitchers through trades. It is not low risk. It is low cost. There is a huge difference. jason Johnson was supposedly low risk in 2006, but he helped blow up the rotation that year taking 7 starts and winning none.

Health is a huge issue. How will Lowell and Ortiz recover. How's JD's back? What about Beckett's tingling fingers, and will Dice K blow his best stuff at the WBC?

I don't like signing damaged goods. Inevitably, we wait all season for them to take a regular turn in the rotation. In the meantime, the FO is passing on more reliable starters, so this is not a low risk proposition.

...and now we start the parade of cripples. I guess Smoltz will be next with a mid-season signing of Schilling. They'll be luck to get 10 quality starts from all 3 combined.

Just reading this makes me gag and throw up in my mouth.

But he is the starting CF...right?

His ulnar nerve is out of place and it has been since he dislocated his elbow in senior year of High School. Unless you are an orthopedic specialist, you are not authorized to give him a clean bill of health. The fact is that his displaced ulnar nerve gets irritated throughout the season. That can't be a good thing.

Locking up Longoria was a smart move. He is one of those transformational players for a franchise. Kazmir is already experiencing arm problems. His velocity is way down, and he completely abandoned his slider (his out pitch). Price's contract will run out just as his Arbitration Eligibility will kick in, so I don't see what they have saved with him. With regard to Shields... only time will tell. Baldelli was locked up to a multi year contract. That didn't work out too well. For every two times it works well, there is usually one bust.

I agree 100% with your post, but the FO should read it and take it to heart, so they might refrain from the knee-jerk response that the Yankees are rich and have a new stadium when the Yankees sign a FA.

ANd the Red Sox will answer with.... Clay Bucholz?

I edited my post. Don't get caught up in hypothetical dollar amounts being thrown around on this forum. The bottom line is that Papelbon will not get 5 years because of his medical history unless it is steeply discounted, in which case, he'll play out his arbitration years and go FA.

For the FO to declare that Free Agency is not the way to go is short-sighted. Sometimes a player comes along who will transform a franchise. Manny was that type of player. He transformed he red Sox offense into a wrecking crew. The Sox had to blow away the market to get him, but he was worth it. He was a once in a generation type of hitting talent.

Just because there are no other closers worthy of investment doesn't mean that you offer Papelbon a 5 year $40- 45 million deal. He has a bad medical history.

Papelbon has a medical history that is not the greatest. He has a misplaced ulnar nerve that causes him to have a constant tingling in his hand. He has a loose shoulder joint that has popped out once already. Papelbon has a track record of getting fatigued at the end of the season. Other pitchers are more durable and are worth the risk of a long term investment.

But Youk isn't going to sign on the cheap... is he? IMO the Sox will not take a chance on Papelbon's shoulder for 6 years even at a reduced rate. The Sox extended Beckett and got one good year from him out of two so far. They underpaid for 1 year and overpaid for 2008. Let's see how he performs the rest of the way before we determine whether or not the Sox got value by the early extension.

I didn't say that you were overpaying for the life of the contract. They will be overpaying him for this season. He could get injured etc. I questioned whether the savings in the later years when balanced by overpaying in the earlier years is worth the fact that for most of these years the players are still in their formative years. Very few guys hit the ground running like Pedroia. Those who become immediate stars usually don't sign away their FA years. Extending Ellsbury wouldn't be such a great idea, because he may not fully develop for 2 or more years. Let's not use the freak case of Pedroia as the standard. They extended Nomar before he was Arb eligible and overpaid for the early years and had to endure years of inactivity due to injury in his early FA years, so nothing was saved. Would you extend Papelbon for 6 years to capture his first 2 years of FA? He could blow his arm out in year two and you'll have overpaid for the last 4 years. As a cost savings strategy, for each two players where it pays off, there might be another guy who goes bust. Where's the big cost savings?

How big of an advantage is it to extend the player before they reach FA status? You end up overpaying them in the earlier years when you would have had control over them. You really only get a bargain for 1 or tops 2 years when they would have been eligible for FA. I don't see the big advantage. I am in favor of poaching players developed by teams like the Marlins, Kansas City, etc.