a700hitter

In the group you have only 3 guys who could hold down a major league job for an entire season: Smoltz, Bailey and Carter and Smoltz will only pitch half the season if we are lucky. Bucholz was bust last season and should have been sent down much earlier. Bard has the stuff to stick, but if his command goes, he is a AA pitcher. Van Every and MacNulty would be very marginal major leaguers. That's a total of 7 players on a roster of 25. That's pretty thin.

I'm not a mathematician, but if there is a 50% chance that Penny is productive and starts 30+games, a 40% chance that Smoltz is productive and starts 20 + games, a 75% chance that Baldelli has an injury-free productive year, and 60% chance that Saito remains healthy and productive, what is the mathematical probability that all 4 will be healthy and productive? I don't think it is very great. In addition, the Red Sox medical staff can't seem to identify injuries during medical exams-- witness Kotay's back.

The Sox will be fortunate if one of the players they signed is healthy and productive in 2009. So far it is looking like Saito. It is very possible that for the $12 -15 million that they spent that they will get a productive year from a middle inning reliever. Smart spending?

I think Varitek has worked on his release behind the plate. He seems to be getting rid of the ball quicker. He's thrown out a couple of runners this past week. Last season it took him a month to throw out a couple of runners.

I'd rather he get cut from the team now than tosuffer through his starts for another season.

If Bucholz continues to spot his fastball well, I would prefer that he get the 5 spot in the rotation and that Wakefield be shipped to the bullpen. I just can't take watching him pitch. As for the knuckleballer Zink,he should never again see Fenway without buying a ticket.

I don't find it alarming either, but his ABs thus far have been very poor and very tentative. He's not ML ready as some thought before the season. Carter is ML ready. Two years ago Ellsbury was much more of a finished product. In fact, when Lowrie was just in A-Ball he was more of a polished hitter in ST camp.

Manny is a great player. What he and Ortiz did from 2003 to 2006, we are likely not to see from another Red Sox 3-4 combination in our lifetime. He was worth the price of admission, but now it's over.

Some observations about the last couple of games: Despite giving up some runs, Bucholz pitched well. In the first inning with the help of an error the Puerto Rican team loaded the bases. Bucholz went 3-0 on Beltran and then beat him on 3 consecutive fastballs-- up and in, down and in and up and away. Del Gado flew out to RF and he K'd Alex Rios on a change up. He threw the fastball for strikes and he was throwing hard. Daniel Bard pitched a 1-2-3 scoreless inning and threw a very high percentage of strikes, which is a very good sign. He threw very hard. The paper said that he was hitting 100. Carter is a major league ready hitter. He crushes everything hard even his singles. He hit a long HR on Thursday. Beckett was throwing hard and throwing strikes. His fastball was high in the zone about half the time, but the batters couldn't get the head of the bat to the ball. He looked good in his 3 innings. Saito threw hard again. He had very good velocity and he kept the ball low in the zone. He appears completely healthy. If he stays that way, he will be a very good pick up. Lars had two more very poor ABs. He hit one loud foul and the ball jumped off his bat, but he has continued to be tentative. I am sure that I will get heat about Lars, but he hasn't looked good this week. Bailey has had a bad week too. He has been fooled quite a bit, but he has been more aggressive than Lars and he has had a few solid hits.

I am familiar with the scouting reports about his patient approach. Right now, it seems to me that he is making adjustments to a different level of pitching. Those adjustments might be successful, but he is not there yet. Maybe it will take him a month or six month. Maybe he will not be able to make the necessary adjustments. Only time will tell. IMO, he's not major league ready right now.

Here is one of my posts from that ST thread. I likened Lester to a John Tudor type, but said that he needed time to develop. Being John Tudor is far from being a bust. This was typical of my other Lester posts that spring. Check the thread. http://www.talksox.com/forum/game-thread-forum/5554-official-2006-spring-training-game-thread-13.html#post124705 You are recalling my more critical posts after he had been called up. I was still not calling him a bust, but his command was atrocious and the bloom was falling off his prospect rose. I thought the Sox should consider moving him from untouchable and trading him. Several other posters were frustrated with him at that time and some were saying that my ST evaluation was spot on. The only reason I qualify my evaluations because of the limited amount of time that I can see these guy is because you can't judge heart, toughness and Baseball IQ unless you follow a player for an extended period. Evaluation of talent level and tools can be done in a short period, and I don't qualify my opinion in that regard. I think my track record in this regard has been pretty good.

Thanks. I'll be the first to admit when I am wrong, but it would be nice if others could remember accurately what I post and not forget when my evaluations have been correct.

I saw his first outing against Major Leaguers yesterday. He was poised although he said he was nervous. His command was good, and his stuff was good. Nice velocity. He did very well, but no one wil remember that I said that. I make no predictions about how fast he will progress, but he is a prospect to follow.

What lesson? In the another thread, I have summarized my record regarding spring evaluations. I think my record is pretty good. I am writing off Littleton. The kid is not going to make the team, and I don't think he will make any positive contribution if he stays i the organization. I am not writing off Ramirez. He throws very hard, but he got pounded yesterday, and that is all I reported. Should I have reported that he did well? I don't think he was happy about his performance. It was probably just a bad day. Hopefully I'll see him pitch again before I leave.

I didn't sell him down the river. I realize that in a ST game that a pitcher may just be working on 1 pitch in an outing and hitters will realize that and start slamming it. A spring outing is not a good indicator, because he might use a different pitch selection in the regular season. Yesterday, he threw almost exclusively fastballs and I noted that they got hammered. The hits were scoarched. That's not throwing him under the bus. I made no prediction about his regular season performance, so your accusation is completely wrong.

This kid is overmatched in ST. He's raw with the bat and he's not a good fielder.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view/2009_03_03_Not_smooth_sailing_for_Brad_Penny__J_D__Drew/ I think we will be seeing this type of news about Penny throughout the season. This is what you get when you sign damaged goods. Low risk high reward? ********. Low cost, small chance of success.