a700hitter

But don't they have to exceed the cap for the tax to apply? If they are over the cap in 2010, but the payroll falls under the cap in 2011 and 2012 due to contracts coming off the books, to what would the tax rate apply in 2011 and 2012?

Agreed. I eagerly await the hitting first baseman, but I don't think we are getting one. People are getting used to the notion of Casey Kotchman who I hear can scale 10 foot walls to catch flyballs. The FO will do some minor tinkering, but nothin major will happen between now ad April. If this team catches a bunch of breaks and everything goes right and the Yankee spring training bus rolls down an embankment, we are good enough to go all the way. More realistically, they'll be looking for a bat at the trading deadline and they might actually get one. However, he'll be more like an old Gante Bichette than Adrian Gonzalez.

At this point the numbers don't back you up. I'll leave the door open a crack for Kotchman because he is only 27, and he could surprise us, but I am not counting on it. As for Cameron, at age 37 there are no surprises, and his stick is a big, big downgrade.

Kotchman isn't as talented as Doug Mientkievicz. That's why I am negative about him.

Did you read this thread before you posted this link? At the start of the season, there wasn't a single Sox fan who posted negatively about the Sox upcoming 2007 chances in that thread--- not one. The Thread was started by Gom as a trolling attempt. Again, please knock it off with telling my what I think today and what you think I thought 3 years ago. I was very very happy that the Sox had been very aggressive in the off season. They did what needed to be done, and it was a welcome change from the 2004 and 2005 off seasons when they went on the cheap. I didn't think Pedroia needed to be anything but average for the Sox to be successful in 2007. My concern was that they had no backup plan if Pedroia blew up. My exact stated concern was that after building a team to win now (2007) and after spending all that money that they did not have a Plan B for second base in case the kid didn't pan out. If he was average, I thought they would be alright. Please stop telling people what they think and what they thought. We'll tell you what we think. Remember you thought Wily Mo Pena and Chris Duncan would be a good OF tandem that you thought had a realistic chance of combining for 55 HRs and 160 RBI.

The difference between the 2007 team and the 2010 team is that the 2007 team was expected to win if everyone just performed to their baseline. They were expected to win if Pedroia was merely average. At the start of the year, no one thought that they would need an insane year from Pedroia to win. Unfortunately, Lugo had a terrible year, Drew substantially underperformed and Schilling got injured. Three really bad things happened, but the team was so strong that it only needed Pedroia's surprise to keep it on top. The 2010 team needs everyone to perform to baseline and for there to be some breakout performances to beat the Yankees and go all the way. They will not be able to afford to have three players under perform or be injured for substantial portions of the season. The margin of error will be very small for this team, and in my experience, when a team needs everything to go right in order to succeed, that almost never happens.

In 2003 to 2005, the Red Sox had record setting offensive production. It might have been a surprise in 2003, but it wasn't in the subsequent years. The Sox clearly had the superior offenses during 2004-05 without the benefit of hindsight. In 2004, the FO also picked up one of the premier starters in the game-- Schilling to head the rotation with Pedro and Lowe. They also added one of the premier closers in Foulke. In 2007, the Sox added the most sought after pitcher of the off season to head a rotation with Beckett and Schilling (who did pitch a 1 hitter in 2007, before getting injured). Dice K wasn't just some import. They also added Drew whose talent has never been questioned. In 2004 and 2007, the FO made bold moves to improve those teams to compete with and beat the Yankees. The 2007 team went wire to wire. They didn't get there because of the emergence of Ellsbury late in the season. They were built to win, and they won with underperformances by Lugo and Drew that were balanced out by the unexpected emergence of Pedroia and Okajima. They were built to win. It was not a case of that team getting lucky. This year they made the big pitching acquisition, but they have clearly taken a step back offensively dropping further behind a Yankee team that had already become dominant offensively thanks to the addition of Mark Teixeira. This year's team is not built to win. Kotchman and Cameron are not going to get it done.

No one is addressing the issue of this Luxury Tax barrier that the Sox refuse to cross. It's not a major $ item, so I don't get it. Signing Holliday in conjunction with lackey would put the Sox in the elite class of the Yankees for 2010 and beyond, and they would still have the minor league crop coming to the majors in 2012-13. The reason why I use the Yankees when I discuss competitiveness is because they are the team to beat. They have earned that status. If Toronto had won the Championship last year, I would be talking about being competetive with Toronto. I don't know what Example means when he says that the goal is "to win as many of the 162 games as possible." Wouldn't Holliday help the team win more games? If the best team in the AL was projected to win 90-92 games, should the Red Sox build a team to win 105 games or 95. It seems that building a team to win 105 would be overkill from a cost perspective, but wouldn't that be in line with your stated goal of winning as many of the 162 games as possible. I disagree with that goal. I think a team should be built to compete with and beat the other quality teams in the Division and the league.

When last season ended, it was obvious that the Sox had some work to do to close the gap on the Yankees. We needed another starter, and at the very least we needed to keep our offense intact, but we were hoping to upgrade. Of course something needed to be done at SS. We got Scutaro, and that didn't make anyone turn back flips. We got Lackey and we did back flips an waited for the next shoe to drop. Now, Bay has gone. Holliday is almost gone, and it is becoming clear that the FO is seriously thinking of starting the season with Kotchman at first base and Cameron in LF. The combination represents a downgrade from the offense we finished with in 2009. We were all hot for San Diego's Gonzalez, but now it looks like that will not happen. The FO doesn't want to gut the farm system to get one guy. I understand the concern about the future. However, Holliday would not cost the future, just money, and he is damn good. We hear that the FO will not do a deal with Halladay because they will go over the Luxury cap. What is the penalty for that 40% or 100%? I'm not sure. In any event if they blow $10 million past the luxury cap of $170 million, it would cost an additional $4 million or $10 million. Would that bring financial ruin to the Sox? They threw away $10.5 million on bags of garbage like Penny and Smoltz last year. $10 million spread over a 6 year contract is not a lot. Next season, a lot of $ comes off the payroll and the cap shouldn't be a problem. Right now this team is very expensive and it is not competitive with the Yankees and the FO knows it. Everything would have to go right for the Sox and the Yanks would need a very bumpy road. What is the big deal about luxury tax for 1 year? The Red Sox completely disregard the informal cost guidelines for signing draft picks and they have prospered as a result. Why are they so firm about this luxury threshold?

Those who believe the propaganda never realize it was propaganda. Major league teams use the press all the time as a PR tool. Last year, the despicable Met FO was floating stories in the press at Thanksgiving that all but one of the luxury boxes were sold. The message was that tickets were going like hot cakes. Don't miss out. Well, that was total bull s***. They had several luxury boxes that went unsold throughout the season, and i know that for a fact. Of course the Red Sox FO is too principled to ever use the press to help their business.

They also thought signing Luis Castillo for 4 years and big bucks was stupidity without the benefit of hindsight.

I have many friends who are Mets fans. I go to a lot of their games. They were criticizing that deal before the team broke spring training last year. Perez is a well known head case. Met fans thought the deal was very stupid considering the pitchers who were available last off season.

How could the Mets ever give Ollie Perez 3yrs/$36 million.

They offered Bay a contract during the season and they offered him a contract during the off season. They went back to him at least once that has been documented to get him to make a decision before moving forward. That is why I conclude that Cameron was Plan B. If Bay was Plan B, they wouldn't have offered him 4 yrs/$60 million. Do you really want to argue the point that Cameron might not have been Plan B? He could have been Plan C or D, but give the FO some credit. He was not Plan A. Slow off season? There was no one more interesting to write about. No one on the roster had anything interesting happen this winter. Lots of the Sox hosted charity and community events. That would be newsworthy. This article which mentions his so-called "break out" 2007 season and how his progress was curtailed by a hit to the head was a pure puff piece. It was a "you'll be surprised how good he is" piece. There's a story in the article about him scaling a wall in the minors to catch a foul pop, and the article concludes with “I’m glad he’s on our team,” Claus said. “I can tell you that.” Yeah, I'd say it is a puff piece. Did the FO have a role in this article? I think they might have. The author Tomase doesn't have the track record of the other Boston beat writers. If he plays nice with the FO, maybe he gets a scoop or two. Maybe he gets some good access for interviews. Organizations like the Red Sox use the press. It's part of their job.

You are arguing on the periphery. I'd be happy if they got Beltre, even though I don't think very highly of him. That shows how little I regard Kotchman. Howver, the Red Sox off season is over with regard to major acquisitions. Unless Beltre has no market and the Sox can get him for a song, he will not be signed by the Sox. The Sox offense will experience a marked fall off from 2009.

Then they'll have to be prepared to DFA him and get nothing in return. Beltre would be a defensive upgrade, but I am not convinced that he would be even a marginal offensive upgrade.