On that list is also VMArt, so in addition to replacing Ortiz, Beltre, Bay/Manny, and Beckett we will have to replace or re-sign VMart too. Those are many major pieces even if you disregard the need for our current #1 starter. The 2011 class does not look like a bumper crop. Other than Pujols and Mauer, there aren't a lot of top guys. Pujols and Mauer are pipe dreams for the Sox. The only other big offensive talent that I see on the list is Carl Crawford. There will be lots of significant holes after 2010, and I don't see them getting filled through free agency. If they fill 2 of these 4 holes through Free Agency, how will they fill the other holes? Kalish, Westmoreland or Andersoon will step into the 2011 lineup and replace Ortiz', Manny's or Bay's production? I don't think so. Do you think two or more rookies will step up and be major contributors? When has that happened since Lynn and Rice took the town by storm 35 years ago? In 2007, Ellsbury was a role player who still had rookie status at the end of 2007. Teams that fill 2 or more positions in a single year with full time rookies are usually not Playoff contenders. The Yankees sealed their 2008 fate by starting the season with 2 untested rookies in their starting rotation. It's nice to produce players from the farm, but it takes time, and it is extremely rare that 2 can step in to be major contributors in the same season to replace departed stars.
I live in NY, and I know many many Yankee fans, and each and every one with whom I have discussed the upcoming season has expressed what the Yankee fans on TalkSox have expressed. They are not concerned about the Red Sox lineup. Without Manny or Bay, the fear factor is gone. They acknowledge that the acquisition of Lackey was good, but they know that pitchers have a tendency to get injured and they don't think we will have a consistently productive offense. In short, they expect to bury us in 2010. That had not been the case in the last few years. Their cockiness has returned, and it pisses me off, because I can see their point. Lackey and Holliday would have been much better than Lackey, Cameron and Beltre.