a700hitter

This is The "Unofficial Pre- Hot Stove (2010)" thread. This is the place to discuss how to make the team better for 2011. My point is that just getting everybody healthy is not the off season answer. The bullpen is broke and there is other work to do. This is what I have been saying since this thread started. I realize that this Hot Stove Thread started innordinately early-- August 5th, and maybe that has caused some confusion. I'd like to discuss how to make the 2011 Sox better. My approach to that is to first find out what is broke. Too many posters waste their efforts on trying to prove me wrong rather than discussing possible needs for the team. If you want to blame or not blame the FO for the atrocious 2010 bullpen, that's your personal choice, but it is not the issue for discussion. However, the stinkiness of the bullpen was not some July surprise or revelation. Their unreliability was evident in April. The fact is that it stunk and it contributed to many losses.

Capps, Dotel, Farnsworth, and Ohman were also traded. Brian Fuentes was available, but he got moved after july 31st. More pitchers such as Aardsma were rumored to be availble. All would have been an improvement over the garbage we have had in the pen. I agree that the injuries are the principal reason, but it was not the only issue this team had. As you pointed out, if they were healthy and contending, the sucky pen could have still prevented them from making the playoffs.

and this means?

I have heard two explanations defending the FO for its inaction at the trading deadline: 1. They didn't make any moves because they were counting on the healthy returns of Pedroia, Ellsbury, VMart and Beckett in the second half, and that was better than any possible acquisitions. The problem with this argument is that none of those guys addressed the bull pen problem. 2. The FO "knew they were going to be without two of their best three position players for the rest of the year. Can't fault them for not wanting to give up any assets for that." Quoted from your post. Well, which is it? One thing that both explanations have in common is that they excuse the inaction of the FO. Curiously, these explanations seem almost diametrically opposed to each other. We really started hearing explanation #2 after the reasoning in #1 didn't pan out. BTW, #2 is based on a false premise. Youkilis did not go on the DL until after the trading deadline had passed, and Pedroia was expected to recover and resume playing. I find it amusing that people look for excuses for the FO. This is big business and they are grown ups. Hopefully, they are critically analyzing their own performance more so than we are doing here. That is what good businesses do.

I'll give you alternatives. Take your pick of any of the relievers that were traded to contenders at or before the trading deaadline. There were numerous.Pick up any two of thos guys and the pen would have been upgraded.

Here are just a few posts that I made in early season game threads. When I can do a search, I'm sure I can find more posts criticizing the pen in the early part of the season. I wasn't the only one to make these types of observations. The problems with our pen were evident early on. http://www.talksox.com/forum/535640-post46.html http://www.talksox.com/forum/536397-post82.html http://www.talksox.com/forum/539834-post66.html http://www.talksox.com/forum/541235-post132.html

There was a lot of concern during Spring Training about Delcarmen's dip in velocity. The concern was that he wasn't healthy. Even though he performed well during the early going, he never regained his velocity. This was a guy who had been throwing 95-97 in past years. He was about 4 ticks short of that on his best day this season. With regard to Ramon Ramirez, there was a problem with him right out of the gate. We had one lefty out of the pen- Oki who was not looking good, and Schoenweiss is so bad that the Mets cast him off. http://www.masslive.com/sports/index.ssf/2010/03/manny_delcarmen_working_throug.html http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2010/03/orioles-red_sox.html

We have stunk against the Orioles all season long.

In the past 20 years including 2010, a team with a bullpen in the bottom 3 in the AL went to the playoffs only 2 times-- 2003 and 2005. Both times it was the Red Sox. In those years, the offense was first in runs scoring over 900 runs in each of those seasons. IMO, making the playoffs with this bullpen was not going to be easy even if the Sox stayed healthy.

How come no one wanted the Sox to pursue Wood during this season?

I never said that. I'd part with anyone to make the team better. Have you seen the bag of suck that we run out there that is not named Papelbon and Bard? I look and see 5 open spots in next years bullpen. If Papelbon is traded, the FO will have to fill 6 spots. That's a very tall order to replace your entire bullpen except for the closer. I'd keep him for one more season and let him go all out in his walk year. Maybe he bounces back. Also, I don't think the Sox can get a lot of value for him in a trade after this season.

Don't both sides submit figures? And since you can't get a cut in pay, don't both sides submit figures that incude raises? What criteria does the arbitrator look to in making a determination if not FMV?

But you disagree that if we had the Yankees bullpen this season that we would be fighting for a playoff berth?

I agree with this, so I don't see how YS thinks we can get Soriano plus 2 quality arms for the price of Paps plus 1 quality arm.

The arbitrator will give the decision to the party that is closer to market value. He doesn't just pull it out of his ass.

I don't think that we can get Soriano and two quality arms for the price of Papelbon and one quality arm. I just don't see that as a possibility. I also don't see the Sox signing a big money reliever who would delay Bard from moving into the closer's role.

The arbitrator will not rule in his favor if his submitted figure is above market value and the Red Sox figure reflects market value.

Thanks. Great link. Very revealing that only 2 teams (KC and the Orioles) had pens with worse ERA's than the Red Sox 2010. There is no sugar-coating that. One team (the O's) has a .404 winning % and the other (KC) is fighting for last place in the central with a .413 winning %. The Indian and the Mariners have better pens.

What was the percentage of converted save opportunities?

What were the stats for the Yanks and the Rays? Also, how many blown saves have each of the 3 teams had?