He has no career norms. He is just starting out. E1, for a guy who preaches patience about prospects and letting them develop, I am surprised that you are touting his first 400 plate appearance as indicative of his ceiling and that you are so willing to throw him under the bus on that basis. Most players first 400 PAs are not very good. They are just learning.
I am also struck by the inconsistent and contradictory stance taken by many with regard to closers. I am not aiming this at you. I don't recall your stance on this. When the Sox let Papelbon (future Red Sox Hall of Famer) walk for FA money, people said that other than Mo, there are no special closers. Basically, people argued that they were highly fungible. When Cherries got Bailey, they sung his praises despite his injury problems and the fact that he only pitched 1 maybe 2 complete seasons. Cherries was lauded for pulling off such a trade. Now, Reddick is the A's number 3 hitter in the lineup with 13 jacks and Bailey, the injury prone fungible closer is on the DL. Let's call a spade a spade.