I am not at all saying that the bullpen is a bigger problem than the starting pitching. I have thought the starting pitching would be a problem from Spring Training, when people were convincing themselves that 2 rookies in the rotation would not be a problem, because Buchholz would pitch the entire season, Lester would bounce back from an off season and we have Beckett too. Some people even thought that Dice K was a good depth option. So, I am clearly not pointing at the bullpen more than the starters.
The reason for my posts about the late inning bullpen is to counter the commonly accepted belief that our bullpen is doing just fine, better than expected and some people think it has been great. They come to this conclusion on the basis of the ERA. The bullpen is not great. You pay the pen to handle the late innings, and it has done a lousy job in innings 7 thru 9-- one of the worst in the league. Last year it was the best. The commonly accepted belief is just flat out wrong. You are all hung up on this 5 game thing. Who knows how many games better off we would be if we still had Aceves, Bard and Papelbon in our pen. We could argue about it all day. Our late inning bullpen in 2009-2011 covered for many deficiencies in our starting staff those years. We don't know precisely how much of our record is attributable to the starters as compared to the relievers. It is clear that neither has done their job well at all. A Papelbon in our pen would have helped without question-- maybe not 5 games over the first half, but maybe so. Over the course of the season, at this rate, it will easily be a 5 game difference.