ORS

My picks are for recognition only. Spread Picks : Date & Time....... Favorite........... Line.............. Underdog 12/24 1:00 ET...... At Cincinnati......... -14............... Buffalo 12/24 1:00 ET...... Pittsburgh............. -7............... At Cleveland 12/24 1:00 ET...... At Kansas City....... -1.5............. San Diego 12/24 1:00 ET...... At Miami............... -5.5............ Tennessee 12/24 1:00 ET...... Jacksonville ...........-6............... At Houston 12/24 1:00 ET...... At New Orleans..... -3................ Detroit 12/24 1:00 ET...... At Carolina........... -5................ Dallas 12/24 1:00 ET...... At Washington...... -3................ NY Giants 12/24 1:00 ET...... At Tampa Bay....... -3................ Atlanta 12/24 1:00 ET...... At St. Louis........... -9................ San Francisco 12/24 4:05 ET...... At Arizona............ -1................ Philadelphia 12/24 4:15 ET...... At Seattle..............-7.5............. Indianapolis 12/24 4:15 ET...... At Denver............ -13............... Oakland 12/25 5:00 ET...... Chicago................. -6.5............ At Green Bay 12/25 8:35 ET...... At Baltimore.......... -2.5............. Minnesota Monday Night Football Line 12/26 9:05 ET...... New England......... -5................ At NY Jets Straight Picks : Date & Time....... Favorite.............................. Underdog 12/24 1:00 ET...... At Cincinnati............................ Buffalo 12/24 1:00 ET...... Pittsburgh............................... At Cleveland 12/24 1:00 ET...... At Kansas City......................... San Diego 12/24 1:00 ET...... At Miami................................. Tennessee 12/24 1:00 ET...... Jacksonville ............................ At Houston 12/24 1:00 ET...... At New Orleans........................ Detroit 12/24 1:00 ET...... At Carolina.............................. Dallas 12/24 1:00 ET...... At Washington......................... NY Giants 12/24 1:00 ET...... At Tampa Bay.......................... Atlanta 12/24 1:00 ET...... At St. Louis.............................. San Francisco 12/24 4:05 ET...... At Arizona................................ Philadelphia 12/24 4:15 ET...... At Seattle................................. Indianapolis 12/24 4:15 ET...... At Denver................................. Oakland 12/25 5:00 ET...... Chicago.................................... At Green Bay 12/25 8:35 ET...... At Baltimore.............................. Minnesota Monday Night Football Line 12/26 9:05 ET...... New England............................ At NY Jets EDIT: Seattle/Indy pick changed - 12/24/05 10:39AM

Maybe washed up was a bit of an exaggeration on my part, but my point remains the same. If a restructure is happening, then they should go after a piece of the post-2006 puzzle.

Jones is FA after 2007. hardballdollars.com

Gotcha, and I agree, no more holes in the lineup.

Snow is the last thing this team needs. Most of the moves this offseason have been about restructuring for the future. If that is what's going on, then give me the young guy with potential instead of the washed up has been.

True, but the Wells trade-me-or-I-retire threat should be respected. If it can add another young corner IF with power potential to the post-2006 picture, then where do I sign up?

I'd rather package someone that would entice them to deal Adrian Gonzalez to us. It just depends on what it would take to get the deal done.

JC05 is on my radar, as some of his trade ideas are pure fantasy, so I usually check it out when one of his posts is the latest on the main forum page.

At hardballdollars.com, money already on the books for 2006 (not including Minor Leaguers and arbitration awards) for players on the 40-man of those respective teams are, $187.62M for the Yanks, $102.75M for the Mets, and $97.50M for the Sox.

That makes much more sense than your earlier post. If you had demonstrated this level of coherence to begin with, I wouldn't have to use my head.

On what planet do 43 year-old pitchers, who have said they are only playing one more year, land two young, good prospect type players?

No dropoff from a 2.85 ERA suggests you expect a very good AL-East pitcher, as league average was 4.45.

Not BABIP and BB/9. Those stats aren't very park dependent.

I'm not suggesting that he won't be a serviceable back-of-the-rotation starter. I just think it is silly to suggest that this guy is going to be a very good AL-East pitcher, as 26Reasonstoeatasteamingpileofdogshit has done.

I've checked Hardballdollars.com and MLB4U.com, and both have A. Jones signed through the end of the 2007 season.

Here's what should concern Yankee fans about Chacon. In the second half of last year he dropped from a .280 BABIP in Colorado, about his career average, to a .240 BABIP in NY. BABIP is the pitcher's stat has the highest fluctuations from year to year and studies have shown that even some of the best pitchers in the game have little control over it, even in the prime of their careers. It is possible that he can limit hitters to a .240 average on balls in play, but it is unlikely when you consider his previous seasons have been .270, .260, .310, .280 (rounded numbers). Making matters worse, he went from walking 4.46 per 9, to 3.42 per 9. He has fluctuated around 4 BB/9 his whole career, but for every season of improvement, he followed it with a season of decline. His career average is 4.6 BB/9. It's possible for him to keep it around 3-ish, but the trend of his career gives me no reason to expect it.

MLB4U.com and Hardballdollars.com both have Andruw signed through the end of the 2007 season. The Braves are trying to save some coin, but I think they'll be expecting a king's ransom in prospects and young, cheap talent to acquire him for his last contract year.

Every one of those $13M is over the Cap, and as repeat offenders, the Yankees tax rate is 40%. So, it's really $18.2M per. Yes, they have the budget for it, but it is still overspending.

This further proves my point. Bernie's 7 year deal was for years 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36. Damon's is for years 32, 33, 34, 35. Bernie was good the first 4 years, but declined big time in year 5. BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS just fell off the table, as did FRAR. With Damon's contract, they are getting (probably?) 2 years instead of 4 before the decline begins. That is a big risk at $13M per.

I applaud the FO for sticking by their guns and not going as high as $13M per AAV. That is crazy money for Damon's skill set and strong chance of rapid decline due to age. I guess Bernie Williams didn't teach the Yankee's FO much the last two years. That said, they have, without a doubt, the most imposing lineup going into the season. Going by last year's stats, they have all 8 position players capable of producing over 30 VORP. By comparison, the best offense in the game last year, the Red Sox, had 5 produce over 30 VORP, and two of them are gone (Mueller, Damon). This improves the Yanks in '06, but is really good for the Sox in '07 and beyond. They now have 2-1st round picks, 2-sandwich picks, and an extra 3rd round pick going into June's amatuer draft. This will widen the gap between the two farm systems. Plus, if the Reed deal goes down, they have a lot of salary freed up for a much stronger FA class at the end of the next year. I can stomach a year of them positioning the team to build a powerhouse post-2006.

Huckaby on a MiLB contract means he's most likely injury/suckitude insurance. Shopp has drastically out-performed Huckaby at every level in the minors, the job should be his regardless of what happens in Ft. Myers. On the thread topic, keeping Graff at ~$2M is a no-brainer. He's a cheap option as a super-sub that can play, in a pinch, just about every non-battery position. However, he could be some extra incentive to get a deal done to fill a bigger need (CF, SS). Whether he goes or stays could go either way. Right now, I'm in favor of keeping him, but trading him to address a more pressing need won't have me crying in my cornflakes the next morning.

Yeah, I did pull a Captain Obvious there. My point was less about how a Wells trade will affect the staff, and more about how Bradford isn't good enough to take one of the 11 spots away from the people currently filling them. I should have just omitted the Wells reference.

Letting Bradford go isn't too shocking to me. Foulke (when healthy), Timlin, Mota, and Saenz are all better. DiNardo is the only lefty option. And, once Wells is traded, either Arroyo or Papelbon will have to be in the BP. That's 6 arms in the 'pen, plus 5 starters, making an 11 man pitching staff. They already have a few young options that they will want to bring up if anyone is either injured or not performing (Hansen, MDC, Meredith?, Alvarez?). There just isn't enough roster space to justify carrying an OOGY with the arms already there.

The Halos need to hang on to OC at least one more year. Erick Aybar, only 21, hasn't cracked AAA yet, so he won't be ready for a full-time gig until at least 2007. Maicier Izturis has similar OBP skills to Cabrera, but that isn't a big concern for the Angels. Their approach to the game values contact more, and OC is better than Izturis there. Plus OC will hit for more power.

Nomar's standing soured with some after his attitude post-ARod trade attempt. Mueller is universally respected by RSN. I haven't seen or heard a single negative thing about him from a Sox fan. I'm fairly confident in predicting that he will receive more of a hero's welcome if the Dodgers come to Fenway. EDIT: I suppose it depends on who is in the stands that day, as there are some who blame the team for Nomar's attitude. That said, Mueller's respect from the fans isn't just about what he did on the field. It is about the type of person he is, his work ethic, his humility, and the fact that he plays the game just like he probably did as a little-leauger, running hard out of the box on contact, charging the balls hit his direction, running the bases with his eyes on the base coaches, and having a genuine surprised look on his face when he hit one hard enough to send it out of the park.