ORS

I would think he is, but they still can spare one if they haven't given up on Freddy Guzman yet. Wells for Roberts is starting to make a lot of sense right now. Roberts has one year left under contract, which is a perfect stop-gap. This allows Ellsbury to develop another year, or the FO the chance to get to next year's FA market, depending on how they plan approach CF after this year. Initial reports were that the Sox wanted more than Roberts in return for Wells, but at this point, something needs to be done, because Stern should not be starting in the OF.

Are you kidding me? It's only been 7 years, we aren't talking about a different era. Besides, Sanders was never the fastest player on the field, he just didn't need to slow down to change direction.

Texas is the first team they will face this year that has good enough athletes in the secondary to play on an island, allowing them to go with 7 or 8 in the box to try and stop Bush or pressure Leinart, and what's his name, the Horn's D-Coordinator (Auburn's from last year), is aggressive. That said, I still think both teams crack 30 in a close game.

Yeah, Wednesday night should be fun. Young had a very solid game against this Buckeye defense. Passing 18/29 270 2/2 (IIRC, one was tipped then picked) Rushing 20 for 76 If ND was able to put up 400+ yards and 30+ points against USC, but has been limited to 150 and 7 in the first half, then you have think Texas won't have too much trouble putting points on the board against USC. Especially since teams have been successful running on the Trojans this year, and Texas moves the ball on the ground very well.

And everyone got all the wiser, which is why nobody has offered that much since, even when more hyped players have come and gone. Should the Texans shop the spot around? Absolutely. But given teams reluctance to be on the losing end of the next Vikings/Cowboys-type trade episode, I don't think he'll land any king's ransom in picks. What would I take, if I'm the Texan's GM? Nothing short of 3-first round picks, 2 is typical (same year pick, next year pick), and Bush isn't your typical talent.

Did you watch Sanders in college? I did. Bush is the only back I've seen since him to have a similar combination of ellusiveness, quickness, speed, and power. No, I don't think he is as good as Barry (344 att. 2600+ yds 39 TD - in '88, that's sick!), but he does remind me of him. He scores from all over the field, even when the run block has broken down. He turns should have been losses into scores. As far as that OK State team goes, they didn't have much of a defense, but they racked up the points, and it wasn't just Barry Sanders. Hart Lee Dykes, the all-time leading receiver for OK State and first round pick of the Patriots in the 1989 draft, was a very good college receiver and deep threat. They had a good O-Line, and were a top-20 team that year, finishing #12 in the polls. Their only two losses were to higher ranked Nebraska and Oklahoma, perenial Big-8 powerhouses in the '80s.

Turned out the Chargers didn't need Phillip Rivers either, so there goes a wasted pick because they most likely won't get a first rounder in return. Yes, that trade has worked out for both teams. But, Reggie Bush is substantially better than Eli was coming out of college. I just don't see the logic in passing on this kind of talent.

And the Giants are hosting a playoff game this week while the Chargers are watching on TV.

The Sanders comparisons, at least in terms of being able to run w/o a great line, are more than fair IMO. Bush is the only player I've seen coming out of college in the last 16 years (Barry came out after '89, right?) that reminds me of him. A back with that kind of ellusiveness can run w/o a line. ARod2212 is right. Regardless of the Davis situation, you can't pass up an opportunity to take a player that has his potential to impact the game.

I doubt it as well. Now, don't take this the wrong way, I'm merely going to answer your question. I've heard it mentioned that Manny wants the 2009 and 2010 options on his contract picked up by the team he is traded to.

Rule 5 draft.

Agreed. Duke is good, but he's a finesse pitcher, so he won't be able to completely dominate an opponent like Felix will.

Just because I didn't quote your entire post, it doesn't mean I didn't read it. My point only pertained to the part I quoted, which is why I truncated your post for clarity. I think an international player's career, in terms of discussing MLB (the highest level of competition) ability, begins when that player starts playing games for an MLB team. Since your post said, "..throughout his career he's been MUCH better offensively. But since coming to America....", you think consideration of performance overseas is warranted in the discussion. I don't.

You have to be one of the most thin-skinned people I've ever encountered. I posted my opinion. No excitement, nothing confrontational. If anyone needs to lighten up, it's you.

I don't care what he did AAAA-Japan, his career, as it pertains to comparing MLB players, began when he first donned the Mets uniform.

Huff interests me only if Manny is traded. Trot needs a RH platoon mate, so he's no good for that, and there are already enough corner IFs on the roster. I'd be willing to part with Shopp + lesser pitching prospect to get him, but only if he's the everyday LF. Otherwise, I think they ought to hold on to Shoppach.

For those of you who still think the Sox are falling apart. From Baseball Prospectus:

Not true. Cora had a 1.7 VORP in 116 PA last year. Multiply that by 6 and you get 10.2 VORP runs in 696 PA (Edgar had 692). Manny produced 68.6 VORP. That's 78.8 VORP runs for Manny and Cora. Tejada and Huff were good for 87.8 VORP runs last year. VORP is offensive contribution only, so when you consider defensive ability, the case is even stronger for Tejada/Huff.

Sorry about the mix 'up, but Marte was going for Gathright in the 4-team rumor that everyone was discussing, and since you put your $0.02 about Gathright in, I figured you were discussing the same scenario. Huff has never played CF in 736 games played. He'd be a good candidate to play LF if Manny is moved for Tejada, but I don't think he'd be worth what Tampa would expect. The D-Rays are under new management, so this isn't the same group that raped the Mets for Kazmir. That said, their new FO has said that they know they have a glut of young position talent and need pitching, but they aren't making any moves unless the deals blow them away. They know they need some time to build, so they aren't desperate, which means they are unlikely to jump the gun on a deal.

At the expense of Marte? No thanks. I'd rather sign Snow short-term, see a Youk/Petagine/Snow platoon, and make a big offer to D-Lee next offseason.

Sarasoxfan, if you are really interested in knowing more, you can read the book Win Shares by Bill James. It details the calculation of win shares and the reasoning behind the formulas. I haven't read it yet, but it is on my list. While I am interested in WS, I prefer to look at WARP. WARP/VORP (Wins Above Replacement Player, Value Over Replacement Player) gives you a better idea of how much better the player is than his likely emergency replacement (journeyman from the minors, drek signed off waivers). THT does now have WSAB (Win Shares Above Bench), which is a lot like WARP. However, you need to divide the WS number by 3 to determine how many actual wins that correlates to. EDIT: Back to the thread topic. I think the players on this year's ballot to get in should be Blyleven and Jack Morris. Here's a link to the list of the players on the ballot: HOF Ballot

Right on about Gathright not being enough for Marte. I wouldn't even offer Shoppach. I'm pretty sure that Stern can give you more than Gathright. They have similar contact and OBP numbers through the same levels of the minors, but Stern has more power. There's no sense trading away something valuable to the big club's roster for something they already have, and I'd much rather see Shopp being worked in as the backup C than watching Huckaby or Flaherty at the plate. Plus, it appears Ellsbury is on the fast track, so Gathright wouldn't be around for long anyway. NOTE: If anyone is going to bring up Stern's numbers from his only MLB exposure, last year, be sure you take notice of the extemely small sample (15 ABs) it took to compile them.

Bill James created the concept of pythgorean record. The original version is as follows (RS^2) / (RS^2 + RA^2) = WIN % Since its creation, the formula has been refined and the quick-and-easy exponent has changed from 2 to 1.83. The current most accepted model places the value of the exponent at [(RS + RA) / G]^0.285. Here's the answer to your Tejada question. I like this trade because Tejada is better than a replacement player at his postion by a larger margin than Manny is at his position. I posted the numbers that support this on the first page of this thread. The article you read more than likely assumed that the "pulses" at CF and SS were replacement level players (minor league journeymen, drek on waivers). Since Tejada's improvement over replacement level is higher than Manny's, then that article would have had the Sox at more than 91 wins with a replacement level LF. FOR THE RECORD: I do like this trade. I don't care if it happens, though. They either acquire the best all-around SS in the game, or they keep one of the best 5 hitters of the last 30 years. Win/win situation, if you ask me. EDIT: Click here to read a good article about the history of WIN % estimators.

I couldn't agree more. It's high time our FO started making moves based on the ramblings of a hometown journalist from one of the division foes. :sarcasm:

Yeah, VORP is value over replacement player at that position. Manny's raw numbers are much better, but since the baseline for LF is higher than it is for SS, their VORP is similar. If you add defense into the mix and look at WARP, then you get a clearer picture. Miggy's 3-2-1 WARP1 is 7.9, Manny's is 6.9. I'll be giddy if they can pull this trade off because you can find decent corner OFs much easier than you can find good middle IFs. Is the latest deal Manny and Clement for Tejada and Matos? I thought I read it was somewhere.