ORS

This is the personal issue? He lives in a suite in a public hotel! IMO, this is the latest installment of Manny's reasons for his wanderlust. If he was serious about the privacy issue, he would move into a big house with a big gate in a suburban gated community. Pimping it at the Ritz seems more important than being left alone. There is one good develpoment in this situation though. By getting the notion that Manny will accept a trade anywhere out, this makes negotiations easier for the FO because it opens the floor to competition. Perhaps that was the reason for this quote in the first place?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the winner of the Big 12 Championship game get an automatic BCS bid. If Colorado can pull of an upset of Texas, unlikely, then that would leave 3 one-loss teams in contention for the last spot. If that were the case, I think Texas would get the spot and still get the #2 ranking for the title game, but Colorado would take the last spot via winning the Championship game.

The formula is fairly straightforward, and you can get the variable values needed on just about any sports related website. OBP = (H + BB + HBP)/(AB + BB + HBP + SF)

Lay off the s*** 2212, seeing a contradiction there is pure hallucination. Something can annoy you without being a major concern.

I certainly hope you aren't suffering from trichinosis, an disease associated with an intestinal parasite found in undercooked pork, and that you are napping due to tryptophan, the sleep inducing enzyme found in poultry protein.

Outright picks in bold, spread picks in italics: 11/24 12:30 ET Atlanta -3 At Detroit 11/24 4:15 ET Denver -2 At Dallas 11/27 1:00 ET At Kansas City -3 New England 11/27 1:00 ET At Cincinnati -9 Baltimore 11/27 1:00 ET Carolina -4 At Buffalo 11/27 1:00 ET At Tampa Bay -3 Chicago 11/27 1:00 ET San Diego -3 At Washington 11/27 1:00 ET At Minnesota -4 Cleveland 11/27 1:00 ET At Tennessee -7.5 San Francisco 11/27 1:00 ET St. Louis -4 At Houston 11/27 4:05 ET Jacksonville -3.5 At Arizona 11/27 4:05 ET At Oakland -7 Miami 11/27 4:15 ET At Seattle -4.5 NY Giants 11/27 4:15 ET At Philadelphia -3.5 Green Bay 11/27 8:35 ET New Orleans -1.5 At NY Jets Monday Night Football Point Spread 11/28 9:05 ET At Indianapolis -8 Pittsburgh

Wow, Yankee fans seem to be in full spin-mode over this trade. Yes, there are injury concerns about Beckett, but the trends certainly look good. His time on the DL due to blisters has decreased from 3 trips in 2003, to 2 trips in 2004, to 1 trip in 2005. Games started have increased from 24, to 26, to 29, as have innings pitched. I've heard it reported by Jack McKeon, sorry no link, that Florida was very cautious with him, and I can't say that I blame them, so that decreased his total innings from what it could have been. Comparing Beckett to Wright is laughable if you look at their career rate stats. Wright's '04 is complete anomaly on his career record, while Beckett's '05 fits in with the improving trend of his record. Comparing Beckett to Vazquez is more justified, but consider the fact that Vazquez had a very good 1st half in 2004, but just fell apart in the 2nd half. He improved this year, but he also went from the best offensive division in baseball to the worst, so the translation probably has him performing at the same level as he did in the 2nd half of '04. Why is this? I've read several articles that suggest he logged excessive innings at a young age in Montreal and in their farm system, so it's not a stretch to assume that his arm is a little burnt up. Not to compare the two, but we saw what happened to Pedro after his arm was worn out. He went from pitching like no one in history to becoming an above average pitcher. I'll take above average any day of the week, but he just wasn't the same. Imagine if he was only above average to begin with? Beckett hasn't suffered too much abuse (lucky for the Sox he had blisters), and is just entering his prime years armed with a 94-97 4-seamer, a 91-94 sinker, and an excellent overhand curve. Scouting reports indicate that he has excellent mechanics, and at 6'-5" 220, he has an excellent power pitcher's build. Could he flame out? Absolutely, but trends and other factors make our excitement completely justified.

Beckett gets arbitration each of the next 2 years. He'll get a raise from the $2.5M he made this year.

Lowell's career spray chart at Pro Player Stadium: http://www.simply-c.com/non-siteStuff/lowellProPlayer.gif Mr. Lowell, I'd like you to meet Mr. Green Monster, your new best friend.

Keep rationalizing. Beckett will be the best pitcher to switch teams this offseason, unless the Twins go apeshit and trade Santana, including the FA market.

I see what you mean, and I agree about keeping Lowell. I've been in the "It's Youk's time" boat for a while now, but when the "baggage" you have to take for a 25 y/o pitching stud just won a GG at 3B and his last year was his only bad offensive year in the last 5, then you've got to give him a shot. Especially since he is a RHH pull hitter and your home park is Fenway.

Wouldn't FL have done this and kept Beckett for his last two arb. years if it were possible? I have a hard time thinking that they wouldn't. IMO, Beckett was on the trading blocks since he was the big talent closest to Free-Agency that could sweeten any deal to get Lowell off the books, who I don't think the Marlins could have moved by himself.

You don't get a player of Beckett's caliber from a team trying to dump salary without taking a big contract in the deal. Take the good with the bad. On the whole, this a good trade for the Sox. They are getting a young, I repeat young, front of the rotation starter. Beckett is only 6 months older than Papelbon and won the WS MVP when Papelbon was just finished with his first season of short season single A ball. Look at the talent involved, not the balance sheet.

Good trade. Beckett, when healthy and focussed, is a premiere pitcher, and it's worth eating Lowell's contract to obtain a young front of the rotation starter. I do worry about his Home/Road splits, but I think being around a focussed veteran like Schilling will help his mental approach during the dog days of summer. I have no question about his ability to get up for big games. He's a difference maker. Plus, if Lowell is able to turn things around, and Fenway will help with that, then the FO comes out smelling like roses on this one, no matter how well Hanley or Anibal perform. So, Hanley may be the Marlin's starting SS this year? I think he's about to bust loose and prove all the hype surrounding him. I tracked his stats this year. He'd go 3/4 with a triple and a SB, then follow it with a couple of 0'fers. All the other tools are ready for the show, so once he gets consistent with his stroke, watch out. That said, he and Anibal are still only prospects, while Beckett is a proven MLB commodity. You have to pull the trigger on these types of trades.

I'm not arguing that he wasn't the MVP. I think his defense was good enough to overcome the run production deficit that I demonstrated, as is evidenced by the fact that he had a +9 FRAR. My point is that Ortiz was more valuable with the bat this season. If you continue to dismissively say, "Well ARod had more H, HR...etc", without looking beneath the numbers, then I have no choice but to lump you into the same group as those idiot sportswriters that gave Colon the Cy Young based on the fact that he was the only 20 game winner. EDIT: Emphasis on the word valuable. ARod had the better statisitical season in most of the major categories, yet Ortiz was able to produce more runs. Runs carry the most value IMO.

Just like none of those writers look at WHIP, K/9, BB/K, or ERA, but instead look mainly at W/L record when deciding who the best pitcher is. Just because they are idiots doesn't mean we have to be. It's not fair? Insert laugh track here.

I've been looking at several different RC metrics today. In every metric ARod lead Ortiz in runs created (or equivalent runs) by a difference that ranged from 5 (baseball-reference.com) on the low end to 14.5 on the high end. Different RC metrics use different combinations of the following stats: H, BB, HBP, IBB, TB, SB, CS, AB, TPA, GIDP, SH, SF. Here's one example of a formula that I found on espn.com: RC = [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times (Total bases + .26[bB - IBB + HBP] + .52[sH + SF + SB])] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF) This formula was responsible for the 14.5 run margin when I entered the appropriate values for each player into the variables. RBI performance is not included in any of these metrics, which it shouldn't be, because RBI opportunities are beyond the players' control. That said, ARod and Ortiz had extremely similar RBI opportunities, so I think including these into their overall run contribution is warranted. Here are the runners that they had a chance to drive in: (BP.com) ARod: 1B-252, 2B-180, 3B-84, Total-516 Ortiz: 1B-262, 2B-75, 3B-69, Total-506 Ortiz drove in 101 of his RBI Opportunities to ARod's 82, a difference of 19 runs. So, even in the best case scenario for ARod, he contributed 4.5 less runs than Ortiz. This shows that Ortiz was more valuable to his team with the bat without even considering situational hitting, which was monumentally in Ortiz's favor.

Please. Your post came right after HHM complained that Beltre destroyed his fantasy team. It wasn't said, but it was implied. Speculation is speculation, but once again, I guess you are the arbiter of what speculation is allowable. Get over yourself.

If I'm comparing the two of them based solely on their performance at the plate, then I'd say they had fairly equal seasons when the data is given a brief analysis. The major rate stats go to ARod, ARod: .321/.421/.610/1.031 Ortiz: .300/.397/.604/1.001 but it's fairly evident that the OBP & OPS gaps were driven by BA, meaning he only did one thing better than Oritz, which was hit for a higher average. SLG is such a marginal difference that it is irrelevant, but this means that Ortiz (.304) lead ARod (.289) in ISO (SLG - BA), which measures true power. The ISO gap was due to the fact that Ortiz only had 6 fewer bases despite getting 14 fewer hits. ARod had 1 more homerun, and a better homerun rate, 12.604 to 12.787 HR/AB, but Ortiz had 10 more XBHs. I'll be generous and say 1 HR is equivalent to 11 2B, which were the differences in the XBH categories. ARod stole 21 bases to Ortiz's 1, and I don't know how the hell he got one, so to this point, ARod has bested Ortiz by .021 BA points and 20 SBs. Only one thing left to consider, RBIs. Ortiz managed to drive in 18 more RBIs in 4 less ABs than ARod. Before anyone claims RBIs are a function of more than the hitter at the plate, let me say that I agree with you, so here are their RBI rates. RBI/RBIOpp. @ BaseballProspectus.com Ortiz: 0.1996 (101/506) ARod: 0.1589 (82/516) That is the most astounding difference yet shown, but I'll be generous again and say that .021 BA points and 20 SB are worth 19 extra runs. If you are willing to accept this analysis of the their whole season, then you need to dig a little deeper and see how impactful their offensive production was in order to determine which player had more offensive value. The best ways to do this are to look at their performance in blow-outs, close games, and C&L splits. Luckily, Jayson Stark has already done that for me....... ARod's the MVP, but Ortiz was more valuable with a bat in his hand than ARod was.

This is what started the steroid conversation in this thread: I see nothing more than specualtion there, yet you were quick to agree with those that said it wasn't fair to suggest that. I have never said anything more than I think Giambi is using something. I guess it's only OK when you are the one doing the speculating. I read all the threads here, and I put my two cents in wherever I feel they are necessary. If a Sox fan here condraticted himself as much as you do, my actions would be no different, but I haven't seen a fan of any team do it as regularly as you do.

No, I don't expect him to be happy about it, nor do I expect him to stay. I was just stating what would happen if he was kept.

They won't save much if they pick up Delgado. He's due $13.5M, $14.4M, and $16M over the next three years, with a $12M team option or $4M buyout for 2009. That's $47.9M guaranteed, and $55.9M if they pick up the option. Also, the 2009 option becomes guaranteed at $16M if he earns 30+ MVP points on the following system: 10 pts. for an NL MVP 1st place finish that prorates to 1 pt. for a 10th place finish, 20 pts. for WS MVP, 10 pts. for NLCS MVP. He finished 6th in the NL MVP balloting this year, earning him 5 pts., so he needs only 25 more pts. over the next three years to make 2009 guaranteed at $16M. That would make his total contract worth $59.9M through 2009 if he earned the points needed. source

If they hang on to Shopp, he won't be rotting down in the minors for the next 3 years. Mirabelli's contract is up after '06, which is, I believe, Shopp's last option year. Tek will be getting older and older, for catchers, and need more relief from his backup. Kelly could be his backup in '07-'08, and take over in '09 when Tek's contract is up.

Don't worry, ARod would have had just as much personality late in the game if he didn't need some milk, cookies, and a nap after 6 innings of playing 3B.

Yes, because players gambling on games carries the possibility of them having a financial interest in the game they are playing in (an interest other than their salary). I think that is a greater threat to the integrity of the game. And you can prove this? How do we know he didn't bet on his own team and throw games? Because he told us? He also told us that he didn't gamble when the story initially broke, and he has recanted that statement. If you are unwilling to believe Bonds, Giambi, and Sheffield, why are you so quick to believe Rose?