ORS

In terms of raw numbers, this is correct. But 3-2-1 VORP over the last 3 years suggests it is a wash. Manny's is 70.1, and Miggy's is 69.0.

I have seen nothing to suggest that the FO is willing to give up the blue-chippers just to fill a hole for 2006. I'll never say never though.

I have doubts that any answers are coming via the FA market. There is mostly drek or overpriced talent, Preston Wilson, left on the table. I think the answer will come through trades.

Don't get your panties all twisted. It was a suggestion, and it was refuted, why is that such a bad thing? I'll be thorn in your side as long as you continue with the smarmy attitude in your posts. "He's better than who you have now!!!1!!one!!LOLZ", that is just plain obnoxious. Especially when you don't take the few seconds of analysis it takes to realize that it is wrong.

The hot stove is usually dead between Christmas and New Years. Let the calendar change, something will happen.

Put all the exclamation points you want on the end of your sentences, still doesn't make you right. Cora is at least as good as, and most likely better than Reese. Nice try, though.

In no way do I expect to convert anyone's beliefs, but I can expose them as foolish.

That would have been exactly what an FO in disarray would have done. Something to hold in front of the fans and say, "See, we are doing something, and you like this guy."

If Bean's so good, why'd the Yanks get him back from the Rule 5 draft? And, why wasn't he in the BP this year when the Yank's MR was hemorrhaging runs? Duncan did one thing well this year, hit for power. He hit 34 HRs as a 25 year old, which is a little old for AA. He also struck out 140 times and put up this line .240/.323/.490/.813, as a 25 year old in AA. Is there an echo in here? He's not making the big club as a corner IF, and he's not drawing any attention in the trade market at that age with those numbers in AA. Those are the two that stuck out first and foremost, there are others, but I don't want to write a book.

I wouldn't say 100 times better. The Yankees system isn't bad from about low-A down as of last year, but several of those players will start in high-A and probably get promoted to AA this year.

No Phillip Hughes. I mean he's only either the #1 or #2 Yankee prospect in the system, depending on which publication you are reading. You really know that system.

You are the cause of this. I am merely the guy that is walking by and says, "Hey, everybody, look at this tool with his foot in his mouth."

This offense is driven by the Ortiz/Manny combo, who gets on base ahead of them is immaterial. Perhaps the brightest mind of the last 30/40 years, Bill James, was advising Theo, and is still working in the FO. I'm not worried about player analysis. Blisters are an injury concern? Many of the best power pitchers in the game suffer from blisters when they are younger and are never bothered by them again once the skin hardens. Beckett is 25, which is right on the cusp of peak performance years. This comparison to the Yankees trades is laughable. Vazquez is the youngest guy they traded for, at 27 years old, but he had a lot of mileage on him for his age. The Expos burned him out. He pitched 160+ innings as a 20 y/o, Beckett had less than 60. At 21, Vazquez had over 150, Beckett had less than 100. At 22, Vazquez pitched over 170 innings, Beckett pitched less than 120. See the trend. He lead the league in pitcher abuse points the year prior to his trade. It makes sense that he started both last year and this year good, but didn't have the stamina to finish strong. Renteria's production from last year is not very difficult to replace. He was average offensively and piss-poor defensively. He was only 1.8 WARP (wins above replacement player). Replacement level is drek you can call up from the minors or sign off of waivers. Hardly a huge hole created there, and they picked up a top-5 prospect in the process, who is an upgrade from the previously mentioned top-prospect. Schilling's doctors have always said that it would take 14-18 months to fully recover. He didn't get to workout last offseason because the surgery made it impossible. This offseason he can. It's no stretch to say that the 2006 Schilling will be better than the 2005 one, since last year's version sucked (except for the last two weeks of the season where his velocity, splitter, and location started to come back). Beckett is better than anyone in last years rotation. Wakefield is Wakefield. Clement had the worst BP support in the league and really horrible luck on BABIP, so it will be interesting to see what his year could be like if those things are around league average (BABIP fluctuates wildly for pitchers' throughout their careers, and the BP is improved, again...not a stretch). Arroyo is Arroyo. By what logic is the 2006 rotation worse than the 2005 one? Saying they will win the east is retarded, but so is saying they are falling apart. I have done neither. Too bad you can't say the same thing.

Falling apart? Some wishful thinking on your part, I suspect. Oh, that's right, they didn't sign the most expensive FA at every position of need. How silly of me to think there was an alternative to the 21st Century Yankee model of success.

This is probably the best way to maximize the return on Manny. If the Sox are out of the race, and if the pitching staff is still struggling (Schilling and Foulke's recoveries, Beckett's blisters, Saenz and Mota don't find it), they could possibly rake a contender needing a big bat over the coals. I'd love for Anaheim to get a little desperate. It is very easy. 3-2-1 VORP Tejada - 69.0 Manny - 70.1 3-2-1 WARP1 Tejada - 7.9 Manny - 6.9 Offensively*, Tejada is just a tick below Manny when you compare them to a replacement level player at their given positions. When you throw defense into the mix, as WARP does, Tejada has more value over his replacement than Manny does. *I'm not suggesting that Tejada is anywhere near the caliber hitter that Manny is, just that he is comparable to Manny when you compare them to replacement level. Since it is easier to find a decent hitting LF this year than it is to find a decent hitting SS, I think Tejada plus Manny's replacement will be better than Manny plus Edgar's.

That makes no sense at all. Damon turns down more money, a chance to reunite with Nomar, Mueller, and fellow skirt chaser D-Lowe, and being in the media epicenter of the country. LA is exactly his kind of town. Lots of cameras, lots of hype, lots of glitz and glamour. He gives all this up to become the ire of a fanbase that wholly embraced him. I'm not buying it. Not for a second. The bigger offer came from the Scottsville Borasites, and no one else.

Beckett and Prior are so similar that I don't think it really matters. Great stuff, good mechanics, similar velocity, high K rates. And, if anyone is worried about Beckett's health, then they have to be terrified of Prior. He was on the DL twice last season for problems with his right elbow. Beckett's blisters will become callouses. Bad elbows are often never the same again.

Spread Picks : 12/31 4:30 ET...... At San Diego.... -10........... Denver 12/31 8:00 ET...... NY Giants......... -9............ At Oakland 1/1 1:00 ET...... At Indianapolis... -6.5............. Arizona 1/1 1:00 ET...... Baltimore.......... -3............... At Cleveland 1/1 1:00 ET...... Buffalo.............. -1.............. At NY Jets 1/1 1:00 ET...... Carolina............ -4.............. At Atlanta 1/1 4:15 ET...... At Minnesota..... -4.............. Chicago 1/1 1:00 ET...... At Kansas City.... -7............. Cincinnati 1/1 1:00 ET...... At Pittsburgh..... -13.5......... Detroit 1/1 1:00 ET...... At New England... -5.5........ Miami 1/1 1:00 ET...... At Tampa Bay.... -14........... New Orleans 1/1 4:05 ET...... Houston............ -1.5.......... At San Francisco 1/1 4:05 ET...... At Jacksonville.... -3.5......... Tennessee 1/1 1:00 ET...... At Green Bay..... -3.5......... Seattle 1/1 4:15 ET...... Washington...... -7........... At Philadelphia 1/1 8:35 ET...... At Dallas...... -12.5.......... St. Louis Straight Picks : 12/31 4:30 ET...... At San Diego................Denver 12/31 8:00 ET...... NY Giants.....................At Oakland 1/1 1:00 ET...... At Indianapolis................ Arizona 1/1 1:00 ET...... Baltimore....................... At Cleveland 1/1 1:00 ET...... Buffalo........................... At NY Jets 1/1 1:00 ET...... Carolina......................... At Atlanta 1/1 4:15 ET...... At Minnesota.................. Chicago 1/1 1:00 ET...... At Kansas City................ Cincinnati 1/1 1:00 ET...... At Pittsburgh.................. Detroit 1/1 1:00 ET...... At New England.............. Miami 1/1 1:00 ET...... At Tampa Bay................ New Orleans 1/1 4:05 ET...... Houston........................ At San Francisco 1/1 4:05 ET...... At Jacksonville............... Tennessee 1/1 1:00 ET...... At Green Bay................. Seattle 1/1 4:15 ET...... Washington................... At Philadelphia 1/1 8:35 ET...... At Dallas....................... St. Louis Sunday Night Football Total points Sunday Night Football Total Points Scored.................__44__

Good article. I've been saying some of the same stuff. Although, he'd be a lot more believable if he got this little tidbit right, Damon will be 35 at the end of the contract, not 37

My loose criteria for and "ace" type season are at least 9 K/9, a less than one WHIP, an OPS against less than .650, and an ERA+ of 150 or more. Curt's numbers for 2004 were 8.06 K/9, 1.06 WHIP, .657 OPS against, and 150 ERA+. He came close, hence the not-quite-an-ace moniker I gave him. This is silly arguing the semantics of what defines "ace pitcher", though. If it pleases you, continue to think you'd rather have one great pitcher instead of two very good ones, but I'd really appreciate some sort of substantive argument other than, "the Yankees could have used one in '04", if you are going to try and sway my opinion. EDIT: W/L record is meaningless when discussing how dominant a pitcher has been.

I'm not trying to minimize the value of a true ace. For two years, when Pedro was at his peak, Sox fans felt more sure of a victory every fifth game than they did of the sun rising the next morning (pure hyperbole, but it makes the point). That said, I preferred the lesser-Pedro and not-quite-an-ace Schilling two years ago. While Pedro gave me 100% confidence to win 1/5 games, the duo gave me 80% confidence they'd win 2/5. Do the math. One times 20% (1/5) is 20%. Eighty percent (.8) times 40% (2/5) is 32%. I like a teams chances with two good pitchers more than one great one.

You had no dominant aces during the 6 trips to the Series from 1996-2003, but you did have several very good pitchers. The Sox had perhaps the two most dominant years ever from a pitcher, Pedro, in 1999 and 2000, yet they won the Series after Pedro came back to earth and had a better supporting cast in the rotation. Two very good pitchers is a better formula for success than one ace.

And, another thing, figuring full potential is reached by all, Felix is better than Papelbon and Lester. But, the duo is more valuable than the King all by himself. Hernandez pitches 1 out of every 5 games, while Paps/Lester go 2 out of every 5.

If you have to say, "if", then it isn't sure. Got it? Good.

FYI, there are no sure 300 game-winner 19 year olds. None. Ever.