ORS

Garland drastically improved his BB/9 rate last year. In fact, there has been a steady progression since his debut. With his stuff, the improved control is good reason to believe last year was no fluke. Especially since his BABIP has been fairly constant the last three years (.270, .277, .272). He won't dominate games because he's not a strikeout pitcher, but if he can limit the free passes, then last year's performance could become the norm for him.

The Gonzalez for Shoppach rumors were pre-Mirabelli trade; I don't see this happening now that the backup C is up for grabs. I think signing Huckaby to a minor-league deal means that Shopp will be given a chance with Huckaby as suckitude/injury insurance. If you have ever wondered why so many people claim you are a bit idiotic, then this post is a prime example. Assessing Shoppach's ability on 11 ABs is completely laughable. I think his MiLB performance warrants a serious shot in the bigs, and I hope he gets it as Tek's backup this year.

If the NFL were to somehow morph the '95 49'ers offense with the '85 Bears defense, I'll bet money you'd still take the '05 Jets over that team in your straight picks. I'm right ,aren't I?

These picks aren't for the prize competion; they are just for the fun of picking. Spread Picks 12/17 At New England ........-4..............Tampa Bay 12/17 At NY Giants............. -3............. Kansas City 12/17 Denver......................-9..............At Buffalo 12/18 Pittsburgh.................-3..............At Minnesota 12/18 At Indianapolis.........-7.5.............San Diego 12/18 At Jacksonville..........-15.............San Francisco 12/18 Seattle.....................-7..............At Tennessee 12/18 Arizona....................-1..............At Houston 12/18 At Miami..................-9...............NY Jets 12/18 Carolina...................-7..............At New Orleans 12/18 At Washington..........-3...............Dallas 12/18 Cincinnati................-7.5.............At Detroit 12/18 At Oakland...............-3...............Cleveland 12/18 At St. Louis.............-3.5.............Philadelphia 12/18 At Chicago..............-4.5.............Atlanta 12/19 At Baltimore............-3.5.............Green Bay Straight Picks 12/17 At New England ...................Tampa Bay 12/17 At NY Giants........................ Kansas City 12/17 Denver................................At Buffalo 12/18 Pittsburgh............................At Minnesota 12/18 At Indianapolis.....................San Diego 12/18 At Jacksonville......................San Francisco 12/18 Seattle.................................At Tennessee 12/18 Arizona................................At Houston 12/18 At Miami..............................NY Jets 12/18 Carolina...............................At New Orleans 12/18 At Washington......................Dallas 12/18 Cincinnati.............................At Detroit 12/18 At Oakland...........................Cleveland 12/18 At St. Louis...........................Philadelphia 12/18 At Chicago............................Atlanta 12/19 At Baltimore..........................Green Bay

Rate stats aren't very useful when they are taken over a small sample size. Anderson only had 34 ABs in his first season of MLB experience. I think you need to look at a sample of at least 150-200 AB for a rate stat to be useful. Cooper is a good pitching coach, but if some speculation is correct, he'll need to start going to Med School to turn around Vazquez's career. Apparently, some believe that Vazquez was overused as an Expo's prospect and young pitcher and that his arm is worn out. The sudden rise in the HR/9 rate in '04 could have been attributed to the league switch, but when he maintained it after switching back, it gives these claims some credence. The more I consider this trade, the more I question it from the CWS perspective. Vazquez is an upgrade over El Duque, but at what cost? They went from paying $4.5M to paying $11.5M for their #5 starter (and blocked a prospect who could have done the job for the league minimum). They lost a position prospect who could be better than the prospect one rung higher up the ladder. And they did all this for a pitcher with a declining K and HR rates. The really crazy part is brining a pitcher who is more prone to giving up the long ball into US Cellular Field, one of the most friendly parks to HR hitters.

Contreras

I thought McCarthy pitched well enough to earn a rotation spot last year. Oh well, looks like he'll be the spot starter and long relief man again. Good move for the CWS in the short term, good move for the D-Backs in the long term.

What's he going to do, run the ball over from 3B? The stress wouldn't be as frequent as if he were a pitcher, but these concerns can shelve a position player for a sizeable chunk of time. Baldelli missed all of this year recovering from TJ surgery. Personally, I'm not going to fret over this until it moves beyond the rumor stage, but I wouldn't be so dismissive of the implications if it were true.

Sorry to continue the nitpick, but I counted DAL as correct for Sizzlin, so if you take it away, he's 7-7 going into tonight. That makes the outcomes as such: Atlanta wins by 10 or more: Closest total points between Stocker (31) and SF#1 (42) Atlanta wins by less than 10 or loses: Closest total points between Stocker (31), SF#1 (42), and Sizzlin (49) Oh yeah, and just in case, I withdraw my total points number from the competition. In future weeks I'll only make picks so as to not take a number.

No matter how this plays out, even if the Heat go on and win the championship under Riley, there is no way he doesn't come out looking and smelling like a Rat in this whole escapade.

Not to be a stickler, but I only count Sizzlin with 8 correct spread picks. TB, NE, INDY, WAS, SEA, BAL, DAL, & DET were correct picks, while STL, CHI, OAK, TEN, CIN, NYG, and SD didn't cover. Personally, I'm playing for the fun of picking, so I wish to take my name out of contention for the money. This means Stocker and SF#1 are both 9-6 with Atlanta picks and Sizzlin is 8-7 with a NO pick, putting 3 members in contention. Sizzlin's picks That is directly cut-&-pasted. Perhaps the confusion comes from the typo in the bold formatting of the CIN vs. CLE game. He clearly picks CIN, but it didn't bold because of the extra /. EDIT: The bold didn't come through when I cut and pasted, here's a link to his picks Sizzlin's Picks

Excellent points that you bring attention to. The post-1996 Yankees have consistently exceeded their Pythagorean record. The reason they have been able to do this is their close-game record, and as everyone knows, Mariano Rivera makes appearances in close games. Teams with strong late-inning bullpens outperform their Pythag. Rec. routinely. Watch out for the Jays this year.

I disagree. Ron Jaworski and Merrill Hoge do an excellent job analyzing film on NFL Playbook (or whatever the show they do is called), and neither of them will be on the steps in Canton, OH in a gold jacket any time soon. Success on the field doesn't necessarily correlate to success as an analyst.

I have no doubt that Nomar will outperform Cora at the plate, and VORP, which is a purely offensive metric, would show that Nomar is a better option, but we are talking about filling the most impactful defensive positon on the field, and WARP1 incorporates both offensive and defensive contributions. The question of whether or not Nomar is a better option than Cora boils down to what you expect Nomar's physical condition to be for the year. If you think his injury trouble is behind him, then he will, without question, be a better option than Alex Cora. However, I feel that injuries will continue to nag him and diminish his performance (he's played 81 games or less in 3 of the last 5 years), meaning that an equivalent option, in terms of total contribution, is already on the roster and will allow resources to be used filling other holes.

Well holy s***, you mean you actually play baseball. Well send your resume in to the Sox champ, you're a lock for the GM job. FYI, a huge majority of baseball fans either play or have played the game in their lives, so you statement amounts to nothing special.

Yeah, what he said.

This is definitely a possibility, but if that is their approach coming into the draft then it would make a lot more sense to trade the #1 spot away for a bunch of picks (and that is what it will take to pass on Bush IMO) because one O-Lineman won't rebuild a line, you need several. If that is what happens, I think it is safe to assume that the team trading up to the #1 spot has Bush in mind. As far as Davis goes, I'm not doubting that he is a good NFL RB. However, good NFL RBs are readily avaiable. Reggie Bush is special. He's in the LT/Barry Sanders category. He's the type of RB that totally changes the game and game plan of opposing teams. Before you call me crazy, I remember watching Barry play at OK-State, and Reggie Bush is the only college player since that reminds me of him.

While I agree that Encarnacion isn't my choice for LF if Manny isn't pissing in the Monster next year, I'd rather see Marte be given a shot in LF than brining in White who sees action in an average of 100 games per year in a 13 year career. http://www.oakinheritance.com/images/largepics/stool.jpg This might help you get off your f***ing high horse.

Any team that takes Leinart over Bush is just plain crazy IMO. Reggie is one of those once every 10-20 years type players. I don't even think Leinart would be the best QB in the draft if Brady Quinn decides to skip his senior year. I think it's a two-horse race between Houston and SF at this point. Whoever ends up with the #2 pick could be in a very interesting position. Both have some young QBs that they could decide to stick with and trade away the pick to a team desperate for a good young arm.

If the Texans win either of their games against the Cardinals (possible) or Jags (unlikely) and SF loses all of its next 3 games (down 7-0 to Seattle already), then their matchup on week 17 could decide the Bush sweepstakes. That could be one of the rare instances where a matchup of two 2-13 teams is marginally interesting.

Orton going 2-2 for 70 yards on Chicago's TD drive may have just bought him a few more possessions at QB. Before that he was 9-23 and 92 yards; I figured we'd see Grossman get a shot late in the game after that craptastic performance. 21-9, Steelers after the botched PAT.

Tuiasosopo is killing the Raiders. I figured he and Bollinger would be equally horrible and without Martin the Jets would lose. Looks like I was wrong there. Perhaps I should have swallowed that bitter pill.

I will definitely be interested in the Marlins next year. So many variables with all that young prospective talent on the field. If they catch a breakout year from a couple of those players, then they might threaten 80 wins, but I doubt it. Willis is a stud, but he's only going to be on the field a maximum of 35 games. The rest of their rotation is full of question marks, although Mitre looks like he could have the stuff to succeed at the MLB level. Cabrera is a beast, but I don't think it is any coincidence that his best year came with Delgado hitting behind him in the lineup. He is the only threat on that lineup right now. He may see less pitches to hit than Ortiz would without Manny behind him. 100-110 losses sounds about right for a squad full of little-to-no experience kids, but like I said, some of those kids have high ceilings and if a couple can start to realize some of their potential, then who knows.

As talented as Bush is, I can see the Packers taking Bush in the draft and taking their chances with Aaron Rodgers at the QB position.

Jax D is coming alive now, 2 sacks on the last 2 Indy drives. Garard hasn't looked comfortable against the Colts' D. Their FG came after very good field position on a punt return to the Indy 33. EDIT: 17 posts this page, weird. EDIT AGAIN: the thread auto-corrected, disregard first EDIT.