Agreed. He brings up a legitimate concern.
Very good points. Here's another thing to consider, and it may help explain the AGon and Snow pickups.
Pitcher '05 G/F Career G/F
Wake 0.94 0.97
Wells 1.51 1.16
Clement 1.29 1.67
Schilling 0.78 1.17
Beckett 1.25 1.14
Arroyo 0.85 0.98
Replacing Arroyo with Beckett will produce a significant number of more ground balls. A healthy Schilling should too. While I don't expect him to have the dominant stuff he had pre-2005, he'll at least have his command back and be able to keep the ball down, which will produce more grounders. Wells' outperformed his career average, but he did the same thing in SD in '04 (1.51 GB/FB), so I think a ratio of 1.20+ is a reasonable expectation. Clement probably won't have a ratio as high as his career average, but 1.30+ sounds right. In total, I think the Sox rotation in '06 will be lot better than the Sox rotation in '05 at keeping the ball on the ground. Combine that with good gloves all around the IF, and they should hold the opposition to quite a bit fewer runs.
Millar did get on base pre-2005, but I don't think his '05 production is a wash when compared to Youk. His '05 OBP was .355. Not horrible, but it's no stretch to think a guy with a career .376 OBP won't exceed that. Yeah, Youk has only had 270+ career ABs, but I think the telling thing is his .100+ IsoOBP. That has been consistent throughout his MLB and MiLB career, so he only needs to hit .260ish to accomplish that. And, historically players start showing more power in their late '20s. Youk is entering his age 27 season, so I think an improvement over his ~.130 IsoP is another reasonable expectation. ST performance seems to be bearing that out as he is slugging north of .500.
Something to consider. Graffanino was acquired at the deadline. While his performance for the Sox was very good, they only got 2 months of it. I agree, that Loretta will likely be a wash in terms of the rates that Graffanino gave the club from August on, but they will get it for a whole year (barring injury). That is an upgrade.
AGon is likely to be an offensive blackhole. But, he's one with pop in his bat, so some of his infrequent hits will likely be denting the Monster or clearing it. Yes, this is an offensive downgrade.
It will be tough for Lowell to provide what Mueller did in terms of stepping up and being a tough out in big spots. But, if he bounces back to career averages, he will produce what Billy Baseball did in a context-free environment.
Mueller '05: .295/.369/.430/.799
Lowell Career: .272/.339/.461/.800
I'll admit, that is a big assumption based on his '05 and early ST reports, so 3B is likely to be a downgrade offensively. But the potential is there for it to be a wash.
That's two upgrades and two downgrades, but it is with a vastly improved defensive environment (in terms of skill and likely more chances). The infield may not produce more runs than last year, but it is very likely that they have a better run differential, which is really the most important thing.