ORS

Anyone that throws him a strike right now is just wrong.

They've stranded 7 in 3 innings. Holy f***, that's awful.

Fenway is hurting him too. Oh well, that's the park you pitch in, deal with Mr. Fastball.

Beckett is just s***ing all over himself this inning.

Worst possible outcome there for Manny.

I don't think that is an issue they would be helpless against if they were to acquire him, though, given the current depth. And, think about it. If they are fighting for their playoff lives, he helps because he's really good and he probably gets them into October. If they aren't, then he can skip a start or two and have light work loads in September so he's fresh. So, I don't see that being an issue if handled properly (if they were to acquire him - which I don't think is necessary, but it wouldn't hurt).

Cleveland will already get two top-40 draft picks for C.C., so they will be looking for more. Now, that more can be two other top-prospects that are more advanced (AA or higher), or more than two less advanced top prospects (high-A or lower), or some combination thereof. The team trading for him will likely want to work out an extension so that they get him for longer than just the 1/2 year rental. I think this is the wrong thing to do if the Sox are involved. I don't like his conditioning and think it will become more of an issue in future years. Therefore, the calculus becomes should they give up the "more" to go hard after a title this year? Well, let's first consider what the "more" is likely to be. I figure, in terms of minor league talent as of the start of the season, if it's only two players, they'll likely have to be Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson / Michael Bowden. Because of Pedroia and Lugo's contract, Lowrie is probably expendable. Losing Masterson or Bowden would hurt, I think. Don't forget, though, they would then be getting the two top-40 picks, and next year's draft class is looking like a deep one. So, the net "loss" is the time it takes to advance prospects drafted in '09 to the level Lowrie and Masterson / Bowden are at now and the risk that they never advance that far. When you look at their most recent drafts and consider how many of their early picks still haven't broken out, that seems like a decent amount of risk. That said, given the state of the roster / farm, I think it's one they can live with. What if it's more bodies but at lower levels, like say, Anderson, Lin, and Bowden? Lin? A potential future CF - expendable because of Ellsbury (Kalish, Westmoreland - if he signs). Anderson? Best power prospect in the system - his loss would hurt, but he's not that advanced and he could be replaced in the draft (theoretically). Bowden? Probably their best pitching prospect right now despite Masterson's MLB performance, but if they are able to keep Masterson, this doesn't hurt too much at all (given the age of '09 internal rotation options) - toughest to replace because of advanced level of play. These guys are all 1st round talent, but they'd get two more of those in return, so it's a move they can live with. The big question is, do they need him? The current rotation features Beckett, Lester, Wake, Colon, and Masterson, with Matsuzaka, Buchholz, and Schilling (possibly) ready to step in when needed. He's better than all but Beckett, and that is some serious depth, but I don't think it is their area of weakness. It is not likely to be what prevents them from defending the title. I think the middle-relief issue and the Ortiz issue should figure first and foremost in their transaction manuevering. Don't spend to fix what really isn't broken. Focus on the flaws.

I was wrong, he missed 5 mins of real-time, but only 1:45 of game-time. That said, your recap is more than a bit off. 3rd Quarter - Per this Pierce's injury occurs at 6:49 in the 3rd [table]Time|Bos|LA|Event 6:48|58|62|Posey in for Pierce 5:03|63|62|Pierce in for Posey 1:25|72|71|Pierce makes a 3 1:04|75|71|Pierce makes a 3[/table] The quarter closes with Boston up 4. Not until Posey makes a 3 with 8:44 left in the 4th do they go up 10. Play-by-Play

This makes little sense. The team benefits from one of it's stars, one who is playing quite well mind you, missing about 4 mins of crunch time just so they can get a 30 second adrenaline rush? This just goes to show that you can find anything if you look hard enough.

I contend that this is the opposite of what is happening. Look at this plate discipline stats for '07 and '08 at fangraphs.com. [table]Year|O-Swing%|Z-Swing%|Swing%|O-Contact%|Z-Contact%|Contact%|Zone%|Pitches 2007|24.41|61.49|44.19|84.62|94.94|92.28|53.36|2213 2008|22.77|61.36|43.70|80.91|95.73|92.19|54.22|1118[/table] Quick primer: O-Swing is percentage of times he swings Out of Zone, Z-Swing is percentage of times he swings in Zone, Swing is percentage of times he swings, O-Contact is percentage of times he makes contact Out of Zone, Z-Contact is percentage of times he makes contact in Zone, Contact is percentage of times he makes contact, Zone is percentage of pitches in Zone, Pitches is total number of pitches seen. His strikeout rate is up 2.5% at the expense of his walk rate that is down 2.7%. Almost 1 for 1. The idea that he is getting thrown more strikes doesn't appear to be true. Over the total number of pitches thrown, he's seen 1 more pitch in the strikezone per 100. Negligible. He's swinging less frequently overall, and most of that is taking more pitches Out of Zone. "This is what I'm saying", you say? Wouldn't he be walking more if that was the case? The only big change there is in his O-Contact%. The only plausible explanation I can come up with is that pitchers are throwing him more early count strikes and then expanding the zone, and he's following them. He's taking some of them, hence the improvement in the statisitcal measure of how often he chases. However, I think he's going further out of the zone that he did last year. The lower O-Contact and higher K% agree with this. And, to my eye, he swings at just about anything with 2 strikes in the count.

Heard about a guy on the radio who bought a Big Brown triple crown ticket early this year in Vegas. Put $300 down at 200-1 odds - $60K payoff looming. I wonder how his Saturday afternoon went?

I looked at his O-swing% and Z-swing% this weekend because to my eye it "felt" like he was chasing more. What I noticed at the bottom of his fangraphs page is that his O-contact% is the thing that has changed most. Combine this with what I thought I was observing and his weak BABIP, and I think he is chasing. What the fangraphs stats don't show us is how far outside the zone he's going after the ball. When his O-contact% drops with his BABIP, and his K-rate climbs, I think it suggests he going after more really bad pitches. What brought about this change is unknown. I've seen it suggested Magadan is responsible for this. Whatever the case, it needs to be addressed.

Really, his torso appears about the same, and his arms used to be rail thin. His arms appear to have developed some since coming into the system. I think the opposite is true. Debut in Tampa (Sept of his draft year) http://cache.boston.com/bonzai-fba/Globe_Photo/2005/09/20/1127216177_6718.jpg

I agree, this situation, down 3, is more like when Mahay should be coming into the game, not about to leave it.

How does one walk Sexson? Not only does he swing often and suck at doing it for the most part, but he's got the biggest strikezone in the game.

Unstoppable.

Great job by Pedroia working Bedard in each AB today.

Is Giese his life partner?

Looked like just a glancing blow.

Vintage '07 Pedroia. More of that please.

Very nice AB for Moss.

That's what you get, rook. Walk a stiff like Beltre, and he'll score without you giving up a hit. Make sure you log that in the lessons learned file.

The D3 he posted is for this season only. It's what our record is compared against what it should be based on the sum total of all individual performances.

That analysis falls a bit short, IMO. The offensive bump isn't just going to be Rodriguez and Posada. Damon, Matsui, and Giambi have all been playing light years above what anyone would have reasonably expected given recent trends, but certainly within their talents. I think the offense will carry the dead weight that is their pitching staff to a few more wins, certainly enough to keep them in contention.

So I switch back after the Belmont, and I find Papelbon on the mound up 11-2. WTF, over?