example1

The point is that the Sox better be prepared to go for both because there's a good chance they won't be able to get Schmidt. By definition any pitcher has a lot of risk associated with him. I GREATLY prefer Schmidt over Zito, particularly as I have thought about it for weeks on end at this point. Schmidt would be a great compliment to Schilling, Beckett and Papelbon. Definitely. Matsuzaka has a higher upside as he's younger. He is also a bigger risk. At this point I'm for the Sox taking risks that could put them over the top. Ideally, go for both. You're definitely right about the speed it leaves your hand. My dad is a physicist and when I was growing up we played a lot of ping-pong and tennis and he conveyed what you laid out above to me. The same is definitely true of tennis balls. Serves can come at 140 mph off the racquet but be considerably slower (like 120 mph or something ) when they get to the other side. So I agree with your point above, but is the velocity that matters the "muzzle" velocity of when it leaves the hand, or is it the velocity when the ball crosses the plate? I've seen a number of scouting videos that track both speeds. Going by your logic, wouldn't a lighter ball have higher "muzzle" velocity but lose more velocity when it crosses the plate, while a heavier ball would have a lower "muzzle" velocity but retain its velocity for a longer time? (more momentum, making it harder for air to slow it down?) I think that's right. What kind of ball do they use in international play?

EDIT: I apologize for the triple-post. I'm addressing 3 different posts separately... again, apologies. I'm sorry but it doesn't seem like you understand the process here. It is a BLIND BID for negotiating rights, so ANYBODY has a chance. To say the Sox don't have a chance of signing him is like saying "the sox don't get to spend the same type of money everyone else does" or "the sox can't use legal tender in this case". Its just wrong. A blind bid means just that: if Tampa Bay comes up with 200m dollars and no other team offers that much then boom, Tampa Bay has EXCLUSIVE rights to him. No team will know what the other teams bid so, theoretically, the sox can bid enough money to outbid everyone else and get rights to him. It has nothing to do with whether or not Saibu Lions, or NESN or the Yankees or Matsuzaka wants to go to boston. If they put in the highest bid he has the choice of either signing a contract with the Sox or NOT PLAYING IN MLB NEXT YEAR. After that he can wait until he's a FA, at which time it will be up to him who he signs with, the whole bidding thing will be out the window and he will be available in a standard FA situation. Sorry to triple post, but I'm seeing all of these factually inaccurate claims like "the sox have no chance at him". Its like saying "even if I had the money, there's no way I could buy a Lamborghini". Money talks, period.

I'm sorry but that's just not factually correct. Japanese professional baseball plays from late March to October. Haven't you noticed that Matsuzake just pitched a few days ago and struck out more than 10 guys? It was mentioned in a few places around here. What makes you think Zito WANTS to pitch for the Sox? Left handed with the Monster? AL East? East coast? None of those things seem Zito-like to me. Finally, even if he did want to pitch for the Sox you're right to say he's a #2 or #3 at best. He seems to choke in big games. He's a potential cash-cow. If nothing else every time he starts against the Yankees it will be a big deal with the Matsuzaka vs. Matsui matchups adding to the Yankees vs. Sox drama. Again, Schmidt will be done 3 years from now. A rotation of Beckett, Papelbon, Matsuzaka, Lester and Bard/Buchholz/Bowden in a few years will look pretty good, especially if we supplement one of them with another FA signing.

No. The team that has the highest bid has EXCLUSIVE negotiating rights with Matsuzaka for a year. Therefore, unless Matsuzaka wants to stay in Japan for another year he will need to sign a deal with that highest bidder. Zito and Schmidt can take LESS money to stay in SF/OAK if they choose to do so. Or they can prefer to go to NYY or LAA or wherever. Matsuzaka has very little say in who gets negotiating rights to him. That's a big difference, particularly since Boston has a reputation of being a difficult place to play. Absolutely. No doubt about that. I read somewhere that the free agents/draft pick agreement (I believe it was the collective bargaining agreement) expires soon and the draft picks will no longer be an issue. In either case you're right though, cause either pitcher is likely better than the draft picks lost and certainly the pitching situation is urgently in need of an MLB caliber pitcher. Given Schmidts age it BETTER be for less commitment time. IF the Sox COULD get Schmidt for less money and less time then I'm fine with it. But putting all of your marbles in one basket is extremely risky (given that we seem to agree that Zito is neither a good fit or that he is agreeable to moving to Boston). So what I'm getting from your posts is that you would a) not make an offer to negotiate with Matsuzaka and put all of your SP marbles in the Schmidt basket, hoping that he will CHOOSE to come to Boston (rather than essentially being forced like Matsuzaka would). That seems risky to me. Very risky. How about a winning bid on Matsuzaka and a cheap but incentive laden contract? It seems like the team that wins the bidding has a pretty good chance of getting him for a reasonable salary. I don't think I called his command brilliant (if I did I apologize). He has good control and can certainly throw strikes as needed. Whether he can hit his spots perfectly like Pedro of old or Schilling is another thing altogether. Also you're definitely right about the lighter ball and its smaller size. They're different. However, I'm not sure that a bigger heavier ball can't be thrown as hard or with as much break. You could be right, and I looked it up physics of baseball but couldn't find an appropriate site to answer that question. For instance, a light, small ball (like a ping-pong ball, for instance) can NOT be thrown as hard or with as much break as a much heavier and larger baseball. I'm not sure what the effect of changing the size and weight of a ball would be. I imagine there is an "optimal" size and weight for maximum break and speed. Break is more a factor of seam height, I believe, as that is what dictates variable pressure above or below the ball. Perhaps the weight makes it harder to throw hard, but (as with ping-pong vs. baseballs) it is not an absolute that lighter is better. In theory it seems like it would be, but I don't think it is necessarily. In either case, they use different sized balls in high school and college ball too, I believe (I could be wrong, but I played both and I'm pretty sure there are slight differences). Again, I'm not going to hold it against him. I don't expect this guy to be the #1 pitcher in all of baseball, but the scouts that have seen him seem to agree that he has the skills to make it in the majors. I've read some who say this guy will definitely be a #1 caliber pitcher, whether that means Oswalt/Santana quality or Sabathia/Lackey quality remains to be seen. I question his hype too, that's why I watched some of his games and I was pretty impressed. He has poise. He is clearly intelligent as he is able to change his pitches to suit the situation... throwing his strikeout fastball in appropriate situations and taking something off to make sure he's painting the corners. He had a nice strikeout curveball and a throw-it-for-a-strike curveball. Josh Beckett, for instance, seems only to have the throw-it-for-a-strike curveball which, if anticipated by the hitter, quickly becomes a watch-it-fly-onto-Landsdown St. curveball. Like most of your posts I agree with every point you make ORS. I just don't see a lot of other options for the Sox. I'm skeptical that they should put all their marbles in the Schmidt basket. I'm almost certain the Zito doesn't want to play for Boston. I WANT the sox to go after Lilly regardless because he'll be an okay #5, cheap, and can eat up innings. Also he regularly decimates the Red Sox so they'll kill 2 birds with one stone. At worst he could be a LR out of the 'pen.

The sox have been competitive pretty much from the late 70's. They have finished with a record over .500 27 of the last 33 seasons. That's not to say they DID win all of those years (obviously they didn't) but they fielded teams that were somewhat in the chase and which won more games than it lost. There were always better teams, but every generation a Sox team comes about that seems to have a shot. I think the sox have tended to have considerable success against just about everyone OTHER than the Yankees.

Hey mr rolling-your-eyes-at-inappropriate-times, didn't you say that loretta is the best all around 2baseman the redsox have had in a very long time? Did you say he was the best 2baseman they've had since 2005? No. You said in a long time. If by "a long time" you meant "1 year" then perhaps, but that would be a really stupid thing to say and I don't imagine that's what you meant. In fact, you mentioned both Walker and Bellhorn as your "Loretta is better than..." comment. I showed you that both had at least one season that, offensively, was better than Lorettas between 2003 and 2005. In other words, offensively the sox have had 2 hitters who are at least equal to Loretta, and Walker was likely better. Loretta is known as an offensive-minded 2B, he's not orlando hudson on the defensive side by any stretch. Given that, he did very well defensively last year, but (as mentioned above) errors are not a good way to judge it. He doesn't get to many balls and doesn't make spectacular plays. Balls hit right to him he's great with... as is every IF who has made it through A, AA, and AAA baseball to the majors. You HAVE TO BE a 100% fielder on the easy balls hit to you or you won't stick around.

So what? This guy has been a big game pitcher his whole life. That's not to say that he'll be great in the majors, but he's met every challenge that's come his way, including the olympics and the WBC. Don't BLAME him for not having played a complete major league season yet. I understand your skepticism... I really do. I don't want a Mike Hampton/Carl Pavano/Tim Hudson type bust. At the same time, i don't want to watch Zito walk a bunch of guys or Schmidt's arm fall off either. I don't trust Zito as far as I could throw him (which isn't far) and Schmidt is a hopeful but he's no longer a #1 and he's considerably older. Are you content to make bids on Zito and Schmidt, probably not get either and go into next year without 5 decent SPs? I'm not. It seems to me that Matsuzaka is the 'easiest' pitcher to land, insofar as all it takes is loot. With Lester's cancer, Schilling's final year, Wakefield's final year, Papelbon's questionable ability as a SP, the slim chance that either Schmidt or Zito wants to play in Boston, the liklihood that Manny is on the move for 75 cents on the dollar, it seems to me that he's as good an option as any. As someone who buys the baseball package for TV every year, watches every single game, ALSO buys the mlb.com baseball package and go to games whenever I can, I feel justified in saying that the Sox can spend some money (yes, MILLIONS of dollars) to go after the best possible players. I disagree that the risk of missing out on him is necessarily smaller than the risk of getting a guy with a large contract. His track record, stamina (which you dismissed above) and ability to throw strikes should make him considerably better than a guy like Clement. At worst I think he'll be a guy who regularly throws 200 IP, has a 4 ERA or so and wins 15+ games a season. He could be better. Would you rather have AJ Burnett or Matsuzaka? Rich Harden? Andy Pettitte? Roger Clemens? He should be healthier and more long-lived than all of those guys, so I say go for it. Finally, I would much rather see the Yankees have to settle for a guy like Zito (who seems to lose every big game he's in and pitches poorly against the Sox) than get an unknown potential phenom like Matsuzaka. If Matsuzaka is as good as Pettitte was in his prime, then he will likely help the Yanks to another championship and stay with them for years and years and years. OR, the sox could make a serious run at him, possibly get him and start their own dynasty of young pitchers (Beckett, Matsuzaka, Papelbon and god-willing Lester).

I would take Arroyo back in a heart beat. Doug Miribelli trade anyone? I see that type of thing happening. Mike Lowell + Salary for Arroyo? I'd do it.

The same thought crossed my mind, then I banished it forever until I ran into your comment. Jeez, what horrible people we both are. It is not the Yankees fault though. It's Lidle's fault or the fault of the mechanic who last worked ont he plane, or God or someone. Baseball is far away at a time like this.

f***ing crazy man. I heard about the crash first, then heard remarks on sports radio about "how will he (some player) deal with the news about Lidle". I didn't put the two pieces together until I heard the sports news. Its just nuts... not much else to say other than I'm sorry for his family and friends and my thoughts go out to them...

Obviously. I'm pretty sure that Josh Beckett is aware of his poor performance and will do everything he can to do better.

No, I noticed. But since its nearly impossible to quanitfy defense and ALL major league 2B make the plays that come their way, I consider offense to be more important. How can you prove to me that better defense is better/worse than 100+ pts of OPS?

Todd Walker (2003): .283, 13 HR, 81 RBI, .761 OPS Bellhorn (2004): .264, 17 HR, 82 RBI, .817 OPS Loretta (2006): .285, 5 HR, 59 RBI, .706 OPS Don't look too hard man, or you might notice that the last 2 main 2B the Sox have had were better than Loretta. I LIKE Loretta, but he's not irreplacable by any stretch.

Of course they could. It would be Japan's best pitcher going up against the Japanese Babe Ruth on a regular basis, as well as Ichiro. Chances are the Yankees or M's will post an absurd 60 million or something and that will be that.

Yeah, maybe we should start a Matsuzaka fund. You reading this John Henry?

This is a guy who threw 333 pitches in a bullpen session. He takes tremendous pride in his health and ability to throw and throw. In the majors the ability to avoid injuries is huge. He's not just a japanese favorite (a la Irabu). He's a japanese baseball icon. They have a highschool tournament very much like the US has march madness (I suppose it would be a college world series/march madness cross). The entire country pays attention and its a really big deal. --Anyway, at age 17 he threw a 250 pitch, 17 inning victory. --The next day he came in in relief to hold the other team down so his team could come back from 6-runs down. --Then he threw a no-hitter in the final Could you imagine a little leaguer or college world series pitcher pitching 17 innings, being pedro-esque out of the pen the next day, then throwing a no-hitter in the final? It's unheard of. All in all this guy knows how to win and get hitters out. He's got a good professional track record, a great amateur track record and would be a great addition to any team. I'm skeptical that the sox will go after him, but I hope they do. Straight out of High School he made the all star team for the Pacific circuit, the first rookie out of high school to get that honor.

I definitely read somewhere that the posting fee was non-refundable once the team accepted it. Whether that is correct or not I'm not sure, but it seems like a pretty sweet deal for the Seibu Lions if you ask me.

Given that its a blind bidding process they actually WONT offer 101 posting fee. They won't know what the sox bid, and the sox won't know the Yankees bid. They may start with a "low-ball" number (i.e., Saibu may say "nothing less than 15 million") but beyond that its open to the highest bidder. The team that wins does NOT get that money back and then has EXCLUSIVE rights to him to either sign a deal or wait a year. Assuming Matsuzaka is so young and good right now, I'm pretty sure he'll sign any reasonable deal. I want the sox to go after this guy like their lives depend on it. They can't let the Yankees out post them/out bid them over and over again. C'mon Theo!

Abreu WOULD be a nice RF for the sox. He would. However, he ended up NOT winning the WS for the Yankees and costing them a first-round pick from 05. I can see it both ways, particularly as I think Damon will not last 4 years. Damon's greatest strength was his OBP ability and a little power. He's not incredibly fast nor is he a tremendous fielder. He could end up being a head-scratcher like Mussina ('he makes 18 MILLION a year?? Mussina??") by the end of that contract. Meanwhile, I was thinking about it today, Coco Crisp is actually a good player. He's as good as anyone that would be on the CF/Leadoff market this offseason, next offseason, etc., He will have a better year next year and you'll be saying "Johnny who?" I didn't say Cashman didn't deserve some credit, but I wouldn't call a guy who has LOST 6 straight world series (as they were odds-on favorite each season) a genius necessarily.

Smooth enough for a 3-4 year deal at 5+ million a year? Too steep for me. If he's willing to be a UTIL and play every few days, possibly some 2nd or 3rd as well, depending on what happens with other starters, then I'd pay him a little more than a guy like Cora. I'm just not that into Cora... am I missing something?

You're a good guy man, its obvious you really care about the yankees and I have to respect that. The Yankees were better than the Sox this year. I know that for ME the Yankees' loss is a slight vindication of my view on the Sox FO this year. They didn't sell the house in order to get an Abreu or a Damon. So that's good. I think they made a fair evaluation of the talent they had, and knew that without everyone being healthy this team didn't stand a chance, particularly if guys like Papelbon, Wakefield, etc., were injured. The Yankees were closer to championship caliber than the Sox were by July, especially with all of their injured players coming back and the sox late season injuries. In any case, I think both teams did the right thing, but the yankees should be more disappointed with their season. The sox admitted from the beginning that they were 'retooling'. So, yeah, on one hand you can say "you guys didn't get to the playoffs" and you're right. We didn't. But there are always good teams that don't make the playoffs and there are plenty of admirable franchises that don't get there. Even Jeter would say the goal isn't to get to the playoffs but to win the WS. The Yankees are not going to win the series this year.