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The Sox won't need Helton to hit HRs as much as he has in the past. Between he and JD Drew you could realistically be looking at .300/.400/500, 45 HR, 200 RBI, + defense next year. That would hopefully be in addition to the .295/.400/.580, 75 HR, 240 RBI that you'll get from Ortiz and Ramirez. You're also talking about three guys who could come into Yankee stadium and cause some mild-heart attacks with the short porch in RF.

okay, between Buchholz, Bowden, Ellsbury and Bard what have they done after the draft to change that trajectory as far as the sox are concerned? Bard has done nothing, except show that he can hit triple-digits without much difficulty. Ellsbury has played gold glove caliber defense, gotten on base at a very solid rate, and shown some of the best speed in every league he's been in. As far as projectability for most guys, I think its relavent to look at size, age, natural skill set, pro-success to this point, and injury history when looking at the pitchers in particular. Few of them have much injury history. I believe Bowden may have had a minor injury in HS, but I'm not even sure of that. At 6'3 (Buchholz), 6'3 (Bowden), and 6'4 (Bard) size doesn't seem to be a problem at all. At 22, 20 and 21 respectively age is not a concern at all either. Buchholz is the oldest, but he's right on track development wise, as are the other two. All three have tremendous natural stuff, even relative to the other top pitching prospects at the same ages. The arm most comparable to Bard's is Verlander, although Verlander is definitely the better pitcher and has more refined stuff. Fastball ways they are similar as starters. Both Bowden and Buchholz have control and K's, which is the type of thing that sticks with players into the bigs. Finally, both buchholz and bowden have done everything that anyone--even those with high expectations--has ever asked of them since being drafted. Bowden (as I tried to point out elsewhere) had numbers last year that were considerably better than Jon Lester did his first season in the minors, at the same age. Buchholz was even better in his first full season. I think Ellsbury is closest, and is probably more polished than Hanley. Let me clarify that: I remember Hanley having the reputation for not always having his head about him. He was a 'gut' player who played with lots of passion and athleticism but wasn't the most intelligent player. I think Ellsbury has the same athleticism as Hanley, both play a defensively important position (Ellsbury is better defensively) but Ellsbury doesn't have the reputation for power or absent-mindedness. He will be MLB ready by next season, if not before. I think its easy to underestimate the amount of maturity that being on a good college team can provide. Ellsbury was essentially the leader on that very good Oregon State program that has produced a number of MLB draftees of the past fw years. My reasoning is that for guys signed out of HS I think a 6 year window is appropriate (by the time they're 24 or 25 they should be close to the bigs if they're going to be above average players), for those who go to college for four years, a 2-3 year window is appropriate if they're going to be stars or above average. Ellsbury went to college for three years and is 2 months older than Hanley. If he had been drafted out of HS they would have had the same gestation period, Ellsbury just did some of it in college. If they're talking about Ellsbury + then yes, it is at all equivalent to Hanley Ramirez. But kids with tremendous ability to make contact, get on base, run quickly and catch the ball at the age of 21 tend to only get better at it as they age. If they're better than all of their peers at a certain age, chances are they will continue being better than their peers. The most HRs Hanley had at any level was 8 (2003, Augusta). In the majors he had 17 in his rookie season. It is inexact but there are certainly signs that guys will make it and by treating all prospects the same (i.e., "they don't mean anything until they've proven themselves in the majors") is to completely overlook that fact. To expect that the sox recent drafts will be only as fruitful as most drafts is to overlook the facts that 1. They've had the 2nd and 1st ranked draft the last two years, largely because 2. They've earned/saved lots of priority draft picks (10 1st or 1st sup picks in last 2 drafts) by letting aging FA's go, which has meant that 3. If they were to get the best players in the draft they would have to spend a lot of money in the draft, which they have. More than all but 1 other team, I believe. I think its easy to just disregard the whole prospect issue under the guise that "well, you don't know who is going to be good", but it causes you to look at the glass as half empty in discussions that center around how the "franchise" as a whole is doing.

I imagine that his production stats would increase in the Sox lineup, perhaps enough to mitigate the difference in rate stats from moving from Coors (an A+ hitters park) to Fenway (an A- hitters park). If he's hitting behind Drew, Ortiz and Manny he will be driving in some serious runs. If he's in front of them he will get great pitches to hit.

They can also do a lot with Jacoby Ellsbury for the next 4 years. Given that the Yankees traded the #17 overall pick (SS Carl Henry, drafted 6 spots ahead of Ellsbury) to get Abreu for 1 year, I think it makes a lot more sense to get a player equal to Abreu AND keep Ellsbury to become your starting CF. Especially since they would have given up Ellsbury for a player they had control of for 1.5 years in a year where, with injuries and a weak pitching staff they were not going to win anyway. Would you be surprised if the Yankees signed Bobby Abreu to a 4 year deal for an AAV of roughly what Drew is making after this season? I wouldn't. Yes, we all know you don't think that prospects tend to pan out. That's fine. And I agree with you that we won't see a day when MDC, Hansen, Buchholz, Bowden, Ellsbury and Bard are all on the same roster and performing above average. The ones I see as least likely to perform above average are (in order) MDC, Bard, Hansen, Buchholz, Bowden and Ellsbury. I'd trade MDC in a heartbeat.

Just to clarify why I said Bowden is probably a better pitcher than Lester was at this age: with limited data: Age 19, First Full Season: 2006: Michael Bowden (Greenville-A) 9-6, 107 IP, 3.51ERA, 118K/31BB, 7.61 H/9, 9.86 K/9, 1.13 WHIP 2003: Jon Lester (Augusta-A) 6-9, 106 IP, 3.65ERA, 77K/44BB, 8.66 H9, 6.03 K/9, 1.38 WHIP Look at the difference in Ks in the same number of IP. Fewer TOTAL walks, by a considerable margain and more K's. His control and stuff just appear to be better. Given that the year after Lester's above performance he was almost traded as a key part of a deal to net Alex Rodriguez, I don't think we should just get Bowden confused with the other B's or toss him aside lightly. Everything screams "Major League Pitcher" with this kid.

That's a lot of starting pitching. Bard's the only one I would let go. I think Bowden is already at--possibly ahead--of where Jon Lester was at his age.

They do have faith that those guys will be stars. All three of the B's have had considerable success at every level, except for Bard who probably has the best stuff but is very inconsistent. I think the Sox are playing tough to get. About the quotes above about Theo saying he didn't want to give up the pieces for Abreu: THEO DIDN'T WANT ABREU. Why is that so hard to see? For whatever reason Abreu wasn't a player they were wiling to give up a 1st roudn pick for. The Phillies, as part of getting rid of Abreu took NYYs first round pick from 2005, right? So that's roughly the equivalent of giving up Jacoby Ellsbury, Bowden or Buchholz. It sounds like its STILL something that they would be reluctant to do, even for a player that woudl fit perfectly into the team as currently constructed. As much as its nice to say that Theo dropped the ball and didn't sign Abreu, I don't think its true. I think Abreu would not have helped this team last year and would be more of a problem than not moving forward. Now they have JD drew, a comparable player (except to Jacksonian ) and they only had to pay money (which the yankees have to pay as well anyway), not first round picks. Now it looks like there's a possibility of picking up Todd Helton, possibly without giving up a first round pick. I don't see it as hypocracy or even changing their tune. Picking up JD Drew didn't cost a first round pick. Getting Helton may not cost that. It seems consistent to me. Theo hasn't suddenly stopped valuing young players. If anything, the fact that we're discussing a deal for a former top 5 NL hitter in which ONE first round pick would get the deal done I think is an indicator that Theo is right in his approach and that there is still a plan. . If we wanted to trade Bowden, Bard, Buchholz and Ellsbury we could, in theory, get just about anyone in baseball (Pujols and Yankees aside). I think that says a lot against those of you (a700) who love to point out that they're not real MLB talent but prospects. Apparently other organizations can imagine a day when all 4 are playing in the bigs and adding something really nice to their team. When you add MDC and Hansen to the mix I personally see a vindication of the entire rebuilding process the past few years. We apparently have 6 players who are either on the cusp of the MLB or who are in the minors that many other teams would unload their high-salary guys to get.

Helton's salary is pushing 17m. That's pretty terrible. Drew has a higher career SLG than Abreu, and had a higher one last year. to say that Abreu has more power is, therefore, simply false. Drew averages 27 HR a season, Abreu 22. Last year Abreu had 15, Drew had 20. Just because Abreu stopped his roids last year and had a massive power drop doesn't mean that he's a naturally more powerful hitter than Drew. The fact that they play the same position and each hits left handed makes me think they are a FINE comparison.

I imagine that if this deal is going to happen the financial situation for the sox will be a good one. I don't think that Theo is going to trade away the future or the payroll for a player of questionable value. Jacksonian, I think your assessment/comparison between Helton and Abreu are pretty good. I think that Helton has always been the better hitter, but Abreu has better speed. I also think that drew is a good comparison with Abreu, more injury prone but more natural power. Any player of that caliber is a good one to add to your lineup.

No Ellsbury. No Bowden or Buchholz. Any possibility that Crisp is a part of the deal? Move WMP or Drew to CF and put the other in the outfield?? Haven't heard it mentioned, but it wouldn't be out of the question. Lugo Youkilis Ortiz Manny Drew Helton Pena Varitek Pedroia Wow. Defensively that's pretty weak, but Pena naturally falling into the 7 hole and Varitek in the 8 hole (or flip them) indicates a strong lineup.

Youk's name is brought up because presumably this would be too many corner IFs. I think that moving Lowell would be a victory only surpassed by somehow moving Clement. Its not everything in this deal, but the sox would lose no sleep moving Lowell, putting Youk at 3B and having Helton play a well-above average 1B. A deal consisting of Lowell, Tavarez and a minor leaguer for Helton would be tremendous. If we can avoid moving Youkilis I'm all for it. If I were the sox I would jump at a Hansen or Delcarmen deal over any of the three B's. a700 is going to be disappointed with the Sox treatment of Youkilis as a valuable-type player, because he doesn't consistently put up the standard AVG/HR/RBI numbers that baseball fans have come to look for in their players. The sox know how valuable he is as a hitter, able to get on base, work counts, young, cheap, plays at least 2 positions, good team player. He'll be better than Scott Brosius ever was and we'll have him for years. Just my guess. (of course, he could be gone in a few hours). Like Neckbones said, he had the third highest WS of any Sox player last season. He has tremendous OBP skills, he saw more pitches than just about anyone in baseball last year (and more per plate appearance than just about anyone). If you want major league skills how about looking at those numbers? He's not just okay at getting on base and seeing pitches, he's one of the best in baseball. For a couple hundred thousand a year I'll take that any day over an old, overpriced guy like Lowell for one more season without any 3B plan thereafter. If this team has Ortiz, Manny, Drew and Helton 3-6 then high OBP guys will be at a premium for scoring runs.

I would be surprised if that's what they dealt. I don't think they're gonig to trade their two top pitching prospects (insofar as Hansen is a prospect) and their top position prospect for Helton. That said I'd be willing to give up a fair amount to get Helton on this team (his 1.023 career OPS would be a nice addition to Manny and Papi). I would prefer that they move Lowell to Youkilis and I think that Youkilis would be an excellent 5th IF who can play both sides of the diamond and then use him next year as your 3rd baseman. I would trade Bard, Delcarmen and Lowell, ask for less money but save some real talent. If they do pull off this deal I would be pretty happy regardless of who got traded, but Ellsbury should not be dealt, hands down.

So, Giants fans are bad because they brag about winning the NL West, but you brag about the dodgers making the playoffs last year in reference to how they're better than the Red Sox? That seems pretty hypocritical, doesn't it? Or, are you allowed to brag because you're better than everyone else and nobody else could possibly stand up to your greatness? hmmm

Why are you judging people that you don't know Linda? Who are you to do that? I don't get what would possess someone to come on here insulting people and calling names. I think you take away from the open discussion generally seen on this board and I think its a shame that you feel the need to say nothing nice or anything at all. Oh well.

With a quick look at soxprospects.com I can see why an otherwise strong-looking system is ranked so low. 6 of the top 12 potential prospects have yet to play a full season (Lars Anderson, Kris Johnson, Jason Place, Justin Masterson, Daniel Bard and Bryce Cox). I imagine if each of these guys play to their potential we'll be talking about a higher ranked system. Not that I actually care. Two of our minor league teams won titles last year, so its definitely not all doom and gloom.

I think Mike Jones could have a good season and perhaps show us something (you know, relative to his place on this list) worth seeing. Other than that your assessment seems fine Jacksonian. I think that would not be accurate for the top 25 prospects, but 37-50, okay.

Hey all, this is the response I got from comcast when i sent a complaint in yesterday: Thank you for contacting Comcast Cable. In 2007, MLB Extra Innings will be available through Comcast. Beyond that, the league may strike a deal with DirecTV to exclusively broadcast Extra Innings content through that provider. If you would like additional information on this matter, please visit the following URL: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/20/sports/baseball/20base.html?ei=5087%0A&em=&en=ea10f101a3cbb3a3&ex=1169787600&pagewanted=all If you have any more questions feel free to reply to this e-mail, or you can chat with one of our Online Customer Support Specialists 24 hours a day, 7 days a week using the following link: http://www.comcastsupport.com/sdcuser/asp/default.asp Thank you for choosing Comcast. Sincerely, Andre Comcast Customer Care Specialist It looks like it will be there for 07 and not afterwards. That gives me a year and a few months to figure out what to do. Perhaps I won't like baseball by then... or maybe I'll just move. Good news for now though.

It doesn't help when both are supposed to be two of the best hitters on the team. Surrounded by vets like Varitek, Lowell, Papi, Manny, and solid guys like coco, and youkilis you're talking about a slightly better lineup. I think both are going to be fine.

I have a nice laptop computer and have no problem watching games on it. What sucks is that most digital cable these days comes with a DVR function, which meant I could come home from work at 5 and could start watching the game from the beginning. Also, who the hell wants to sit with a computer on their lap for 4 hours? I thought capitalism was supposed to improve quality of life and access to things like this? I live in an apartment, I can't get it unless I move. I've subscribed for the past 3 seasons. Sigh. f*** them!

Just watching the scouting video Joba looks either like Sidney Ponson or Bobby Jenks. I would groom this guy as a closer given that choice. Of course, I could replace Ponson with Brad Penny, in which case the picture would be a little rosier.