example1

It has been 5 hrs since the last post in the baseball forum. I think it is safe to say that today and tomorrow will be the calm before the storm. A lot of s*** is about to go down over the next few weeks. Either the Sox are going to make a run to the WS or they're going to lose. We will either spend the entire offseason talking about the glory of 2009 or the need for the team to make drastic moves to re-enter the cream of the class in the AL (supposing we lose to ANA or NYY--or MIN). Right now it certainly appears like there's a chance for another Red Sox-Yankees LCS, which are really just unbarable to me I don't know about you all, but I really can't stand Sox-Yanks playoffs series. Victory is so sweet, but I hate, HATE, HATE losing to the Yankees to end the season. It is pretty much the epitome of perfect defeat. It is your hated rival laughing at you while he's walking away with your girlfriend and I'm on the ground holding my jaw. It is the ultimate in hurt fandom and it really, really sucks. I will just be pissed off. It will be an interesting time...

95 wins every year and a few World Series?

ALDS: Sox over Angels 3-2 Yankees over Twins 3-0 ALCS: Yankees over Sox: 4-1 NLDS: Phillies over Rockies: 3-2 Cardinals over Dodgers: 3-0 NLCS: Cardinals over Phillies: 4-2 World Series: Yankees over Cardinals: 4-1 I really, really hope I'm wrong.

And the Yankees advance to the ALCS. Without Morneau there's no excuse for the Tigers to lose this year. What one game do we think they'll go back and look at as the reason they didn't win? Some s***** game in cleveland? Some game they didn't give two shits about against KC? Pathetic.

Honestly, so does Bedard when healthy. He had over 200Ks a few years back in the AL East (yes, I'll take that as a sign of dominance). I don't entirely know why people jump on Dojji for suggesting Bedard and Duchscher, other than their injuries. I would have no problem with the Sox putting Harden through a tough battery of tests before signing him and would expect the same of Bedard or JD. I don't think JD is their option, unless they get him for the pen a la Saito (not a la Penny). I think people are looking at the whole "signing used garbage" thing through a bit of a filter. I understand that neither Penny or Smoltz worked. They did, however, pitch on a team that won 95 games. This team achieved amazing things and part of that team was Penny (in particular) pitching a lot of innings at average or below-average production. Theo's goal I would guess is to try to acquire rehabbing ex-stars to see if they have anything left. Similar to the interview he gave on the Sportshub the otherday, I bet he'd be willing to say that it's a 50:50 type shot. The 50% doesn't mean there's half a chance they come back to old form, merely that they produce league average or so, and maybe a good chance that they produce more than that. I'm willing to bet that the FO has weighed the potential gains from the potential losses of signing these guys and figure that some percent will be roughly average, some will be slightly worse, some slightly better, and some excellent. The overall risk of signing one of these guys to be your #5 is quite low if you already have a team built to win 95 games (which they do). I think we should expect more of these throughout Theo's tenure. According to his discussion of trades, at least, Theo indicated that the team has a really solid process for determining which players to acquire and when (via trade), and that even if those trades go poorly, they usually go back feeling that they had decided on the trade based on the best availabile information at the time. I think FA signings are the same. They wouldn't sign someone they expected would ruin their season, and they haven't. Penny and Smoltz didn't ruin the season at all. I think that the time Theo catches lightning in a bottle will be when one of those pitchers puts up a 7 or 8 WARP season and really boosts the pre-existing rotation. I think that Harden, Bedard and Webb all look like options for that role. Doj, I hear you that Harden wouldnt want to be a reliever. That's fine. I think, however, that players are open to coming to a team like the Red Sox because they win and could immediately boost their value if they have a good season or two. There's benefit to coming to Boston as a FA. Webb has a huge option next year and is injured to the point that his ability to perform will be in question. I don't think I would love the Sox picking up a huge option like that on one of their players, so I can't imagine Arizona is thrilled at the prospect. At the same time, it's Brandon Webb, so they very likely could. To me, Harden makes the most sense. We can argue about his stuff vs. Bedard's stuff, but Harden had some of the best stuff in baseball when he's one. He's probably similar to AJ Burnett, except that what Burnett does in inconsistency Harden does in injury time. I always wonder how players can throw a ball 95 mph and not just throw their arm out every season. Harden makes me remember that these guys are human.

I changed it for you. If David Wright were available then of course the Sox should explore that option. He's a great player and would be a nice fit. The other two have updsides and downsides that make the decision a bit tougher: Reyes's injury, Beltran's injury history, cost and age. Both would be nice additions, all other things being equal.

The baseball fan in me loves it that the Twins and Tigers will have one game for all the marbles. Then the Red Sox fan in me hates that this is so. The Tigers stood a chance of giving the Yankees a run, the Twins (as ORS stated) do not., in my opinion. The Yankees can pretty much punch their ticket for the ALCS either way, since Verlander went today and, well, Sabathia didn't. Also, FWIW, I think they should change the rules and let the team with the better record get home field advantage. It would be laughable if the Twins somehow beat the Yankees and ended up with home field despite being 8 or 9 back in the win column.

I think this is really the point. We all know that if the team makes a run then just about every player will be involved in some anxiety provoking situations. We will likely be relying on our least trustworthy relievers in a moment where the whole season rides on it and Chris Woodward may be asked to turn a tough double play. Thankfully, every other team's weakest players will be in similar situations too. Buchholz hasn't been through that before, but we hope he is going to for years and years. This is his chance to do that and we all know his stuff is good enough for the job. He just has to execute and he will be a very formidable pitcher. It is true that the season may be riding on it, but that's the reality (and beauty) of the playoffs.

I'd say Reyes would be a better option than JJ Hardy, if he's reasonably healthy. That salary (20m over the next two years) isn't too bad compared to 7m or so for Gonzalez. I think there's reason to believe that if he's healthy enough to play he will still be fast. Some people are just fast. He'll still be faster than Gonzalez or Lowrie for what that's worth. I think they're still going to put their hopes on Lowrie and I still have faith that he can be another .365ish OBP guy who could be pretty valuable for so cheap. He hasn't shown that yet (other than in college and the minors) but he has shown flashes when healthy of being a valuable SS for this club.

You're assuming that. I actually used his career per-162 numbers. Shea vs. Fenway/ AL vs NL

45 or 46 XBH vs 61 XBH (their 162 G averages) is not almost twice as many. Interstingly, this type of measurement is reflected nicely in SLG. I acknowledged early on that Reyes has better power, nobody doubts that, but the difference between a .435 and a .414 SLG isn't some universal gap that dwarfs one over the other.

I'm not sure what you mean by this above. Pedroia has a better IsoD than Reyes, which tells me that he has better plate discipline. I think having a higher average is still a good thing, it just isn't as important as OBP. Reyes has a lower OBP and a lower AVG than Pedroia. That doesn't make him a better hitter in my book. It would, however, make them a killer combination up the middle. Could you imagine the range covered between Reyes at SS and Ellsbury in CF. They aren't both the greatest fielders in the world, but they would cover a lot of ground and probably make a lot of spectacular plays.

Same universe? You do realize that the universe is a big place... as big as you can get. Ellsbury is not in the same universe as Pujols in the power department. Reyes played a full season in 2007 and had 12 HRs. His career high is 19, but with 7, 19, 12 and 16 the last four full seasons, I don't think they are separated by as much as "universe" would imply.

I think you're probably right about Reyes. He has a year (2010) and an option, both getting closer to that FA salary (9 and 11m respectively). Have we all agreed that a .350 OBP and 60-70 steal potential makes you best leadoff hitter in the league material? If so, we've got that already. That said, having another offensive presence like Ellsbury at SS would be a nice upgrade to the Lowrie and Gonzalez offensive hole they've had there for awhile. Reyes has some tools that Ellsbury doesn't (a bit more power specifically--gap and HR), but they're remarkably similar offensive weapons. I wonder if the Mets would be willing to trade Reyes for a package like Bowden and Lowrie. It isn't a great return, but between cost, injury history and low OBP Reyes isn't a god and shouldn't be traded for like one. If they wanted absolutely top dollar they should have traded him two years ago when he was untouchable. Bowden and Lowrie sounds a little low to me, but not by much, and if I were the Sox I wouldn't want to throw a whole lot more cost controlled talent NY's way.

I'm curious to see if the GM switches in Toronto and San Diego impact Theo's ability to swing a deal for Halladay or Adrian Gonzalez, two players I imagine he's still interested in acquiring going into the offseason.

I just don't think Hardy is the type of player the Red Sox FO would covet. I realize his upside and power potential, and I realize that he has historically been a plus defender. I just have a feeling that he's not their type. I realize also that he compares favorably with Gonzalez, but what would the cost be to acquire him? If it is any substantial return in prospects I just don't see it happening. If he were a FA then it may be a different issue.

I would be worried about CC if I were Jacko. Not because I was afraid he was incapable of producing, but because his success will likely dictate whether the Yankees win the WS or not and we all know that riding one pitcher through the ALDS, ALCS and World Series is pretty tough. Legends are made by those who can carry their team. We know CC has the stuff to do it but he hasn't done it yet, so it should be a questionmark. To put my thoughts in context, I think that the performance of Beckett and Lester are question marks too, so it isn't like we're without them either. I would just rather have two aces than one.

You think the Yankees would have thrown out $300m/10 years if the Sox had? I don't. They have their price too, it is just marginally higher than any other team can usually do. If the Sox had decided to blow other teams out of the water they could have. It would have been STUPID to do so, but they could have. Your blanket (all caps) statement assumes a lot. The reason it doesn't "register with people" is because you are spouting as if you were in the negotiations and you weren't. Any time someone pretends they know everything about something that it isn't possible to know everything about, it isn't going to register. You and I mostly agree, but I'm just sayin'.

Do you think he told them 8/180 and they backed down? Maybe so, but that doesn't sound like the way the negotiations go to me. I'm with both you and Dojji on this. I think Dojji is right that it wasn't an issue of $2m that sent John Henry away from the table (though that is a significant amount of money). I think it is just as likely that Boras reserved the right to call the Yankees with the Sox offer to make sure he couldn't get more and that pissed Henry off. Boras is a deal closer and he leaves the table all the time. The Red Sox have closed plenty of deals in the past. They just didn't close this one. Do you know that this isn't what happened? At some point they said "we are done with this negotiation", just like you said they should. I have no reason to believe that the number they threw out was what he ultimately signed for. I don't see why you would think that either. I have every reason to believe that he took less money (than they were asking for from everyone else) to play for the Yankees. He wanted to play there. You can tell from his perpeturally huge stupid horse smile that he's enjoying himself. And Boras wouldn't finalize a deal until he knew what the Yankees were willing to do. That's not how negotiations go either. I think you're right, a700, in that this deal was a huge defeat for the Sox. It has put a pit in my stomach every time I think about it for the whole season, and every time I see him I despise him. At the same time, I don't think any of us know how the negotiations went, other than that Henry left the meeting mad and Teixeira was ultimately very happy to sign with the Yankees. We also know that Boras had been talking about a 10 year deal for much of the negotiation and that the Red Sox often will not go beyond a certain number of years. At this point it is water under the bridge. He was the guy they should have landed, but I don't think they should get into the habit of having Boras set a price and they just meet it. I also think the Yankees could always open the purse strings more. For all we know the Sox did offer 8/180 and Boras refused to sign the deal there with Henry.