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I'm pretty sure that Beltre doesn't cost a pick. Not sure you weren't talking about him, but just to clarify. I suspect Adrian Gonzalez won't be the answer, but it really depends on Max Ramirez's value to other teams. I don't think so. I think you know most of the options and, although Adrian Beltre has both been discussed and seems to fit the mold, I think you're in denial that he could be a good option. He makes a lot of sense, especially if he's signed to a reasonable deal. It could be another answer, but if I were you I would prepare to be disappointed by a Beltre signing. I don't love it, but I can see how it would contribute to this team and will like it a lot more if it comes with some aggressive moves to improve the rotation.

If this deal goes through they traded $12.5m and Mike Lowell for 6 years of a good catching prospect. Personally, I believe they will end up swinging Ramirez but I can see why he's valuable. I've read about Toronto wanting a catcher, and bet that including a guy like Ramirez instead of a younger, less-bat guy like Exposito, would make the difference in needing to include a Buchholz or a Kelly. Theo basically turned Mike Lowell into another desireable piece of a potential trade. It was expensive at 12.5, but 6 years of a probable MLB regular catcher should be worth more than $12.5m. I think Adrian Beltre is pretty much a given, unless there is an under-the-radar deal for another 3B or 1B.

I don't know if it is a no-brainer necessarily, especially since MLBTR (linked to another story) is saying that Boras is asking for 4-5 yrs x $13m for him. To me, that's a non-starter. I'd say 3 years at $8-9m max would be my ceiling... I think it also likely means that: 1) We can be confident that Ortiz will be the DH in 2010 2) Youkilis will be the 1B 3) There will not be another 3B or 1B acquired for the duration of the Beltre deal (unless Beltre, the new 1B or Youk is expected to become DH)... this would limit their ability to resign Bay (if we assume he'll eventually be a DH) without having to upgrade offensively later at either LF (again), SS, C or CF. All real possibilities, but I think a move toward Beltre at a significant cost committment will give us some idea about where this club is going.

That's a great package. I'll be interested to see if this is for real. I think Saunders is a good pitcher, Aybar is a good MLB SS and Halladay is going to be pushing $20m/yr. Doesn't seem like an Angels-type move.

It's like the perfect sabermetrics-argument acqusition. On the surface there is little about Beltre that excites me. Under the surface I realize that "those in the know" see his defense and (as Dipre says) road abilities as plusses. He is a superior defensive player and the Sox would be in good shape to have this pitching staff and a great defense.

I would be very happy with a Lowell for Max Ramirez deal. Ramirez woudl be an attractive trade piece (or would free up another catching trade piece) and I have a feeling that Adrian Beltre is a foregone conclusion for Boston so Lowell is expendable.

I'm not okay with them staying pat. I've laid out pretty clearly what I want them to do (note: it doesn't assume that Felix is an option): http://www.talksox.com/forum/talk-sox-forum/13354-official-2009-2010-hot-stove-season-thread-34.html#post499902 1. Sign Matt Holliday 2. Continue building the bullpen 3. Trade for Roy Halladay (ideally without Buchholz*, Iglesias, Tazawa or Westmoreland) 4. Be aggressive on Aroldis Chapman That's not standing pat. I don't think there's any hidden messages in Theo's public statements. Make the playoffs nearly every year and hope either someone else beats the Yankees, or that they get lucky and beat the Yankees--pretty much the same goal as all the rest of the good teams in the AL. That may not be encouraging, but it is consistent and logical.

What do you suggest they do? Stop. Please. Just stop. Your lack of any faith, any inkling of trust for a GM who has taken this team farther than any in your lifetime is shocking. Do you really think that this is the team the Sox go into 2010 with? How helpful has it been historically for the Sox to have rumors flying all over the place about their potential moves? In my opinion, it hasn't been useful. How useful a negotiating position would it be if everyone thought Theo desperately wanted to trade for a huge name? Why should he show his cards to the MLB Network, or Scott Boras or you? We've heard everything, from "Theo desperately wants Adrian Gonzalez or Felix Hernandez" to "Theo is planning on standing pat with his current team and waiting for next year". Now, Theo says "there's a 50/50 chance" for a big move. Sounds like a pretty standard response to me... I would be very excited if Rafael Soriano ended up on this team for minimal young trade pieces.

Yet this is the type of deal that the Sox just wouldn't be interested in. They don't have a hole for Granderson and they don't want to give up a top prospect to get him. Different teams, different needs, etc., Every time the Yankees make some sort of big splash I get this twisted angry feeling in my stomach. Anyone else get that. I want Theo to do something just to do something. He's well aware, however, that fans are more turned on by shiny new toys than they are by sensible baseball moves (or non-moves), and he won't respond to moves by other teams. I'm still hopeful for Holliday, but my hopes are growing dimmer the more I think about it. Letting Bay go and replacing him with nobody seems like exactly the type of thing Theo would do, and it isn't exciting or uplifting in the slightest.

This is another head scratcher for me. The Yankees did get a good player in the deal and someone who will be valuable for them moving forward. What the heck is Detroit doing? I like the Scherzer move, to be honest, but beyond that it seems like an unimpressive haul for two of your best younger players. I'm not sure how much this changes how good the Yankees are... they're still really good. If I'm a Yankee fan then I'd be happy to get this move done.

Awhile back I posted a link to an article talking about Felix and his agent being upset with the previous GM for not offering to make a longer term deal when Felix was very young. Again, there is just a sense here that Felix isn't necessarily a lock to stay in Seattle. Despite his immense talent they haven't treated him like a star in Seattle. They paid him mlb minimum for 3 straight years (with a $710k signing bonus) before signing a 1-year $3.8m deal in 2009. This isn't a case of a guy who is afraid he's not going to make money or that injury will ruin his shot at having any future. He's been through that period already, for 3 years... with the Mariners. Compare that treatment with Joe Mauer or Evan Longoria and you'll see a pretty big difference. It's subtle but significant, IMO. Honestly, part of me hopes he stays with Seattle. I like watching him pitch for the Mariners and I think he's good for them. I agree with everyone who talks about the no-brainer involved in resigning him if I'm Seattle, but in two seasons he can pick the team he plays for and make nearly $20m/yr (if not more) for years to come. If he signs now he only gets one of those things.

Gammons reported last month that Theo likes Kelly so much he could see Kelly getting a taste of MLB action in 2010... I'm not sure that's the case, but he is really advanced according to people who have watched him. If his command is really as advanced as advertized then he's a good candidate to be a member of this team for a long time. So far, the Sox have not dealt their best young pitchers. They've dealt second-tier guys like Masterson, Hagadone and Hansen, but they keep the guys they thing are near-locks to be rotation caliber. Clay Buchholz is just entering his prime, going into his age 26 season. Kelly won't be pitching his age 26 season until 2016. Let's hope he doesn't mind pitching.

I hope the Yankees are going to pay a lot for Granderson. I agree with those who think he's somewhat overrated, but he's flashy enough and plays an important enough role on his current team to cost a lot. I really hope the Yankees give up Phil Hughes, but I'd be shocked if they did.

It's so funny. People seem to be assuming that if the Mariners would just step up and offer Felix what he's worth he will resign, as though his preference for where he plays has no baring on his choice. We know the M's have slighted him and his agent in the past. I know--from living in the Pacific NW--that there is no deep ties between Felix and the Mariners. Nobody here believes that Seattle is the place he would like to pitch more than anywhere or that he is even inclined to sign with them. Am I saying an extension is out of the picture? No, not at all. I'm merely saying that given the substantial amount he's about to make through arbitration and his FA not being far away, and his lack of any strong bond to Seattle, there's no reason to think that "casual discussions" in any way dictate that he's going to sign a huge extension. I don't think that as soon as the Mariners show interest he will be signing the contract. He will warrant CC Sabathia money and I will believe the Mariners will offer that when I see it. Until then "informal discussions" are just that.

That's much too high a price to take those guys. Halladay for a year guaranteed and a totally ineffective Vernon Wells for 20m+? His contract is SO BAD. No normal team can just take on 20m/yr of dead weight. Most teams don't want to have ONE $20m player, let alone one who sucks. I think the Yankees could keep their prospects and land Halladay by offering to take Wells at full price. I see reason to think that he would do okay as a Yankee OF, but between he and Halladay the Yankees would be paying 40+/yr for awhile after 2010. Toronto would get to do a price dump, but they wouldn't get much to move forward with.

The way baseball-economics generally work--as I'm sure you know--is that teams get maximum revenue by 1. Owning a television network 2. Being competitive every year late into the season 3. Making the playoffs regularly These moves have been made from the perspective of a team that believe they have the pieces to win 95 games every year. Penny was useful to give them a slightly-above average SP when Dice-K sucked and Wakefield was down, but he didn't approach his best seasons. Same with Smoltz. They still won enough to make the playoffs. I see these moves as low risk because they do not really jeopardize the present or future state of the franchise. Last year was basically worst-case scenario with regard to the low-risk/high-reward players and the team made the playoffs. If those guys had produced as they did in the past then the reward truly would be high. Low Risk/potential high reward, that's how I would categorize it.

No. He's too expensive for the Red Sox. 12.5m 23.0m 21.0m 21.0m 21.0m And then to get the privledge of signing Roy Halladay at near $20m too... I don't see it.

Have you actually spent time looking at what these different metrics are though? UZR--as ORS has pointed out--is literally people observing each and every play and comparing them to what average players would be able to do, and applying numbers to explain those differences. In theory it shoudl be very accurate; If it's wrong it isn't wrong in an entirely fundamental way. Chances are that the "perfect" system would categorize and count things more accurately, but that's not too far from existance. Everyone appreciates Jeter. I think you could say that without watching him every day you can't fully appreciate him, but the same could be said for any player that you don't watch. How can you say Pedroia is no Jeter when we know that you watch Jeter like a hawk and see Pedroia in random games, highlights and when he plays the Yankees? How about Buchholz or any of the other prospects? The same people who create offensive matrics have put their brains on defensive metrics and I'd bet that a number of them think they have developed a pretty good system. How will you know when that correct system is found? Bill James is pretty good at answering baseball questions and he's wrapped his brain around these problems; same with the rest of the great sabermatricians. I think there's pretty good stuff out there, even if it looks wrong sometiems. But the hardest part of enjoying the game of baseball is looking at the stuff behind the scenes. Generally the casual fan does nothing other than watching the game. While your generalizations may be accurate based on LOTS of observation, it comes across as similar to reactions of people who only watch a few games and generalize based on that. The numbers, in general, are the ultimate judge IMO. If a player had a "great" season it will be reflected in the numbers moreso than any random observation throughout the season.

So is it fair to say that your knowledge of current MLB players is based largely on this? If so I'd say it gives you a lot of clout with regard to Yankee players and the things you can extrapolate from that observation. Your opinion on most players from other teams, however, is largely based on a small sample size of observation from the stands. I commend you for your observation, seriously. I think you have a pretty keen eye and obviously care a lot about the game. However, you've acknowledged that you don't pay as much attention to numbers and you obviously don't have time to devote 50 games to most other teams. As you know, stats and metrics are very helpful for that task.

I think you're overblowing the pick thing. They only lose a first round pick for Scutaro if they don't sign a better type A FA. If they knew they were going to do that then it makes sense to not worry about that pick. At the same time, signing Scutaro helps them to not have to worry about SS--even if they pursue other SS. It was important that they solidify a SS option as quickly as possible so it isn't used as a negotiation tool against the FO (if only lesser options were available). It sounds like Scutaro wanted to come to Boston and took a reasonable contract. Two years with an option offers the Sox great flexibility and doesn't hinder them in the slightest. Other than the pick, in other words, it seems like a no brainer. If they know they're going after other type-A FAs (like Holliday or Mike Gonzalez or Rafael Soriano, say) then it is totally a no brainer.

Lowrie is the name you're seeking. Yes, he's been injury prone but he's an MLB ready, switch-hitting SS who would not be out of place in Toronto and would be a nice score as 2nd best piece in the deal. I think both teams would be crazy to give up two or more top caliber prospects for Holliday. The Yankees aren't going to meet the pitcher, shortstop, catcher requirements by giving up their best at each position and neither will the Sox. I wouldn't be surprised if the deal was hung up around the Sox not wanting to give something like Kelly, Lowrie and Exposito.

I see no reason to believe that this would prevent a deal or increase the likleyhood of a deal. If Hoyer can get the guys he wants then a deal is likely, if not it isn't. Hoyer may have his own favorites that aren't even recognized as favorites outside of the system and, thus, hold little trade power elsewhere. Perhaps he really likes Che Hsuan Lin instead of Ryan Kalish, or Stolmy Pimentel instead of Michael Bowden. I think there's a chance Hoyer can get more from Theo than Theo would ideally give up, but that doesn't mean (to me at least) that Theo would suddenly be out of trade chips to use in a deal elsewhere. If Hoyer's "inside knowledge" has him disliking someone that the rest of the league views as valuable, that seems all the more beneficial to Theo. Suddenly there are a lot of players who are "in play" in terms of dealing that wouldn't be if Towers or Ricciardi were on the other end of the phone.