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http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/playerbreakingnews.asp?sport=MLB&id=5757&line=280551&spln=1 Sox still very much in discussions for Aroldis Chapman. Not shocking, given that they have been very quiet about him. This seems like a really good fit for the Sox. It would bolster the top tier of their minor league pitching corp, it would given them depth to deal someone like Kelly for a hitter, or it would give them someone the Marlins clearly are interested in if they wanted to swing a megadeal for Hanley Ramirez. Oh yeah, it would also given them a 100mph lefty who could be used in a number of ways.

Mississippi is not Kazakhstan. His cell phone, radio, internet, cable/sat TV all work, undoubtedly. If nothing else I'd say it shows a considerable aloofness on Papelbon's part and is indicative of his relationship (or lack of relationship) with his teammates. Other players talk about text messages wih teammates or phone calls or e-mails... other players care about the fates of their teammates enough to pay attention to what happens to them. I'm not ripping on Papelbon, like I said, he's just a nut. I find this stuff enjoyable, but unrealistic.

I've seen this video linked on other sites but not here. I imagine it will be yanked from youtube soon, but it is called Adrian Bertle's fielding, so maybe it will stay available. In any case, wow: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8IKDeH9SEg His release and arm are outstanding and he has good quickness too. Notice some of the plays he makes halfway down the LF line. Amazing stuff. Defensively his upgrade from Lowell--even if Beltre regresses--will be substantial. EDIT: Notice the way that he positions his body on his barehand plays, for example the one with Orlando Cabrera bouncing the ball off the plate. He catches it as if it is in the midst of his throwing motion. The only way that play can be made.

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/columns/story?columnist=edes_gordon&id=4803511 Papelbon is a nut. He's certainly a great closer and I hope he stays with the Sox but it is stunning to me that he doesn't know what has been going on with his team during the offseason and, frankly, I just don't believe it. He didn't know they got Lackey, or that they didn't resign Jason Bay? This guy is assuredly going to be a FA in two seasons. He sees it as his responsibility to raise the salaries for all closers in baseball like Rivera did. This could be troublesome for the Sox in the longrun and I can already hear the panic in fans' posts about them not having a reliable closer. My problem is that Papelbon is likely to get paid more than hes worth in FA and the allure of two draft picks will probably be too much for the Sox to pass on, IMO.

The bullpen is the area that has me a bit worried, to be honest. I think they still have one of the best in baseball, but it has less established depth currently than it did last year. In 2009 it was a significant asset and it seems like an essential part of the "pitching and defense first" approach. I think they would be well-served with another option out of the bullpen.

This team has the potential to really shut other teams down. I think Ellsbury will be great in LF. He can focus on his offensive game while boosting the team's defense significantly, especially on the road. Meanwhile, Cameron is a professional centerfielder with some pop. Red Sox starting pitchers are undoubtedly happy about the team's new focus on defense. It is logical. Defense is somewhat undervalued financially. It is also the best way to maxamize the Sox inherent advantage, the rotation. It isn't obvious on the surface, but good defense can turn mediocre pitching performances into good pitching performances. They will have good gloves everywhere but SS and C and five good starters.

$9m for one year with a 5m player option? That's fine with me.

I'm willing to bet that a lot of the Sox prospects would be in MLB if they weren't on the Red Sox. Josh Reddick, Ryan Kalish, Michael Bowden, Dustin Richardson, Tazawa, etc., would all be kicking on the MLB door on a lesser club. Casey Kelly might see MLB time in 2010 if he were with a team with less depth (like San Diego). I just think the relative depth of teams is a determining factor in how long it takes for prospects to get to MLB level.

The larger point is still that Teixeira was traded for Saltalamacchia and two low-level players that few had heard about. Now it is clear that this was a good deal for Texas, but it took some forethought on Texas's part to take those low level players. This is why the whole "MLB Ready" requirement for any deal toward a big bat is BS in my opinion. Would a team really rather have Josh Reddick (who may be ready now) rather than Ryan Westmoreland (who will be ready in 3 years)? It is a GOOD thing to have low-level high-upside minor leaguers. They actually have a lot of value, even if they are a few years away. Hence my belief that one big thing that will change between now and the TDL is that the 2009 draft class will be available for trade. Renfroe, Younginer, Fuentes, etc., all have quite a bit of value as prospects and will be avialable then, but are not now.

Yes it would. It would be very different from how it is now, but that's definitely some good outside the box thinking. Every 5 minute game would be frantic and teams would win with scores like 18-15. Weird.

Sorry I didn't make that clear. It is relevant because just as the Sox couldn't easily purchase or develop replacements for Ortiz and Manny, the Yankees won't be able to do that with Rivera and Jeter. It isn't a criticism of any FO that they can't replace Manny and Ortiz (or Rivera and Jeter) it's just a fact of life, IMO. Any criticism about the Sox not having replaced Manny and Ortiz needs to be taken with the understanding that sometimes players are simply irreplacable. Rivera and Jeter will go someday (sooner than later) and that will completely change the competitive balance between the Sox and Yankees. It won't swing things completely in the Sox favor, but the Yankees could replace Jeter with Hanley Ramirez tomorrow and I would be happy because there's no assurance Hanley will be one of the game's best ever playoff performers and team leaders. Likewise, Rivera could be replaced with Papelbon or Joe Nathan and I would be happy. That's how good those guys are. They're superhuman, once in a lifetime, dynastic talents who apparently didn't take PEDs, avoided injuries, and didn't flake out on their team like Manny did. That series hinged on a stolen base by Dave Roberts and Curtis Leskanic getting out of jams in extra innings. Yes, the Red Sox earned their victory, but it was absolutely in the "crapshoot" realm of things, rather than the "better on paper" realm. I don't know about the Yankees 3 game winning streak (2 at home, 1 at Fenway) being a bigger fluke than the Sox winning 4 (2 at home, 2 a Yankee Stadium). The Sox tied games against Rivera twice in a row. That doesn't happen. I think 4 is more unlikely than 3. Honestly, my beef was never with you or your opinions. This discussion is more focused at a700's doomsday predictions based on how the team looks in January and his assumption that they are not going to get the big 1B/3B/DH bat that they need (they'll get Dante Bichette rather than Adrian Gonzalez). I think that reasonable Yankee fans have more confidence that Theo will keep this team ultra competitive than a700hitter does. This is all just a matter of opinion, but people posted here how they thought the AL East would play out. I wasn't the only one who thought the Yankees had the superior team. I never assumed that Teixeira would be the only guarantee in the lineup, as I tend to think of players like Jeter, Cano, Posada and A-Rod as perpetual thorns in the Red Sox side.

The Yankees offense is the difference maker IMO. No matter how good the other team's pitchers are, they will have to slog through a game to get a W. I think this has been the case since 2003. Think about the 04 playoffs, it wasn't like Schilling and Pedro dominated the Yankees. They worked really, really hard to get them out. When Papelbon enters a game against the Yankees it is never easy, same with Beckett, Lester, etc., The Red Sox added John Lackey who is undoubtedly an ace, but even in his good games against the Yankees he needs to work out of jams and pitch really well. Very few pitchers can ever just show up and shut down the Yankees (like Cliff Lee managed to do). I think a700 and I would agree that to beat the Yankees the Sox offense needs to be almost as intimidating as the Yankees offense. However, to win the division and/or make the playoffs it is all about the rotation staying effective and healthy through the course of a season.

This is all that we were discussing, no? Whether Giambi was the #3 hitter or not doesn't matter in the slightest (unless we're working under the assumption that the only thing that matters is the team with the better 3-4 hitter). When Rivera and Jeter and Posada and Pettitte are no longer on the club nobody will look at the Yankees the same either. How old is Rivera again? The first one that comes to mind is the ground rule double that took a run off the board, but I think its a pretty big break that the Sox came back from 4 down for the first time in the history of baseball. That's not something they could expect to happen more than once. Also, I should have stated before that your previous post talked about comparing the teams "before the 04 ALCS", which I should have addressed before. I was talking about teams on paper before the season started. Before the 04 ALCS I would have said that the Sox stood a good chance (though I wouldn't have said they were favorites, especially not after some of the epic head-to-head matches from the 04 season and the residual hangover from the devistating loss in 03). Comparable teams, but the Sox weren't favorites in my eyes. Which past years? You don't think the Yankees had an edge in 2009? They won the division in 03, 04, 05, 06, and 09, didn't they? They had a 2 year lul (baesd on a s***** rotation and under performances by highly paid idiots), not some sustained period of the Sox being the better team by far.

In 2004 they got breaks and the Yankees blew it. They traded one of their biggest "on paper" pieces to get 3 less attractive pieces, one of whom happened to get a very important SB, but that wouldn't have been predicted on paper. I think this perspective is just the hangover from the World Series. They're close, though I think we're in agreement that the Sox are just a bit behind. You weren't writing them down as favorites at the time. All of your praise for how well constructed they were are just revisionist history. At the time you thought Pedroia was average at best and you were convinced that Youkilis was nothing special at all. At the time you didn't think Matsuzaka was the best pitcher available, you thought he was a huge risk. If you thought they were favorites on paper it is only coincidental, because it wasn't based on the players who actually came through to help them win. Again, hindsight is 20/20. We can agree to disagree I suppose. We probably agree that they need to add one more bat, but whether that needs to happen now or before August is up for debate, and if the team can wait until the trade deadline to make that move and STILL make the playoffs, I'd say it would be a good team. I feel as confident about this team as I did about the team in 2007 and 2008, and moreso than I did about 2009.

They do compete with and beat the other quality teams in the Division and the league. In case you didn't notice, the Sox acquisition of Lackey took the Angels ace and put him on the Red Sox. The Angels are who the Red Sox have met time and again in the playoffs. Seattle may have passed the Angels (as some speculate) but the Angels are still a good team and a well-run franchise. They are certainly "competing with" the other teams. In terms of being able to beat the Yankees they are 26-28 against them head-to-head the past 3 seasons, including 9-9 in '08 and '09. They aren't a dramatically inferior team head-to-head.

The point of the season is not to beat the Yankees, it is to win as many of the 162 games as possible. I agree with you that a gap still exists between the Yankees and Red Sox on paper. Just like in other years, the Sox best chance may be for the Yankees to lose to someone else, or to beat them luckily (perhaps with some bad Yankees pitching performances) in the playoffs. If we are sitting here feeling dissatisfied with the composition of this team at this time next year I will join you in the complain-wagon. They have really built up the "contracts off the books in 2010" and the FA class of 2010 and their deep (see: trade-worthy) farm system, so I anticipate WS caliber teams not just in 2010 but through the length of Pedroia and Lester's contracts (as a point of reference). At this point I see them as wild-card favorites in 2010, and with some good chemistry and/or a good offensive pickup mid-season certainly capable of winning it all. I also think they have managed to set themselves up for a great 2010 draft class with 5 picks in the top 50. I see a lot more to be optimistic about than not with this franchise.

His OBP makes his (Boras's) salary demands questionable. His power mitigates it a bit, and his glove helps a bit more, but I don't think it makes up the entire difference. Again, I ask, if Mike Cameron signed for 2 years 15.5m, shouldn't Beltre get roughly the same AAV? Even with their age differences, Cameron is coming off a better year and has been the more consistent player.

With WARs that roughly match Cameron's, why should the Sox pay anything more than 2/15m for Beltre? Beltre might be a hidden value because of his defense, but all this "I'd like to see what he does outside of Safeco" stuff doesn't sway me. He's been around long enough for us to know what he does against MLB pitching. Safeco affects how often the ball leaves the park and the amount of room the ball has to find grass, but it doesn't affect whether he makes hard contact or not, or whether he has a good eye with the ability to draw a walk. OBPs of .342 and .320 (in his NON-down years) are unspectacular. He would be valuable because of his defense and his power, but the Sox shouldn't pay very much for that. If he wants to be a key contributer on a contending team, this is his opportunity. If he wants to get Boras-dollars the Sox should look elsewhere.