example1

I think the Sox will be looking at all deals they can make that don't involve Buchholz, Kelly, Westmoreland, Iglesias, and maybe a few more of their very top prospects. As frustrating as this may be for some of us, it makes a lot of sense. If Kelly and Westmoreland become what they appear able to become, why would they trade 2, 3, or 4 times that amount of talent to get someone who is already at that point? Personally, I don't understand all the hype around Kelly, but if his body projects to be 6-4 and he projects to have a strong frame with great command and stuff (per Gammons article) then I understand a) why they paid so much for him and coddled him allowing him to pretend to be a SS, and why the Sox would not be willing to move him. He sounds like Jon Lester, and thats worked out very well. The explanations about why they won't move Westmoreland seem a lot easier to understand IMO. In any case, I don't think we should be shocked if they plan to get the best pieces they can without moving that group, and then reap the benefits when their current group, plus those acquired players, plus the guys they saved, plus a few FA buys here and there, end up having an amazing team in 3-4 years. I'm not pretending that every prospect will make it, but I think the FO has shown that they are capable of knowing high-level talent when they see it. If they think Kelly is in the Buchholz/Lester class, then I'm willing to believe them and advocate for just holding onto those players. Josh Johnson would be nice, but I imagine the Sox opening up their minor league system without offering their very best pieces.

Alright guys, cut him some slack. We shouldn't expect him to be smug and accurate.

You have to define what a run is. I think it is reasonable to expect this team to compete every year. Whether that means they have a dynastic core or not is a separate issue. I think they're planning for a dynastic run, not two largely different teams surrounding two players (2004, 2007, Ortiz and Ramirez). I'm sure they will sign FAs again. The question is which players will the Yankees let through and of those which are the Sox willing to overpay to ensure they get? Draft picks are extremely valuable, so they should maxamize this by signing FAs in groups to avoid a significant draft penalty (like 3 years of losing your 1st round pick). I think this is probably right. I would consider landing Bay or Holliday a pretty major offensive move though, if only because it cements another lineup spot for the next 4-6 years. The Sox should compete into the playoffs next year and could be baseball's best team with some good "chemistry" and health and perhaps an addition or two. At the same time, they have a chance with prospects like Kelly and Westmoreland to add high impact, cost controlled players down the not-too-distant-road, so keeping them might be in the team's best interest. Remember how in 2007 Lester and Ellsbury both contributed to that WS as afterthoughts? Pedroia was an established player, but he was a rookie. I don't think any were as highly thought of as Westmoreland is through this point of his career. I also think given what we've seen from the highly touted Red Sox pitching prospects who have arrived on the scene, Casey Kelly must project really well for people to be so excited about him. If Kelly ends up like a RH Lester then we're really in for a treat in the next few years and any decision about "selling the farm" now could have big implications for the longterm success of this team from 2011-2017.

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/columns/story?id=4673829 Gammons on the possibility of trading for Gonzalez: Random quote, but if they're actually not willing to move Kelly or Westmoreland (or presumably Buchholz), I doubt they will get anyone like Gonzalez or Felix or (of course) Hanley or Fielder, etc., If I were another team I would ask for at least one if not both (along with other players). Also... Take it with a grain of salt, of course (it's Gammons), but that would be the fastest move through the system that I can remember for a Sox pitcher under this ownership group. Who am I missing?

Wishful thinking indeed. Why would Martinez sign a 2 year deal? Furthermore, if he's still useful then why would the Sox trade him "when they don't need him"... for that matter, why would any team trade for him if he's no longer good. I also like the idea of Mauer and Martinez, at least insofar as I don't think that having Martinez should be a roadblock to signing Mauer. Of course, I think that planning to move Mauer to the DH position is something the Sox can do if they have a chance to sign him. I'm not sure if the Yankees can. If that's the case then the Sox should be able to outbid just about anyone, except perhaps the Mets.

Please, more pictures of Jeter shirtless.... I think that's a great way to divert this thread... I'm not shocked at all by Ellsbury switching #s. #2 is a much more distinguished baseball number and switching is a sign that a player has "made it", so to seak. I've thought about getting an Ellsbury jersey (or a Buchholz one, hoping for longevity) but number 46 or 64 (or whatever it is) seemed so obviously temporary that I've been hesitant. #2 is probably here to stay for awhile so maybe it is safe now...

With team-owned networks a number of teams are doing very well for themselves. The Yankees have taken full advantage of their media market, and for that they deserve credit. I actually think that the Yankees needed to initially get lucky to win the amount they have over the past 15 years or so. They were able to build around some very important pieces that may not have landed there otherwise. Jeter and Rivera in particular. They have two essentially home-grown HOF players, arguably two of the best players at their positions of all time. Jeter would be in the conversation about best SS of all time. Rivera would be, hands down, the best reliever of all time. They added some great FAs to stay competitive over the years and eventually added A-Rod and CC and Teixeira. Now they're building around these guys and that should extend their competitiveness beyond Jeter and Rivera's careers. It really has been impressive, but beyond Jeter and Rivera it really has been buying a competitive team. It is completely in the Yankees financial interest to stay at least playoff-relevant year after year. I bet the cost in FAs pales in comparison to what they make by getting to the playoffs as the favorite every year.

I don't see why Detroit wouldn't be all over Felix Hernandez. I would think if Seattle is open to offers and already looking at both Granderson and Edwin Jackson that would be better than anything the Sox would be able to offer right now. Granderson has a lot more curb appeal than he does actual value, IMO. He's speedy, he's been a centerpiece of a key lineup and he plays CF. I like him as a person and a player, I just don't see him being worth what some teams will undoubtedly give up for him. Good moves by the Tigers to see what's available for him.

I think it is entirely within the realm of possibility that by 2012 Lester and Buchholz are the best one-two punch in the American League. Buchholz' stuff has been the more highly touted, but Lester's performance has been nothing short of All-Star caliber the past two seasons on the whole. Keep Beckett in that group with Matsuzaka and this team would be really good... with or without Wakefield playing (*a shout-out to the thread topic). I hope that eventually Buchholz puts it together like his video-game stuff would indicate he can. He looked like an entirely different pitcher last year from 2007 and 2008. He pitched to contact, he threw aggressive strikes and he let hitters make outs against him instead of pussyfooting around for the K. That seems like more of a mental shift than anything, and I imagine him maturing a lot over the next few years until he's ready to be an anchor in the staff.

Frodo speculates about the Tigers moving Cabrera (poorly, IMO): http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10374040/Trading-Cabrera-makes-financial-sense-for-Tigers Jesus, if the Sox could trade Papelbon and Lowell and only Stolmy or Lars for Cabrera they would do it in a heartbeat, right? I don't see Detroit being very excited about that at all, other than the cost savings.

Because they control him. :dunno: If they offer him a bit more money over two years then it could make sense. Otherwise he's going to arbitration and will end up on the Sox for 2010.

So who is foolish then, Gom? You. That's right. I don't think Scutaro and his high price would be worth the pick or two compared to 6 MLB years of a first round pick.

I was writing almost exclusively about scouting and the analysis required to figure out which individual players to prioritize through INTL FA or the draft, and which positions/assets/tools/skills to seek when those opportunities present themselves. Yankees win on the FA front every time. We will see. I'm still pretty confident about this team moving forward. I imagine there will be at least a few MLB regulars out of the group of Westmoreland, Renfroe, Anderson, Rizzo, Gibson, Reddick, Fuentes, Kalish, Lin, Exposito, Iglesias, Bowden, Kelly, Tazawa, Pimentel, Wilson, Younginer. That's 17 names who all project to be at least MLB contributors, many who project to be a lot better than that. I will be curious to see what the Yankees do when Jeter can't play SS and Rivera can't pitch anymore. They will still have Teix and A-Rod, but the loss of Jeter and Mariano will be about more than solely their production.

I agree except for Kotchman. Jonathan Papelbon-- yes Ramon Ramirez-- yes Hideki Okajima-- yes Manny Delcarmen--yes Fernando Cabrera-- no Jeremy Hermida-- yes Brian Anderson--no Casey Kotchman-- yes

They shouldn't but I could see Buchholz being the difference between the Sox getting him and not getting him, which means he might be included. At the same time, if Toronto is reasonable and the Sox really don't want to give Buchholz up (and they shouldn't, IMO) then a deal with other prospects should work too.

As far as I know, the Red Sox offered a lot to Toronto for Roy Halladay and Ricciardi was hesitant to deal within the division and turned down deals that included Buchholz--which is insane. One reason among many that he lost his job.

This also misses the fact that both Ellsbury and Buchholz have yet to show what they are likely to become. In 2008 Ellsbury was an extremely valuable defensive player. In 2009 he was a valuable offensive player. He has the tools to be able to combine them to be one of the team's most valuable. Buchholz has the ability to be this teams best pitcher, better than Lester or Beckett. I know that seems crazy to say, but I think it is entirely possible. In a few years, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester and Buchholz will still be in their primes. I think there is LOTS of reason to be extremely optimistic about where they could be in 2-3 years time. That said, I think there's just as much reason to be optimistic about the current group. I think they are one good move away from being ready to win the WS again in 2010. They were good talents, but they won't be missed in the slightest. People underestimate how good this farm system is. Wait until Renfroe, Wilson, Fuentes, Younginer, Volz, Jacobs, etc., enter discussions as potential trade pieces. They should be able to keep this up, year after year. The Yankees main strength is their ability to not care how much they pay for FAs. The Red Sox main strength is an excellent analysis and scouting department and an owner who is willing to pay well over slot to get high upside players. They have been going after a whole lot of really athletic players the past few years, which seems odd only because the Sox were--for decades--seen as a classically unathletic team by definition. It will be interesting to see how this direction of player acquisition will play out in the future. My guess is that they believe they have honed their ability to coach OBP and plate discipline and that now they hope to be able to coach that to players who have superior speed and athleticism. When/if that pays off it should be interesting to see; I imagine a future club that looks a lot more like the recent Angels and D-Rays teams than the 2004 Red Sox.

Looks like the Red Sox are in good shape to me. $43.48m for 2011 tells me they have somewhere near $80m in salary that hasn't been spent yet. Some of that will be arbitration, but that's still alot for a club like this to be able to spend.

The probability of all three happening is probably low. It is still what I would do to improve the team. I think the rest of your post seems very reasonable and in line with my thinking. Holliday and Halladay would be the necessary moves, Chapman would be the extremely aggressive move and the least likely among the three, as far as I'm concerned. This seems totally reasonable to me too. I've thought the whole time that Bay was more likely, but if this team is in line with my thinking then they will go for Holliday--for reasons that Dipre and I highlighted pretty clearly during the playoffs: defense, batting average and consistency, mostly. My thinking is that the Sox would actually be justified going after Holliday, probably at 5m more, because the differences between the two of them is important for their team moving forward. All in all, if their sign either then they haven't lost ground. For one year at $15.75m? I tink the Jays will want a fair amount. I'm also saying that a deal around the players I listed would be a very nice haul. Bard could be used too, and I suppose that if it means they can keep Buchholz I would send him. I agree about Hughes and Joba, but I think they are less important to the Yankees than Buchholz is. For a team that gets a big portion of its value from its farm system the Red Sox can't afford to send their best prospects without getting back a lot in return. For one year and a very expensive extension I can't imagine the Sox giving up Buchholz for Halladay. If they do it and resign Halladay I certainly won't be upset--it's just money dedicated to winning it all; for a single season it would be too much. Trade and sgn: Buchholz can go Trade no-sign: No Buchholz The Phillies are in a very similar position to the Red Sox. I think they both have a lot of reason to be aggressive right now. Both teams seem about one big move away from World Series caliber. These could happen as well. I just think the Sox pursuing Halladay again makes a whole lot of sense compared to all the options out there and I believe they pursued him very aggressively. If the Yankees believe they need Holliday then they will get him. You know it, and I know it. Some might argue about negotiation tactics or how badly the Sox want him, but the Yankees will like pay him $20m without thinking twice about it. It's sad. He would be their 4th highest paid player, and basically the highest paid player anywhere else.