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I think the deal would meet both teams' needs. I'm sure Kelly or Westmoreland would be demanded, and one would probably end up going. I'm pretty skeptical that Buchholz + any of them or Ellsbury + any of them is realistic though. My response wasn't so much toward you (you have a reasonable view of this stuff) but toward those who would happily package Ellsbury and Buchholz, or Buchholz and Kelly +, to get Adrian Gonzalez.

1.5m is a lot of money. It's an extra $4,109 per-day over an entire year, or $171 per-hour. It's an extra 200K college education for the kids in 2 months. It's an extra 40k car every 10 days. That's not an insignificant amount. I don't know about most of you, but that's a lot more money than I make and I would be happy to do a lot of things for an extra 4k per DAY.

So every sign points toward a hitter, but you apparently think it will either not be Adrian Gonzalez or you think they're not that interested in Beltre. Is that right? I think Youkilis or Gonzalez would be an excellent DH after Papi leaves, with the ability to spell one-another as much as necessary at 1B and Youk taking over for Beltre as needed. There shouldn't be a logjam there. Beltre would be a nice addition, but he's a piece, not the answer. I think a team could certainly win a World Series with Beltre manning 3B and Cameron in LF or CF, the question is who the other pieces will be. I agree that they are one big bat away from being a tremendous team. Teixeira was that projected bat initially, now they're searching for the next best thing and I'm pretty confident they will find him sooner than later.

You're not really asking this, are you? Cameron and Bay were comparable win-production-wise last year and most years before. Cameron's value came largely through his glove, Bay's largely through his bat. Scutaro is so much better with the bat that it outweighs their difference with the glove. This seems obvious. Fangraphs has Scutaro as the 5th most valuable SS last year, with 4.5 WAR, 9th in fielding, 6th offensively. He was the 12th most valuable SS in 2008. The Red Sox did not have a capable SS in 2009. He'll be a significant upgrade if he stays healthy and he'll provide some nice competition for Lowrie if Jed wants to take the position back.

An upgrade doesn't matter as much if it is from one guy who is very likely to get knocked around to a guy who is merely likely to get knocked around. If 2009 Vazquez shows up I think he could be their #2. If he regresses toward his career averages (especially in the AL) you will be looking to upgrade the rotation at this time next year.

Where is there talk of Branyon? Link? I think Beltre is the 3B version of Cameron. Both of them out perform their relatively shoddy offense with stellar defense. I have to think that the Beltre deal has been hanging on the team's ability to move Mike Lowell. His surgery may be a setback, but I imagine other teams would take him off their hands even with his recovery, particularly if the Sox aren't looking for much in return and are willing to pay much of his salary.

Are the merits of this deal based on who the replacement is, or whether Bay is actually a viable option by the end of the contract? If Bay were willing to sign a 3-4 year deal he'd be a Red Sox. As we've seen in the past, the Sox tend to make these types of decisions pretty well. If he is injured or can't play the OF in two years, the fact that they have Cameron instead of Bay will be a huge victory. If Cameron gets injured/sucks he can be replaced. If Bay did that he will not be easily replaced. This isn't the same as saying that Cameron is better than Bay, but his contract and abilities may be better for this team over the same timeframe.

Jesus, you need to just stop. Your team won the WS, do you really have to puff up to brag about how many miles ahead of the Red Sox the Yankees were? It's pathetic. It's not enough to watch your team celebrate on the field, you have to revise history to pretend that the Yankees completely dominated the Sox through and through. The Yankees had a great 2nd half and their highly paid stars stayed healthy and came through. Great, congrats, you had a great season last year Jacko. You really are awesome. By X W-L they were very close. Head to head they were very close. The Yankees were the better team, but they weren't miles ahead. They were just better. Be happy with that.

They Yankees are paying a number of their best players more than any player on the Sox make. Those players (like CC, A-Rod, and Teixeira) are better than comparable players on the Sox (with the possible exception of Youkilis vs. Teixeira). The payroll makes all the difference. Without the payroll those players would be elsewhere.

Agreed.

I would argue that the CC is the best pitcher of the bunch. Lester, Beckett and Lackey are all better than Burnett. When healthy, Dice-K and Pettitte are arguably equal and Buchholz and Joba are arguably equal. Buchholz is clearly the more projectable starter, in terms of build and durability. Joba's competitiveness cannot be called into question, neither can his stuff when he's throwing hard. As if to confirm what Dipre was saying, so can I. The Yankees lineup has been the better lineup for years... on paper at least. Don't count on it. They will get their big bat to add to this lineup, but not at the expense of having the best team possible... it might take awhile. Holliday and Bay just don't seem good enough to spend that much FA money on when Mike Cameron can be had for 15m/2 yrs and the team isn't hamstrung and still has financial flexability going into the 2010 deadline and 2011 FA class.

I would still be really happy if this team stayed "as is" and they went after Aroldis Chapman. I'm not assuring anyone that he's going to be a star, but I've watched a couple of videos that show the behind the batter viewpoint and he's got long arms and legs and really whips the ball in there. He's freakish in the way the ball leaps out of his hand. I would like to see what this team could do with Chapman and Kelly as the next group of pitchers to join the big club. At the very least paying him 5-7m/year to be a LH reliever to match Daniel Bard wouldn't be the hugest loss. The reports had the Sox offering something like $15m (unknown number of years). If they're really hot on this guy then I could see that as a "floated" offer to throw other teams off. Why would they expose how much they offered to him? They wouldn't, IMO. I could see a 20+m offer for this kid. A 1st round pick who simply makes the majors as mlb average is worth something like $15m over the course of his contract. An accomplished #1 pick type-player should easily be worth that if he gets to the show, and if they can sign him for long enough. He throws 100 and is left handed. He'll probably get to the show.

Let's be honest here though, it isn't like many teams bump against the tax threshold anyway, so it probably simply doesn't come up as useful that often. What other teams would need to go to the trouble of manipulating a contract to reduce one year's AAV? Not many.

So, if Bay really wanted to play in Boston he could sign a $7m deal with vesting options that drive the deal up in subsequent years, strongly impacting future luxury tax thresholds but not the 2010 one?

That doesn't answer my question but thanks for the link. Vesting options, not assured subsequent years. I realize that AAV is based on the length of the contract, that's common sense. With vesting options the actual value wouldn't be realized until the final incentives had been kicked in, right?. In other words, it's not a 4 year/$65m deal until the last year of the contract is turned on, presumably sometime during the 3rd season, after two years worth of payroll has been reported. I doubt that loophole exists, and I doubt Bay would go for it, but I was curious if anyone knew.

Do vesting options play into the luxury tax limit? Can they do a one year contract with 3-4 vesting contracts that each have their own AAV?

This is probably true, though you and I have no idea what the actual negotiations are. I doubt Theo has any interest in parting with Buchholz, Kelly, or Westmoreland. He should be confident that the team has many capable pieces that will be attractive--especially to the guys who were patting themselves on the back after the 05-09 drafts (McLeod and Hoyer McLeod knows these prospects as well as anyone, he drafted them: http://news.soxprospects.com/2009/08/q-with-jason-mcleod.html The Yankees have a great team, there's no doubt about that. I don't think it is in the Sox best interest to break the bank on Jason Bay. Bay probably isn't interested in signing at the price they're willing to pay him to be a LF and then take up 3-4 years hogging up the DH position a la 2009/2010 Mike Lowell. I think Bay is a better hitter than Lowell, but this FO really doesn't like to lack flexibility, either financial or positional, if they can help it. At least with Matt Holliday they can be reasonably assured that he can manage LF for a good portion of the contract. I'll be pleasantly surprised if they end up with either of them, at this point. I think getting Matt Holliday for a reasonable deal when the market seems quiet would be a good move, but I'm not sure how much that would cost. Likewise if Bay is really not interested in going anywhere that wants him (specifically NYM) then maybe he comes back to the Sox at a reasonable Ortiz-like deal. It's not my money so the luxary tax hit and lack of future payroll flexability doesn't mean as much to me as it probably does them. Signing Bay all-but assures the notion that Ortiz will be leaving town after 2010 and Bay is waiting to take his place; it could also portend an Ellsbury move. Clubhouse anxiety isn't a great thing on a team that is already playoff-good. They can't sign too many replacements for the expiring contracts without it causing some trouble, and they were quick to try to reassure Beckett after the Lackey signing.

If the Red Sox signed Matt Holliday today I think you would stop caring pretty quickly about what mistakes Dojji makes... even if you are right about the HR thing. Again, pretty slow news week.

Is any of this discussion even bordering on whether or not AG would be a good addition for the Sox? If not then why are you arguing? He may put a few more over the wall, he may merely lash some doubles toward the top of the monster. Being able to predict one way or the other makes little difference on whether he'd provide an impact for the lineup (he would) and by extension whether that would help the Sox be a beter team overall (they would). I think we all agree about most of this stuff. I'll chalk the arguing up to a slow news week...