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It is easy to jump on the Dunn bandwagon. He's a good power hitter, probably going to be a DH eventually, and is as consistent as they come. Yet, for some reason, the Red Sox don't seem interested in him. That was the case before he signed in DC and I haven't heard anything about them going after him now. The only reason I can think of is that his estimated value isn't what it appears to be to the rest of us. Fangraphs puts his value between $8m-$15m most seasons. That's not very much, given Fangraphs' inflated value for some other players with comparable offensive production. They see him as a DH or that he should be a DH because his defense is a HUGE negative (i.e., whenever he's on the field he actively makes the team worse). That's got to play into it somehow. That said, I would be more than comfortable with the plan that Dipre laid out with Dunn at 1B this year and at DH after. I just don't think it will happen.

Worst case scenario next year, IMO: Ellsbury Pedroia Youkilis (1B ) Ortiz (DH) Werth (LF) Drew Lowrie (3B ) Salty (C ) Scutaro (SS) That's not a horrible lineup, as it stands. They would need to sign at least one backup infielder (maybe get Felipe Lopez back, maybe Bill Hall, others...) and a backup catcher.

--John Henry, Twitter --Johnny Damon, NY Post http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/yankees/not_in_the_ballpark_B9cTNeZ2727OT9iMooroXP?CMP=OTC-rss&FEEDNAME=&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter What do these two quotes have to do with each other? Well, as soon as I read Damon's quote I think I figured out how, exactly, the game has changed so much in the past 5 years for John Henry. There are probably a number of things that have changed, but Damon's comments and the Red Sox recent actions speak to staying away from longer, expensive contracts with injury prone or older players. PEDs were great for improving performance, but they were also great for improving recovery from injury. Old guys who have significant injuries are really high risk if they can't "boost" their recovery and performance. Interestingly, I don't think this would be supported by pursuing Jayson Werth over Carl Crawford, except that Werth's skill set (as a Paul Bunyon type) will probably hold on longer.

Good post. I think most of this is realistic, except the Gonzalez trade. I just don't see it. It's a huge risk to take on a guy who just had surgery and who will proably want to test the FA market... of course, that might be the time to buy low. Kelly, Rizzo, Kalish and Doubront (plus whoever else you are willing to throw in) is a huge amount of talent for a guy who seems destined for Boston one way or another. To me, it makes a lot more sense to use those prospects on someone you can't get in 12 months (Upton/Hanley/Wright/Other?). I'm okay if they wait to deal their huge package of players until they can have a player they couldn't get otherwise. By spring training, I anticipate that arguments on this board will be between those who didn't think Theo did enough and the "our team will rebound" crowd. I definitely see myself in the later group. The 2011 pitching staff should be a better reflection of the $$$ that is being spent on it, and obviously having Pedroia, Ellsbury and Youkilis, plus a healthy Jed Lowrie, will mean a lot. I certainly hope they make a significant trade and will certainly adjust for the better even if they send away a big package of high-level prospects, but I think Theo is extremely conservative with his prospects and it has worked well for the most part. It just takes more patience, and in 2012 and beyond I think the team is better served with Kelly, Kalish, Doubront and Rizzo available to build with.

It will be interesting, though I imagine it ends with Jeter in pinstripes. I wish a team like the Dodgers would jump in and get a leader like Jeter. Isn't there a team out there with a little money to burn on a HOF? Please?

Saying that JD Drew is worth his contract (I agree) is different than saying that there are better players than Drew (there are). Dipre wouldn't dispute that. I've been a supporter of Drew throughout and simply see Werth is a better version. He will likely make more money than Drew because he's a better producer.

Of all the established players on the Sox, Ellsbury makes the most sense to move. I'm sure they are open to it. Also, I don't think that bottom of the linup is iffy at all. Lowrie and Salty are better offensively than they get credit for. Lowrie especially. I think that's the problem. No matter what metric/statistic one looks at, he isn't one of the very best players in baseball. He's very, very good, please don't get me wrong. He's just not deserving of being one of the only 20m/year players in the game.

This is an interesting observation that I noticed too. I think they would be amazing to watch together, but they wouldn't bat 1-2, and Ellsbury's most value seems to be from the leadoff position. Your post speaks to the difficulty of the Sox current situation. They have the ingredients for a great team, between current talent, money to spend, and a deep and rich farm system that could be moved for multiple pieces. However, they are also at a really important point where decisions they make now only make sense within the context of other moves happening or not happening.

When it comes right down to it, is there a single one of us who would be against getting BOTH of these players and having JD Drew disappear right now? I like Drew okay, but Werth is the RF that Drew kept people waiting for. If the Sox had Drew's $14m to spend I would propose getting Werth for RF and Crawford for LF.

Really good post a700. As I said in mine, Crawford strikes me as a better option but the numbers say Werth. Though to be fair, I used Baseball Reference for my stats and just noticed that Fangraphs disagrees (about WAR at least). WAR aside (or, indeterminate) I still like the numbers that I've seen from Werth the past few years better than Crawford's. I don't think Werth quite gets the love here that he deserves. He really is a good fielder with a very good arm. He's pretty fast and a very good athlete. Also, if the Yankees get Cliff Lee they will have two of the best LHP in baseball. Add the other good LHPs in the AL East and I think Werth's career .944 OPS vs. LHP might prove more useful than Crawford's .697. Crawford looks pretty bad against LHP. For $20m a guy should be pretty balanced, IMO. A couple positive points for Crawford: --He's a natural LF and that's actually what the Sox need --He's quite familiar with LF at Fenway --He and Ellsbury would be really fun to watch I think it is a good choice to have between those two players. I think either will prove useful. I hope if the Sox choose Werth fans will give him a chance. He's the type of player that Boston fans could really like. He plays through injuries, he hustles his ass off, he's scruffy but a great athlete. He goes about his work pretty quietly and has performed on the biggest stages. If he were the only FA available I think many Sox fans would be eager to get him. Of course, Crawford is an attractive alternative.

What numbers do you use to back up your point? Show me something from one of the many sites that do statistics or I will continue to think you're just talking out of your ass. EDIT: You may think Crawford is better. I would argue there's a very good chance he's overrated because of his speed.

Werth vs. Crawford. I think the Sox will ultimately end up with Werth. Here's how I think of it: --Both are very good players in very different ways --I am more excited about Crawford --Most people are more excited about Crawford --Crawford will cost more. Probably a lot more. --Crawford's contract will last longer. --Werth is probably more affordable --Even though Werth is older and less 'flashy' than Crawford, he's still a very good fielder and a dangerous bat. --Werth's skill set ages better and probably represents less risk --Crawford represents "going big", Werth represents strengthening the core of the team. I would be immediately happier with Crawford, think they will go for Werth, and expect that it might mean "going big" in another area. In terms of their production the past 4 seasons, I see a few things: 2007-2010: Crawford: 562 G, 2392 PA Werth: 543 G, 2086 PA TOTAL WAR (which includes defense) Crawford: 14.4 Werth: 15.4 WAR per-162 Crawford: 4.4 Werth: 5.3 TOTAL STATS Crawford | .303/.351/.457/.807 | 115 OPS+ Werth | .282/.380/.506/.885 | 131 OPS+ Honestly, it's a pretty close call. Crawford outdoes Werth in SB and in Total Bases, and is probably better defensively. Werth outdoes Crawford in overall power and plate discipline (.380 OBP) and is a good defensive player. Werth also strikes out more and has a lower AVG (which explains the difference in TB ). In other words, Crawford goes up looking to swing and it is reflected in his higher AVG and lower OBP. From a statistical point of view, I think Werth is the more valuable player. Add in the fact that he's going to be cheaper, is fine on both sides of the ball, and his game isn't as dependent on speed, and he's probably the Red Sox guy. As much as I love Crawford I'm also terrified of an older, injured version of the same player costing $20m per year for 6 years. I think poorly of teams that get themselves in those situations and would think poorly of the Sox for doing that too. With regards to Crawford being the more exciting and revenue creating player, I think what the Sox need is to win, and they need to win convincingly. If they put out a team that was on pace to win 100+ then they would be must-see baseball, whether Werth or Crawford are out there. If they are consistently dominant, people will be interested and tune in. Overall, I think they need to 1) get one of the two OFs, 2) make a significant trade, and 3) still plan on signing Adrian Gonzalez next year when he's a FA or at the deadline if the prospects match. That would be a young exciting and good team. I think the current team is primed for that scenario to happen if they play their cards right. Knowing this FO, that three-part approach seems more likely if they sign Werth rather than Crawford.

You just re-sarcasmed his sarcasm. Well done.

Do other teams not have the equivalent of those players? Barry Zito, Aaron Rowand, Javier Lopez and Travis Ishikawa just won a World Series. I don't need to say anything more. I find your baseball arguments to be pretty weak. I think you are taking notes about a team that struggled in 2010 and basing your judgments about those particular players on the Sox record. That's the wrong way to do it. If Pedroia and Youkilis and Ellsbury were healthy then this team could have won 95 games and possibly made the playoffs. With a few bounces going the right way (and quality SP from Lester, Buchholz, Beckett, etc.,) they could have gone pretty far. The difference in success or failure was not because of any of the players you listed. They are filler, this year's version of Curtis Leskanic and Gabe Kaplar. Please.

I actually do care. I can't wait for the day when Jeter, Mariano, Pettitte and Posada aren't part of the team any more.

Your dislike of the Red Sox compels you to come on a Red Sox message board? I think it is funny to see people like you and Felger exposing themselves as the pink hats they are. I bet Felger et al., won't be talking s*** about the Red Sox if ratings pick up again next July. Which way is the wind blowing today? I bet this team makes the playoffs next year and wouldn't be shocked if they win a WS. They have the core to do it and the Giants just won a WS and I'm pretty confident tht year in and year out the Sox are better.