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Edit your post Resident Old Fart! We shouldn't start the off-season thread without a verb. I was going to start this exact thread last night. I have absolutely no idea what is going to happen this offseason. I think they should think really hard about how they want to use the money that will be going to Papelbon. He's worth having on the team talent-wise, but they shouldn't pay him $11m for another 2010 like season. They could sign Rafael Soriano with that money and he could sign for longer than a year. I also think this is the year to try for a big trade.

What's the source? I believe it I'm just curious. What I don't believe is that the list included is comprehensive of who is "keeping tabs". If the Sox aren't keeping tabs then the entire FO should be fired. I can just imagine it after the bidding is complete: Theo: "Yu Darvish was posted? s***, we didn't even know that he was taking bids." Lucchino: "Yeah, we should have been keeping tabs" Theo: "Yes, we should have kept tabs". I haven't lost all faith in Japanese players being worth the posting fee.

You really think he's going to take $8m/yr? I hope he does, but I bet he would demand 3 years at $8m. If this team resigns Beltre and Ortiz for more than one year then we can virtually assure ourselves that Adrian Gonzalez, Albert Pujols, and Prince Fielder will not be coming this way as potential FAs. Given that Lars and Rizzo will be ready by that time, there may not be anything wrong with that scenario. It would undoubtedly be cheaper; I just don't know if they can handle a "down" season from Ortiz during either of those years and I feel like he's on the cusp of one.

Thanks. For a second there I thought Theo was just making s*** up with nothing to back up his assertions. Then I remembered that he doesn't really do that. Record. Set. Straight.

Probably not, but they might be able to do that package with Werth instead of Crawford. It might cost them $60m/year for the four of them. Obviously that would be a formidable lineup... Ellsbury Pedroia Martinez Youkilis Dunn Werth Drew Beltre Scutaro/Lowrie Drew and Scutaro would probably be gone the following season, opening holes for Kalish and Iglesias to join a solid veteran team in 2012 or 2013.

They might have the same body type, but Cecil Fielder wasn't nearly the hitter his son is. I thought it worked pretty well when the Sox had an elite, heavy, left-handed, DH-only player in their lineup. Fielder is going to be in his prime and he hates his father. Also, he's a jedi.

What would it take to get Prince Fielder this offseason? Would he help this team? Well, he led the NL in walks and had a really good OBP (.400+ for the past two seasons). He's also only 26 and is an established major league slugger. There's the weight thing, and obvious concerns about future injuries, but I saw this man's father and Prince is definitely a better hitter. Through their Age 26 seasons: [table] PLAYER | G | HR | RBI | BB | .BA | .OBP | .SLG | .OPS | Father | 379 | 82 | 216 | 136 | .261 | .346 | .536 | .882 | Son | 829 | 192 | 533 | 451 | .281 | .385 | .538 | .923 | [/table] Prince has a remarkable skill set. If they think he's going to stay healthy for 5 years or so then they could invest a lot of resources in getting and keeping him. His .385 career OBP is comparable to these current patient hitters: 10. Bobby Abreu .3998 11. Kevin Youkilis .3937 12. J.D. Drew .3878 13. Miguel Cabrera .387 14. Matt Holliday .387 15. Alex Rodriguez .387 16. Prince Fielder .385 17. Hanley Ramirez .3849 18. Travis Hafner .3845 19. Derek Jeter .3844 20. David Wright .3843 and his SLG is comparable to these current sluggers: 10. Lance Berkman .5457 11. Matt Holliday .5434 12. David Ortiz .5428 13. Prince Fielder .5382 14. Ken Griffey .5378 15. Mark Teixeira .5370 16. Chipper Jones .5361 17. Jim Edmonds .5271 18. Jason Giambi .5239 19. Adam Dunn .5223 20. Hanley Ramirez .5205 He's 14th in overall active OPS and ahead of Ortiz, Teixeira, Hanley, Dunn, Wright, Utley, Youkilis, Mauer, Adrian Gonzalez, and on and on. This team has a gold-glove caliber 1B, so he would simply need to DH. If he's available I think the Sox have to make an aggressive run at him. If they got Fielder I would be thrilled if they also signed Martinez and Beltre, plus a reliever or two. Ellsbury Pedroia Fielder Youkilis Martinez Beltre Drew Kalish Scutaro good lineup

If nothing else this team is showing signs of what they can be next year if things break the right way.

I don't know if it is a matter of "needing" to pay less than, or right-at, value. Doesn't that just seem like what most people would aim for? To me it seems like the sensible thing to do, any extra money is paying more than the player is worth. What kind of investment is that? I agree, but I don't think Adrian Beltre is absolutely essential to team success. It's the wins, not the particular player. It might be possible that for roughly the same amount of money they can get the same production from someone else or from some combination of improvements on the team. They have 3 spots to replace and a fair chunk of money to spend. They clearly think they can get 'X' wins from 'Y' dollars and that they can do this in many different ways. Why would they spend more than that? If they determine that most of the time they can get a win-above-replacement for $2m, why would they spend $4m? I don't think it is that easy, but a lot of times their approach seems to be adding a pinch of talent here, and a dash of talent there and the results have been decent.

Should the Sox pay more than what Papelbon is worth next season? I'm not sure they should. Again, I would rather they assure themselves of the ability to sign Victor Martinez and maybe save for one of Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez or Albert Pujols after 2011. I would be okay with them saving some money and structuring around that FA period.

Lowrie is a good player. He is playing well this year and his versatility both offensively and defensively is a huge asset. I think he will be a solid .360+ OBP guy for much of his career, which is extremely useful from the SS position.

At this point I'm compelled to agree with you--and this is what I thought a few months ago too. V-Mart is the player with the most unique skillset among the three potenial FAs. Beltre is next and Ortiz is last. I would not fault them for offering the 32 year-old Martinez whatever it took to keep him around for 3-4 years. The guy is an excellent MLB hitter and hits from both sides of the plate, while also happening to be able to catch, play 1B and DH from both sides of the plate. This team is much stronger off with Victor Martinez for the next few years. Players like him do not come around often. What would be ideal is if all three were willing to re-sign for reasonable lengths and decent prices. With the injuries this year the FO has got to be thinking that their original plan was pretty solid. If Beltre and Martinez re-signed then we would be looking at an offensive core of: (2011 age) 2. Martinez (32) 3. Youkilis (32) 4. Pedroia (27) 5. Beltre (32) 6. Scutaro/Lowrie/Iglesias (35) (27) (21) 7. ??/Kalish (??)/(23) 8. Ellsbury (27) 9. Drew (35) DH: ?? With DH open and players like Ortiz, Vlad, Konerko, Dunn, Lee, etc., all available I think the Sox could be in good shape to be very good for the next few years, maintaining their 93-97 win team standard. It is hard to maintain a highly successful franchise during periods of transition from one group of "stars" to another. I will be very impressed if Tampa Bay manages to lose Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena and Rafael Soriano and still reman competitive with a well-run team like the Red Sox. Hopefully that will give the Sox some breathing room to be able to bring up their minor league players with a bit of breathing room over the next few years. For this amount of money, the Red Sox should be a wild-card caliber team almost every year when other teams can only make a run every few years.

No rage here.... This is what separates Matsuzaka from the rest of the pitchers who are paid the same as him. He has the potential to pitch like Lincecum or Lester some nights, and the ability to pitch like Wakefield other nights. Most mediocre pitchers have a ceiling of "decent", whereas his ceiling is "excellent". What I--and the Red Sox, undoubtedly--hope is that he will be able to put together a great season at some point. His "successful" 2008 season is roughly the numbers I would expect from him in a good year, but the way he got there was just bizarre. Overall, I think he's a superbly talented athlete who hasn't had enough time and consistency to show in the US what made him a star in Japan. We have two choices: either the Japanese don't know baseball players or Matsuzaka hasn't pitched to the level that he did in Japan. I'm prett sure it is the later. From afar, I think he is actually a very talented pitcher with an above-average arsenal and if he put it together he would be poised to be one of the best pitchers in baseball. His outing tonight (9/26/2010) looked like what I expected his arsenal to produce when they signed him--namely, attacking the zone with a deceptive 93 mph FB and one of the league's sharpest sliders, while mixing between 4 seam FB and 2 seam FB and a very effective changeup. His stuff can be flithly. Heading into 2011 I would put the roation like this: Lester Buchhholz Matsuzaka Lackey Beckett Even in that order we're looking at a potentially excellent rotation. If any of the bottom-three have a good season (for them) then the Sox will have arguablly the best rotation in the AL. I'm a supporter of Matsuzaka and hope that the Sox continue to give him a good chance to be successful in the big leagues. I don't really think he's a bitch for being injured and I don't hold his lack of success completely against him. Becoming a great MLB pitcher is one of the hardest feats in sports and it has been interesting to watch him try to succeed. He had zero time in the minor leagues before entering MLB and is a product of a different system. He has shown flashes of brilliance and periods of inconsistency. Of course he's got an ego; anyone who has ever pitched understands how important it is to think that you are the most badass player on the diamond whenever you step out there. Guys like Beckett or Lackey appear to be cocky, arrogant pricks. Good. They should. Matsuzaka is a fine pitcher to have as a #5 for this club. He could have a long, successful MLB career when all is said and done. The return of his FB tells me that he has a few good years left in him.

Is there any chance that the Red Sox and Papelbon get into a disagreement this offseason due to his arbitration demands? It seems that he no longer justifies being paid as an elite closer, but that is what he will be asking for. I'd offer him $8.5m and try to sign him to a longer term deal--3 years/24m or so--and if he didn't take it I would save the 10m he would demand thru arbitration and let him go. That money could be the difference between signing Martinez or Beltre or not, and as an internally-developed player Papelbon has been playing the odds that he would make it to FA as an elite closer. At this point it is questionable whether he or Bard are the better closer. He's bound for a letdown upon becoming a FA. I think Martinez is undoubtedly the better player and Beltre is close.

Time for the Dojji and Yamico dissing to stop. Not adding much to the discussion, IMO. Navarro hasn't done enough one way or another to show what he would be capable of, but longterm I wouldn't be shocked if he had a key role on this team.

I'm interested in how much people would be willing to offer: Victor Martinez Adrian Beltre David Ortiz (take option or not? if not, how much?) as well as any others whose contract will be in question (meet Papelbon in arbitration? Re-sign Bill Hall? How about Darnell McDonald?).

Not if he returned to form. He would be a player who could play in the OF and run the bases decently. His bat wouldn't be as good but he could offer more overall if totally healthy.

Back to Beltran... I could agree with him essentially replacing Ortiz, assuming a deal could be worked out. He could share DH with a number of players like Youkilis, Martinez and Drew, and focus on his health playing LF. If he had a big season he could be a difference making player with something left to prove.

Right, and when we look at the standings--year in and year out--this team is near the top. 2010: 9th best record in baseball 2009: 3rd best 2008: 4th best 2007: #1 2006: 11th best record in baseball 2005: 3rd best (tied) 2004: 3rd best 2003: 5th best I see a team that is pretty consistently the best or second best team in the toughest division in the sport.

I don't want to nitpick, but the $103m the Sox have spent on Dice-K isn't entirely salary and doesn't impact this team's bottom line the same way that $103 would for most acquisitions. As an investment the $50m was a statement that the Sox are competitive on an international level and are a team to be reckoned with; it drew a lot of fan interest (even among die-hards) and was a truly interesting story. He is a hero in Japan, and whether people like it or not, there will be other Japanese stars coming this way. The Sox want to be able to get them. Thanks to the red-carpet they rolled out to Dice-K I believe they are now a destination team for Japanese players. They won a World Series with him on their team (a season in which he had 200+ IP and 200+ K) and they got to the ALCS the next year when he improbably finished with some really good numbers. He's a mid-rotation starter on most teams, which makes him a #4 or #5 on the Red Sox at best. This year the Red Sox paid him $8 million and still went up against the luxury tax threshold, despite having paid so much "under the table" with the posting fee. In other words, it afforded them some room under the 'cap' and they spent it on players rather than keeping it. Ownership has swallowed the loss, so far. I'm actually okay with having him on this team. Between Beckett, Lackey and Matsuzaka I'm not sure who I would bet on to become a #2 caliber starter again. With Matsuzaka's improved velocity and periods of effectiveness, part of me wonders if he will cap off his career in Boston with a good season or two. He's got the stuff he just needs to get his command back and spend a whole season healthy.

I would be okay with Beltran, but he would be another "buy low" older, expensive player. His upside is very high, but he has to stay healthy and after this season I would hesitate to give up any talent that could be used in other deals for someone more reliable.