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Don't get nervous. The bullpen will get a few arms, a few we will like, others we will be skeptical of. It is all about adding bullpen depth and versatility and hoping one of the better guys is able to be a shutdown reliever like Oki was when he first arrived. One of those guys added to Papelbon and Bard would make this a very good pen. They should have SP that can make it deeper into games, if all goes well with the pitching staff. Adding Scott Downs for a 2nd round pick would be a fine move. Continue to harvest the better players from our division rivals. :thumbsup:

Right, it was a bridge to adding Crawford and Gonzalez to an already really strong core. In the process they will still have some draft picks and a strong and deep minor league system. With their recent drafts they aren't far from being able to trade for another significant player or two over the next few seasons too.

Anyone in the media going to talk s*** about Theo's "bridge year" comment now?

Dave Cameron at fangraphs: Over the last two years, the only position players with a higher WAR than Crawford are Albert Pujols, Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, Joe Mauer, and Chase Utley. Crawford is ahead of sluggers like Adrian Gonzalez, Joey Votto, and Miguel Cabrera, but as we saw with Gonzalez’s extension, that kind of money for their skillset is considered acceptable. Just because Crawford creates wins in a different way doesn’t make those wins less valuable. If you buy into Crawford being an elite defender, then he is worth this contract, and maybe even a little bit more.

This is always going to be the case. The Sox just put together one of the most potent offenses in recent history with young players who seem to be genuine examples of the post-steroid era, aside from David Ortiz. Crawford is a freak of an athlete. So is Ellsbury. Youkilis and Pedroia control the strike zone better than most and play really solid defense. Adrian Gonzalez is an elite power hitter, the first former #1 draft pick the Red Sox have ever had. They put that team together by being selective and patient. Just as a700 feels delight about the Sox making a big splash and getting his player, I feel vindicated because their patience and wise financial moves (keeping Buchholz, signing Lester, Pedroia, Youkilis long term, giving up FAs to get drafts like Ellsbury, Lowrie, Bard, etc.,) all made this team even possible. Just as much as this is a response to the available players and the circumstances, it also represents a predictable "perfect storm" of FA/Trades that this team could have reasonably planned around doing since they lost Teixeira. We know they have coveted Gonzalez for a long time. They discussed it the year Victor was acquired, they discussed it last year, and then they made the move. We also know the Sox just offered a familiar LF in their own division the biggest OF contract (AAV) in the history of the game out of nowhere. I don't think they stumbled into this. Gammons has been saying for months (and I poo-poo'd him) that the Sox were hot for Crawford. They just offered him 7 years and offered Cliff Lee 7 years. That's not an impulse move, that's a planned, tactical move against the Yankees. In terms of team building it is genius. In terms of money spending it is decadent. In terms of hot stove action it is priceless.

C'mon man, it's the middle of the night where you are and your old buddy E1 is here. Nothin' for me?

Crawford's deal will be good or bad depending on the success the team has. LIke Jeter's overpriced 10 year contract, if Crawford wins multiple WS and makes the team a favorite year after year, the money will be less important than the personality and the overall consistency with which he produces.

A few weeks ago how disappointed would we have been for the Sox to get Crawford at 140/7? Probably not too disappointed. We would have understood that that is the price of a genuine impact player on both sides of the ball and the best available FA. To me it feels like an emotional overkill, like I wasn't over the whole Gonzalez signing and so it doesn't quite feel as sweet as it could. However, a few weeks ago I would have said they should sign Crawford for 2011 and then sign Adrian Gonzalez before 2012. Instead, they traded some prospects and paid 6m to make it happen a season earlier. I can't complain. Not at all.

With this FO, more often than not I think it is beneficial to take a step back. Instead of screaming "WHYYYY!" it makes more sense to try to figure out why. I think he puts them into the playoffs and hurts their closest yearly competition (NY, ANA, TX, TB ). It is well known that playoff teams make a lot more money, both because of the games they play and because of the interest it generates, which carries over to the following season in terms of ratings, public interest, tickets (home/away), etc., I bet it is a net-win $$-wise for the franchise, even if Crawford himself is overpaid relative to other similar OFs.

The team that signs Lee between those two is favorites for the AL West spot for a few years, IMO. Entirely important for both of them, and the Yankees. I love it. In my previous post I convinced myself of the validity of this move. It all makes sense to me now.

I see the absurdity of this contract. However, it could also be a great move for Boston. I think they overpaid. Most people do. However, for the wins he will probably get, and the wins they prevent from going to LAA, TX or NY it could be a move that puts them over the top with regard to the playoffs for the duration of Gonzalez and Crawford's contracts. If the Yankees don't get Lee they could be looking up at the Sox for a long time. Even if they do I'm not convinced they are as good as the Sox. At times it is worth it to pay over value to get the assured 5-6 wins that will put your team in the playoffs, where you get additional home games and increased national and international interest. I'm certainly not going to complain about the move. At the least, Crawford might under perform the value of his contract a bit while also putting the team in the playoffs year after year. In that scenario, he may be worth closer to $15m while being paid $21m, and he could put the team in the playoffs. Would the Sox FO be willing to pay that $5-6m for a near assured shot at a WS every year? Apparently they would, and I don't blame them for it.

I absolutely cannot disagree with this. We're all glad you're happy a700. You deserve it. Now we can both rejoice in how much we like Theo and this FO, huh?

Salary aside, this move makes a lot more sense looking at 2012 after Ortiz and Drew are gone. There aren't any good OF options next year. I love that a700 gets his way. Have always liked Crawford, so if true I will be really psyched to watch him. An OF of Crawford, Ellsbury and Kalish will be the fastest in the league.

Is there any way to see this as anything BUT a giant f*** YOU to the Yankees? They know the Rangers will drive up the price on Lee so they didn't need to do that. Instead, they'll get their second best option.

I'm skeptical. Waiting for further confirmation. Twitter has been hacked before, and so far it is only Pete Abraham. Seems like a lot to pay (though not as muh as I would expect for Crawford).

I don't think people fully appreciate the magnitude of contracts like these. They leave absolutely no room for error. If Lee hurts his arm in the first or second year of a 6-7 year contract then you're looking at real problems for any franchise. Yes, their upside is tremendous, but if you can get 85% the player for 1/10 the cost then you go in that direction and use the money elsewhere.

Beltran would be a smart move for the right pieces. They could even take on a good chunk of his salary. I like that he would be a FA after next season too. Increased flexability is a good thing and I love avoiding that Crawford contract with a switch hitter who has consistently put up more productive seasons. He's older and less-likely to get to his peak again, but even mediocre Beltran is 3-4 WAR.

The Red Sox really wanted Gonzalez and Werth, and Rizzo knew that. So he overpaid to get the prime free agent to a building franchise. Typing into a computer doesn't get that. --Gammons article http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101205&content_id=16259330&vkey=perspectives&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb Two things: 1) The Sox were playing ideally for Werth + Gonzalez 2) The Sox found it very inefficient to sign Gonzalez now, rather than when the AAV was in their favor, after spring training. Had to get agreement to principle aspects of the deal, which apparently got difficult and complicated. 3) Jayson Werth signing apparently motivated Sox to get Gonzalez done. 4) In other words, by losing him, Jayson Werth being removed from the Sox market may have meant they got Adrian Gonzalez instead If they "only" get Gonzalez, rather than "only" getting Werth then I'm happy. I had visions of both but that may have been unrealistic anyway. They may still make a run at Crawford, but that strikes me as a really dangerous situation. Here's how I see Crawford playing out, after such a dramatic day--I imagine I'll be wrong. He will feel pretty emboldened as a FA now. Common knowledge was that he was going to get the biggest contract, aside possibly from Cliff Lee, of the entire FA class. Now Werth signs not just for 18m, but for 7 years. Crawford will likely want more years and money than Werth. At the same time, the Nationals made this move because it apparently costs much more for players to agree to play for the Nationals. Crawford is unlikely to find another team that is going to intentionaly spend more money than he is worth just to prove a point... except possibly the Yankees. Maybe the Angels. Will other teams just stand firm at pretty substantial contracts, like what Werth just got? Why should Crawford get paid $20m? His numbers simply don't back it up, even when his very good defense is taken into account. I just don't see a 7 year, $20+m deal out there for Crawford, but will he hold out for one? If so, that's when the Yankees struck with Teixeira and I could see it again with Crawford. If teams stick at, say, 7 years, $18.5m (just more than Werth) the Yankees wouldn't think twice about jumping in at 7 years $19.5m or $20.5m or $21.5m and landing him. They can just sit back, see where the market settles, and swoop in at the last minute. No problem. Of course I recognize that when the Sox are the only major team competing for a player they can also just wait and pick. The Yankees can just do it with any player they want against any other team. It's ruthless.

This discussion must not be had without reference to something that is more important to the game. How do I compare a .298/.393/.511 (Gonzalez) season to a .321/.365/.553 .919OPS (Beltre), if they played different positions, hit in different spots in different divisions of different leagues in entirely different parks against entirely different pitchers? You know better than this... Those numbers can give you a good idea of the overall skills of the player, but none of those other factors can be accounted for. Furthermore, to account for those factors many metrics have been created to encapsulate the totality of potential influences. There are different metrics, but comparing the players values within those metrics in terms of Wins Above Replacement (fangraphs or B-R) or Win Shares (James) or Runs Created (James) or Value Over Replacement (Prospectus) offers a much better way of summarizing. You can have an objective scale on which to compare those guys, or just a bunch of non-interrelated numbers. I don't know how the WAR works out, for instance, on the situation you listed. Would be interested if you looked it up, what it would say. I think you also need to add a full year of a healthy Jed Lowrie (his minor league success and 2010 success make me optimistic), bounce back seasons from Beckett and/or Lackey, and a better bullpen to look at the equation fully. See above post in terms of other things that can change positively. Not-losing VMart or Beltre probably would have meant spending more than they are worth; that's unacceptable for players like those.

I've been off enjoying life the past few hours and haven't read, or commented on, most of the past few pages after a crazy last few days. Will get to those in a moment. I just wanted to officially praise the main group of posters here for this initial stage of the Hot Stove season. I have seen more regular postings of links and stories than I did in years past, and as a 5+ year member I feel like there's an active and alert presence among some of our members that really helps keep everything current in ways that weren't true in the past. I used to go to other sites exclusively in search of recent news. Throughout these past few days I get it here almost as quickly as anywhere else, and whatever is missing is easily found. The bickering and stupid arguments seem to be replaced by genuine disagreements about how a team should be won, a business should be run, or money should be spent. That's a medium that warrants further analysis and discussion. Personal attacks are pointless in general, but they are especially so in this online forum. Anyway, I appreciate it and encourage on-going discussion and appreciate the general balance of posteres here. thanks. E1

Can I just say, if this is true, thank you God for getting it done before I had to go back to work. In the same breath, damn you God for inventing the internet and the second-by-second updates that make this Red Sox fan upset.

Did someone else get Gonzalez? If not they didn't come in second.

I live out of town and can't get any regular Sox updates without downloading WEEI podcasts, sadly. I also listen to Felger etc., but I'm more used to WEEI.